With the World Cup in full swing, it’s easy to forget that silly season is upon us.
With Florent Ghisolfi overseeing his first full transfer window at the helm, preaching “quality over quantity”, it’ll be interesting to see how the summer unfolds. I’m sure none of you have forgotten, but we have a European campaign to prepare for, as well as ensuring ‘second-season syndrome’ is avoided.
That said, I wanted to take a look at the squad, the numbers behind it, and some potential options for the recruitment
team to consider.
None of us know how the window will work out, but using last season’s knowledge and our current roster could help highlight some opportunities or concerns. Here, I’ll focus on how we can prepare for the future while also getting the most out of Granit Xhaka.
Xhaka is class.
I want to lay that out first, but to borrow a boxing phrase, “Father Time is undefeated”.
The Swiss international will turn thirty four in September, and Sunderland will play a minimum of forty eight games next season — up five from last term. Also, of the five games Xhaka missed last season, three of those led to defeats, albeit two of them were against Liverpool and Arsenal.
His importance to the squad is apparent through his leadership and composure, but ultimately we have no other game ‘controller’ in the squad, and we can’t — and perhaps shouldn’t — expect to get the most out of our captain in the key moments of next season without ensuring there’s an additional deep-lying playmaker in the squad.
You should never shop when you’re hungry; likewise, we shouldn’t be looking at options in the market before truly understanding what Xhaka is good at, and how he dovetails with the rest of our midfield options.
The graph above shows just how much Xhaka does for the team, both defensively and offensively.
That doesn’t serve to besmirch Noah Sadiki, but rather to show the level at which his captain is operating. Being in the top 25% of Premier League midfielders for successful passes and touches highlights his ‘conductor’ role in the team.
As we’ve seen so often, Xhaka looks to relieve pressure on the side through long balls, leaving progression through dribbles to Sadiki.
The DR Congo international’s relatively modest defensive contributions shouldn’t be frowned upon given the amount of distance he covers per game, but they also complement Xhaka’s physical profile by allowing him to screen the defence before making a tackle or interception.
So back to the question at hand: what are we looking for?
We’re looking for a ‘volume passer’, capable of relieving pressure through a significant number of successful long balls. Going forward, the Swiss international’s ability to control the tempo by getting on the ball before looking to create chances for the rest of the team should be mirrored.
Simple, right? A world class passer of the ball that can aid the team defensively and relieve pressure on the backline while also creating more chances than 60% of Premier League midfielders.
Whilst it may seem daunting, we may be able to find players who can contribute effectively, and even enable other members of the squad to make up the aggregate. Let’s aim for players aged twenty five and under, and without a price tag that will make Kyril Louis-Dreyfus’ eyes water.
Before laying out some options, let me stress that we’re looking at this purely from a numerical point of view.
Wouter Burger (Hoffenheim)
Joining us in next season’s Europa League will be Hoffenheim, who finished seventh in the Bundesliga last season.
One thing I like about Burger is that he joined the German side after two seasons at Stoke City, meaning he’ll have some familiarity with the physical nature of English football. At 6”2, he stands an inch taller than Xhaka, which would also help with what’s currently a small midfield.
The Dutchman started all thirty games during his appearances in Germany last season, contributing four goals and five assists, but really, he’s a true box-to-box midfielder, ranking in the top 10% of Bundesliga midfielders for tackles at 2.4 per game. Whilst his pass completion rate was around 6% lower than Xhaka’s at 77.5%, on average, he’s making, one more progressive pass per ninety.
To step into the role we’re asking of him here may require a slight transition to a more conservative mindset, but under Régis Le Bris’ and Xhaka’s tutelage, the twenty five-year-old could develop his decision-making and choice of pass on Wearside.
Valued at around €20m on Transfermarkt, this could be a savvy deal for us to look at.
Nicolò Fagioli (Fiorentina)
The twenty five-year-old came through Juventus’ academy before joining La Viola last season.
Like Burger, Fagioli’s game was more offensively than defensively-oriented last season, ranking in the bottom 20% of midfielders by defensive contributions.
That said, the Italian’s passing numbers are incredible and he ranks in the top 20% of midfielders for the following per-ninety metrics: successful passes, successful pass percentage, accurate long balls, chances created and expected assists.
Successful in over 60% of his dribbles, he often looks to counter an opposition press through smart touches before releasing forward players quickly with his long balls.
For me, Fagioli would serve as a compliment to Xhaka. Numerically his passing numbers are on par with our number thirty four, but stylistically, his defensive contributions are lacking and would require more responsibility from those around him.
Whilst perhaps not a perfect fit, there’s clearly a talented player here; for around €16 million, I wonder whether his dribbling and ball progression skills could allow Sadiki to sit a little deeper and cover off his defensive frailties.
Curtis Jones (Liverpool)
I don’t know if anyone is quite sure what Curtis Jones is.
A talented midfielder? For certain, but under Arne Slot and Jurgen Klopp, gametime was limited for the Scouser who’s now twenty five.
I’m sure Andoni Iraola will want to take a look at him, but will Jones want to take the risk of another manager’s assessment while Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Ryan Gravenberch and Florian Wirtz are on the books? Liverpool fans have already been vocal about their need to recruit a midfielder, and this could provide a market opportunity for Sunderland.
So, let’s replace Sadiki with Jones in our previous analysis.
Caveats are needed when we look at Jones.
Liverpool are obviously more ball-dominant than we were last season, and he played around 1000 minutes less than Xhaka, with sixteen of his appearances coming off the bench. From this, we can understand why his touches and passes pop, but his defensive contributions are also up there so he’s able to contribute on and off the ball.
He’s not only in the top 10% of Premier League midfielders for his successful dribbles, but also for the success rate of those dribbles
This means he’s not only capable of mirroring Xhaka’s passing prowess, but of adding another string to the bow of our midfield. Per 90, he’s with Xhaka by creating on average a chance a game, and I really think this is a player that’s waiting for an opportunity to display his talents.
The thing that makes this deal even more tangible is that Jones’ contract expires next summer and this is Liverpool’s last chance to cash in. For me, it’s a no-brainer to test the waters — asking costs nothing!
Joey Veerman (PSV Eindhoven)
PSV waltzed to the Dutch league title last season, with Peter Bosz’s men enjoying a lead of nineteen points over 2nd place. Veerman played in thirty matches with twenty four goal contributions and leading the side for assists with fourteen.
Turning twenty eight in November, if he wants to leave the Eredivisie, now is the time to do so.
We must look at Veerman through the same lens with which we looked at Jones — perhaps even more so given the dominance his side displayed last year. Purely statistically, he has a greater volume for the following metrics per 90 than Xhaka: assists, shots, passes, pass completion, long balls, chances created and tackles.
Where perhaps PSV’s success could be Sunderland’s risk, however, is in his defensive numbers.
He’s providing just under six fewer defensive contributions than Xhaka per ninety, although his defensive duel success rate is marginally greater than the Swiss’. The lower volume of defensive actions would be accounted for by PSV’s dominance, with the rate of success suggesting this could scale with a lower amount of possession.
When you take a post-peak age player from a dominant side in a weaker league, you take a significant risk. But his output and numbers suggest that his creativity and ability in possession could still contribute in Europe and domestically next year.
Christ Inao Oulaï (Trabzonspor)
I’ll openly admit that I’ve watched one game in which this lad played, but I loved every minute of it.
Cote D’Ivoire were so close to getting something against Germany and whilst Diomande, Kessie and our sweet prince Amad may have taken most of the plaudits, Oulaï stood out for me in the middle of the park.
Nagelsmann had his German side pressing incredibly hard in Toronto, but Oulaï’s ability to turn, shield the ball and recycle possession quickly greatly helped ‘Les Éléphants’ get the ball to their wingers who were causing the Germans headaches all evening.
In that game alone, he completed 100% of his five dribbles, made four tackles, two interceptions and completed 90% of his fifty attempted passes. Again, it’s a single game, but it was a single game against a superior opponent who’ve been coached to press their opposition off the pitch.
Still only twenty, the Ivorian made twenty five appearances in the Turkish Süper Lig last season for a Trabzonspor side that finished third, so let’s see how he stacks up compared to our skipper.
He’s completing a similar number of passes at just under fifty per ninety minutes, albeit at a slightly lower success rate which is mirrored reflected in his long ball success rate. His defensive contributions are also significantly lower than Xhaka, ranking in the bottom 30% of midfielders in Türkiye for this metric.
This profiles the Ivorian as a player that’s more adapt at fast ball progression under pressure, allowing for transitions through quick passes through a tight midfield areas.
At twenty, there’s still chance for the lad to develop, both physically and to round out the defensive elements of his game. But if he can relieve pressure in key moments of the season for us as he did against Germany, it could be a smart bit of business for us to do.
Connections to Yaya Toure have been made and with Barcelona, Manchester United and others sniffing around, if Sunderland want to make a move, they should do so promptly.
Valued at around €25 million could we add another young African midfielder to the side?
