The Washington Nationals season was sunk by many things, but a poor pitching staff was the biggest culprit. They posted a 5.35 ERA as a team, the highest in franchise history. It will take a lot to fix
that, including help from outside the organization. However, there is help on the way from a couple guys returning from injury.
Both Josiah Gray and DJ Herz have shown glimpses of being quality MLB pitchers at points in their Nationals career. However, neither of them threw a pitch in 2025 due to Tommy John recovery. Both should be back at some time in 2026, and could make an impact.
I want to start with Herz because he is actually the guy I am higher on right now. He was acquired at the 2023 trade deadline in a move that sent Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs. It quickly turned into one of those Mike Rizzo masterclass moves. Candelario was decent for a couple months in Chicago before leaving in free agency, while Herz broke out in 2024.
DJ Herz was someone I was so excited for in 2025. His 2024 season provided so much promise. He threw 88.2 innings while posting a 4.16 ERA and struck out 106 batters. It was not perfect, as his command was inconsistent. However, when he was on, Herz could be dominant. We saw that in his masterclass against the Marlins where he struck out 13 and walked nobody.
Despite the 4.16 ERA, a lot of the metrics thought he was better than that. His xERA was 3.26 and his FIP was 3.71. Herz’s mid-90’s fastball created so much deception and got whiffs at over a 30% clip. His changeup was also very solid, and was seen as his best pitch by most scouts. Herz had a level of swing and miss in his game that only MacKenzie Gore could rival among Nats pitchers.
He was one of my breakout picks heading into 2025. However, his season was over before it started. After a rough Spring Training where his velocity was down and his command was all over the place, Herz was shut down with elbow soreness. Eventually, he had to go under the knife, which cost him the whole 2025 season.
Since he got the surgery so early in the season, there is a chance Herz is back by Opening Day. However, a return in May or June feels more likely. As we saw with Cade Cavalli, Tommy John recovery can be tricky and the timeline is fluid. We should see Herz pitch at some point in 2026 though.
Assuming the stuff looks like it did in 2024, he will be a big piece of the rotation. Strike throwing has always been a question with him, but it was better than expected in his MLB stint. I am super excited to see DJ back on the mound because he is super fun to watch when he is on his game.
While Josiah Gray is a bigger name than Herz, I have more questions about him. He had his surgery all the way back in the summer of 2024, but did not appear in any games last season. Having only made two starts in 2024, he has basically lost two full seasons. Even before that, I was bearish about Gray.
While he was an All-Star in 2023 and posted a sub-4 ERA in 159 innings, there was plenty of luck involved. His FIP and xERA were both around 5 that season. Gray was also striking out fewer guys and walking more guys. His velocity was also dipping.
There were a lot of red flags in his profile, and now the injury adds another one. Gray came to the Nats in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade. He was supposed to be a plug and play MLB starter who could immediately be a middle of the rotation arm.
His stuff was really good early on, but the results weren’t there. The fastball was in the mid 90’s, touching 97 and his slider could be a wipeout pitch. However, he had a big problem with home runs, especially on that fastball.
Over the years, he added a lot of different pitches and became more of a junk baller. That was a reaction to his home run problem and his velocity falling over a tick from 2021 to 2023. By 2023, Gray was throwing 7 different pitches. He had some success, but it did not feel sustainable, at least to me.
While Gray did not pitch in the MLB this season, he did throw in some rehab starts at the end of the year. We got some pitch data, and the velocity was not pretty. It is important to keep in mind that he was making his first outings after Tommy John, but his fastball was in the 90-91 MPH range. In that AAA rehab start, Gray also leaned almost exclusively on his secondary pitches, only throwing 4 fastballs in 45 pitches.
Gray’s velocity will be one of the things I am going to watch for in Spring Training. If it is still in that 90 MPH range, I am not going to be high on him at all. It is very hard to succeed throwing 90 MPH in today’s game, especially as a right handed pitcher.
If Gray can show up throwing around 93-95, I would be much more encouraged. With his deep mix, he can survive in that range. I am curious how the Nats will use Gray next year. He is going to have to earn back his rotation spot after all of his time out.
While they both have question marks, DJ Herz and Josiah Gray should at least be somewhat helpful in getting the Nats rotation back to respectability. Neither should stop the team from investing in starting pitching, but both are useful options for the team. It will be interesting to see how the pitching staff shakes itself out in 2026.
