Guardians fans will see Gabriel Arias as the team’s starting shortstop to begin 2026. How long will he stay there?
Readers of this blog may recall that I have been staunchly of the opinion that the Guardians should start Brayan Rocchio at short and let Travis Bazzana or Juan Brito try their hand at second base to begin 2026, allowing Arias and Daniel Schneemann to compete for the utility role. In over 1,000 major league plate appearances, Arias has a 76 wRC+. His defense at short – especially his bazooka
of an arm – has been good. But Arias is 342nd in wRC+ out of 360 MLB hitters with 1,000 plate appearances or more since 2021. That is simply not good enough to hold a place in a major league lineup.
However, Arias is about to get one more shot at proving a Guardians’ front office that apparently loves him like I love Matt Festa a chance to show their unreasonable faith is justified. Partially this is because Juan Brito did not do anything to win the second base job this Spring, and partially it is because Bazzana has not quite been busting down the door to make his ML debut. But, I genuinely think the Guardians still have a sliver of hope for Arias to become a valuable major league. Let’s look at what reasons for hope they may have:
–Arias is only 26 years old.
This is, reasonably, the last year an Arias defender can point to his youth. 27 is generally acknowledged as the peak age for the average major league player and by 1,200 plate appearances, the conclusions to be drawn about the average major league hitter are pretty sticky. There are always exceptions and late breakouts. But, within the general bounds of logic, the team shouldn’t have any doubts about what kind of player Arias is by the end of May, if he is given regular plate appearances and doesn’t show marked improvement. Arias will be handed the full-time shortstop job and all the runway needed to keep it. So, he will have no excuse of having to fight for playing time.
–Arias has shown an improved ability to avoid chasing.
It is hard to know what to make of Spring Training stats, but Arias has always had three primary flaws as a hitter: 1. He chases bad pitches, 2. He hits too many groundballs, and 3. He whiffs too much in the zone. Numbers 2 and 3 on this list have remained true in Spring Training so far, but Arias has cut his chase rate 15% from his career average and his overall whiff rate by 3%, while hitting the ball as hard as he ever has (his only skill as a hitter). Can he sustain this? Very probably not. But if he can make a significant cut in chase and a minor cut in whiff, he would give himself a chance at a 90 wRC+, which would make him a roughly 3-win player with his fielding skills at short.
–Arias was an incredibly clutch hitter last season.
It is useless to read much into one season’s worth of situational data. With that said, Arias had a 182 wRC+ in high leverage situations last season. For a player whose attention has often seemed to wander, he showed the ability to lock in at crucial moments last year. It’s not repeatable but it can give players a sense of confidence and calm at the plate that can carry over. Arias has tried to move his hand position and stand closer to the plate this spring. Perhaps the adjustments and confidence can provide some intangibles to give him slight improvements to inch his offensive output up.
-Arias’s glove at short has the potential to be GOLD.
When Arias is focused, he is a great defender at short. When he isn’t focused, his arm is still strong enough to cover over a multitude of sins. Arias and Rocchio provided great defense for the Guardians down the stretch in 2025 and they will get a chance to do the same to begin 2026. Perhaps that familiarity and trust will enable Arias to grow into the potential we have all seen in him since day one.
I believe by June, we will see Brayan Rocchio at short and Travis Bazzana at second base. But, I’ll be rooting for Arias to prove me wrong and make the team look like geniuses for sticking with him this long. Either way, we are about to find out the answer to “how do you solve a problem like Gabriel?” very soon.
