Don’t expect the final version of this bracket to differ too much from what I release before the Selection Show. For a time on Saturday afternoon, it looked like we might have a new No. 1 seed in the South, thanks to Florida’s no-show against Vanderbilt. But both Houston and UConn lost in their respective title games, with the Huskies’ loss to St. John’s being particularly gnarly. So, we have the same four top seeds as in yesterday’s projection. The Gators’ “reward,” however, is being paired with second-seeded
Houston in the Cougars’ backyard for a potential South Regional final. And you can bet Kelvin Sampson’s team will be amped for that possibility.
After reviewing the Cut Line profiles and learning that B.J. Edwards would be available for the postseason for SMU, I moved the Mustangs back into the field, replacing San Diego State following the Aztecs’ loss to Utah State in the Mountain West final. The Ponies are the penultimate team in, so it’s Texas who could drop out should Dayton win the Atlantic 10 title and the Committee see fit to keep VCU in.
More on that in today’s TV preview, which follows the second-to-last bracket projection of 2026.
NOTES:
- Changes since Saturday’s bracket are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
- Teams that have clinched auto bids are in ALL CAPS BOLD.
- The highest-remaining seed in an active conference tournament holds its auto bid.
(1) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) DUKE (ACC)
▼(16) QUEENS (ASUN)
▲(8) TCU
(9) Iowa
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Texas Tech
(12) HIGH POINT (Big South)
(4) Arkansas (SEC)
★(13) HAWAI’I (Big West)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) North Carolina
—/▼(11) Missouri/Santa Clara
(3) Illinois
(14) WRIGHT STATE (Horizon)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Kentucky
▼(10) NC State
(2) UConn
(15) SIENA (MAAC)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Florida
(16) LIU (NEC)/HOWARD (MEAC)
▼(8) Miami (Fla.)
▲(9) Ohio State
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Kansas
(12) MCNEESE (Southland)
(4) Nebraska
(13) NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Tennessee
★/— (11) SMU/Texas
(3) Michigan State
★(14) KENNESAW STATE (CUSA)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(7) Clemson
▼(10) Saint Louis
(2) Houston
(15) FURMAN (SoCon)
(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
—/★(16) LEHIGH (Patriot)/PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (SWAC)
▲(8) Villanova
▲(9) UCF
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▼(5) Alabama
(12) AKRON (MAC)
▼(4) Virginia
(13) HOFSTRA (CAA)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Louisville
(11) VCU (A 10)
▲(3) Vanderbilt
(14) TROY (Sun Belt)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Saint Mary’s
(10) Miami (Ohio)
(2) Iowa State
(15) TENNESSEE STATE (OVC)
(3) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) ARIZONA (Big 12)
(16) UMBC (AE)
(8) UCLA
▼(9) Georgia
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Wisconsin
(12) Yale (Ivy)
(4) ST. JOHN’S (Big East)
★(13) CALIFORNIA BAPTIST (WAC)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
(11) South Florida (American)
(3) GONZAGA (WCC)
▼(14) NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) UTAH STATE (MW)
▲(10) Texas A&M
(2) Purdue
(15) IDAHO (Big Sky)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: Saint Louis, Miami (Ohio), NC State, Texas A&M
Last Four IN: Santa Clara, Missouri, SMU, Texas
First Four OUT: San Diego State, Oklahoma, Auburn, Indiana
Next Four Out: New Mexico, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Stanford
Also Considered: Cincinnati, West Virginia, California, Florida State, Dayton, USC, Tulsa, Nevada
ARRIVALS (5): California Baptist (WAC), Hawai’i (Big West), Kennesaw State (CUSA), Prairie View A&M (SWAC), SMU
DEPARTURES: Louisiana Tech (CUSA), San Diego State, Southern (SWAC), UC Irvine (Big West), Utah Valley (WAC)
Conference Breakdown
SEC (10): Florida, Vanderbilt, Arkansas (auto bid), Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri (First Four), Texas (First Four)
Big Ten (9): Michigan (auto bid), Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, Ohio State, Iowa
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami (Fla.), NC State, SMU (First Four)
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU, UCF
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s (auto bid), Villanova
WCC (3): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara (First Four)
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, VCU (auto bid)
MAC (2): Miami (Ohio), Akron (auto bid)
23 one-bid conferences
Selection Sunday’s Viewing Guide
- All times are p.m. Eastern.
No one officially entered the field yesterday—or will today—but Championship Saturday is almost here.
Championships (5)
Ivy
(3) Penn (17-11, 9-5) vs. (1) Yale (24-5, 11-3), 12 (ESPN2)
The Bulldogs defeated the Quakers twice, but Penn’s visit to New Haven on February 21st only resulted in a 74-70 Yale win. While the Bulldogs are likely to be a 12 seed with a win, a Quaker victory would result in some shuffling between lines 12 and 15.
Atlantic 10
(4) Dayton (23-10, 12-6) vs. (2) VCU (26-7, 15-3), 1 (CBS)
The Rams really needed Saint Louis to beat the Flyers yesterday. A loss to the Billikens would have been more helpful to VCU’s at-large case than a potential one to Anthony Grant’s current team. Now, Phil Martelli Jr.‘s club could find themselves frozen out with a loss today.
SEC
(4) Vanderbilt (26-7, 11-7) vs. (3) Arkansas (25-8, 13-5), 1 (ESPN)
In Saturday’s first semifinal, it was the Commodores who looked more like national title contenders than the very off Gators. Can they repeat that performance against the Razorbacks? Arkansas needed OT to knock Ole Miss out of the bid thief race. As you can see above, I moved the ‘Dores up to a 3 seed and the Hogs to a 4 heading into this afternoon’s showdown. The loser might see themselves drop down a seed line. But since it is a Selection Sunday afternoon game, who knows.
American
(2) Wichita State (22-10, 13-5) vs. (1) South Florida (24-8, 15-3), 3:15 (ESPN)
While it feels like it’s been forever since the Shockers made the field, it’s only been five years since their appearance in the COVID-affected 2021 Tournament’s First Four. The Bulls, on the other hand, last qualified in 2012, when they reached the Second Round out of Dayton. USF last won a conference tournament title in 1990—when they were in the eight-team Sun Belt of that era.
Bryan Hodgson’s club is the last 11 seed in this bracket. Paul Mills’s squad might very well be in the same spot with a win given the late tip in Birmingham.
Big Ten
(7) Purdue (26-8, 13-7) vs. (1) Michigan (31-2, 19-1), 3:30 (CBS)
Don’t expect the Boilermakers’ placement as the last 2 seed or the Wolverines’ positioning as No. 2 overall to change given the late hour of this one.
The Selection Show 6 p.m. Eastern on CBS
I’ll have one more projection for the road before the real thing is revealed.
