Say what you like about the extra wild-card, it has certainly made things interesting. There’s really only a handful of teams in the NL who are out of the picture. Five (the Rockies, Giants, Mets, Reds and Nationals) currently have playoff odds below four percent, according to Fangraphs. Everyone else is at least in double digits, with the Diamondbacks sitting at 24%. There’s 66 games left, and still a lot to play for, as the second half of the season kicks off tonight, with the D-backs taking on the Cardinals
at Chase Field.
Arizona currently sits on a record of 49-47, two and a half games back of the Marlins for the third wild-card spot in the National League. The Pirates and those Cardinals are also ahead of the Diamondbacks, so winning this opening series after the break becomes doubly important. Not least because it’d give Arizona any potential season series tiebreaker against St. Louis, having previously taken two of three at Busch Stadium (one game there was postponed, which will now be squeezed in next Thursday, an unscheduled stop as the D-backs head from Phoenix to Washington).
It would also help make up GM Mike Hazen’s mind with regard to his philosophy as we approach August 3rd’s trade deadline, now little more than two weeks away. While Hazen’s contract runs through the end of 2028, with a club option for 2029, it does feel like the rest of this year may be his “crossing the Delaware” moment. [The silence on any contract extension for lame-duck manager Torey Lovullo seems telling] After making an unexpected run to the World Series in 2023, and Hazen being rewarded with club-record payrolls in 2024 and 2025, the team failed to reach the playoffs in either season, and the win total dropped from 89 to 80 wins last year. Failure again may prove fatal.
So what needs to happen for Arizona to avoid that, and return to the post-season for the first time since 2023? Here are five things which will factor into that. If they can address all of them successfully, I think they’ll be able to push their way back into the playoff picture. But that’s going to be considerably easier said than done.
1. Get production from first-base
Courtesy of Tim Tawa’s single-handed demolition job at Dodger Stadium, the D-backs no longer have the worst OPS at first-base by any MLB team in over a century. They’re now merely the worst team in the National League for over eighty years – the 1944 Boston Braves being the last such to post a figure below Arizona’s current .590. The good news is, things can hardly get any worse. But where the improvement will come from is less certain. Tyler Locklear has been called up, and was batting .313 for Reno over 54 games. But an .897 OPS is not all that for the PCL, and Locklear’s major-league performances have been lackluster. He may be a place-holder until Hazen trades for someone better.
2. Stabilize the rotation
At the start of the year, we were hoping to have Corbin Burnes back for the second half. That ain’t happening. Instead, we have Zac Gallen and Michael Soroka joining him on the IL, which has forced the team to give debuts to Jose Cabrera, who turned 24 in May, and the even younger Mitch Bratt, who celebrated his 23rd birthday a couple of weeks ago. Add in the struggles of Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt, and it doesn’t feel like a playoff rotation. By fWAR, Arizona’s starting pitching is 27th in the majors, mostly because their K-rate ranks dead last. Kelly and Pfaadt have looked better their last couple of outings, and that’s almost certainly going to be needed for the team to contend.
3. Staying centered
First base may have received all the criticism, but center hasn’t been much better at the plate: a .579 OPS there, ahead only of Cleveland. With Tommy Troy now joining Jordan Lawlar on the injured list, the options there become perilously thin. The fact Jorge Barrosa has made 65 appearances so far for Arizona, while batting .186, tells you all you need to know about the outfield situation for the D-backs. The return of Locklear may mean we see more Tawa in center. It’s another area where the bar is law for improvement. But while discussing the outfield, just moving to the right a bit, we could also do with Corbin Carroll getting out of his recent slump and returning to form.
4. Keep the Sewald intact
Overall, the Diamondbacks bullpen has been much improved, with their 4.00 ERA the lowest since 2018. But closer Paul Sewald has not been helping, with a 4.24 ERA which belies the fact he has 22 saves in 23 save opportunities. He had struggled in non-save situations (a 6.35 ERA across 14 appearances) and has shown an almost supernatural ability to shrink leads to one run before getting the final out. While those saves are in the books, it feels unsustainable. Since 2021, of the forty-one other closers with 20+ saves in the first half, only two had an ERA of even four.
5. Robust(ish) health
I’m not putting too much faith in the return of Burnes, Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk. They have all had layoffs of well over a year, and it’d be expecting too much for them immediately to regain their pre-injury form. What I am keeping my fingers crossed for, is an absence of any more significant injuries. There’s hardly a position on the diamond where I would feel fine, replacing a current everyday player with their backup. [Maybe 1B, because how low can you go?] The news that Geraldo Perdomo is getting cortisone injections in his wrist, does not inspire confidence. But it’s a long season, and by the end of it, just about everyone will be playing hurt. As long as they’re still playing…
To be frank, a one in four shot of the playoffs seems about right. It is about twice what it was on this date in 2025, although it feels like this version of the Diamondbacks has more glaring flaws. Still, after four days without baseball, I’m more than ready for the second half, and whatever it holds!
