Is David Fry good?
For David Fry’s major league career, he has a 110 wRC+ with a 128 wRC+ against LHP and a 92 wRC+ vs. RHP. So, good news, everyone, we have our swing-man for 2026 with Fry’s elbow hopefully back to snuff for him to play catcher, first base or left/right-field as needed, primarily against lefties. Right? Right??
Not so fast, my friend. In 413 plate appearances since June 1st, 2024, David Fry has a 77 wRC+. During that time, he has only an 84 wRC+ against lefties. His chase rate increased
from around 27% to begin 2024 to around 37% since and his swinging-strike rate has risen from around 11% to around 16%. He’s around average in bat speed and hard-hit rate, but he’s simply not hitting the ball near often enough to make that a meaningful measure. Most alarmingly, his in-zone contact rate has sunk to about 8% below-average from where it was to begin 2024 (right around league average 85%).
Folks, I come to you today as a David Fry truther. I have defended him as a lefty masher who holds a lot of value as a guy who can credibly play 3-4 positions for a team. And, to be fair, I was right in 2024. But, Fry is now about to turn 30 in a month and his chase/contact issues which were present in the minors appear to be too much for him to continue to overcome over a sustained stretch in the big leagues. There is, of course, the chance that Fry’s elbow was bothering him more than he realized in 2024 and that, perhaps, he could never find his rhythm in 2025. In August-September, Fry did manage to put up a 95 wRC+ against LHP, so maybe that’s a small sign of life. However, that should not be enough for the Guardians to plan on Fry being their primary first base/right-field option against LHP and a useful 3rd catcher for late-game substitutions for Bo Naylor or Austin Hedges as he was in 2025.
Fry has THREE minor league options, which should be a great asset to the Guardians. In an ideal world, Fry would open the season in Columbus getting steady reps between catcher, first base and the corner outfield. He would be available in case of injury or in case of him showing he could return to April-May 2024 form for contact and plate discipline metrics. But, Fry is clearly seen as a team leader who commands a lot of respect on the roster. I am skeptical that if Fry is here, the team will be bold enough to stash him at Triple-A. They may also find it untenable to have Fry take reps away from better prospects in Columbus, which is understandable.
The elephant in the room, of course, is Fry’s recovery from being hit in the face by a 99 mph pitch from Tarik Skubal late in the year. In some cases, one would wonder if a player might have their hitting approach permanently affected by this trauma. For me, I don’t think Fry will suffer ongoing effects in this case. He gives off the clear indication of being an incredibly tough individual who is able to move on from baseball trauma – and that’s part of the job description for a catcher.
I can’t help but hope the INEVITABLE nature of Fry’s appearances against left-handed pitching from 2024 makes a return appearance in 2025. It’s possible it will with a healthy offseason of work put in. Fry seems like a really good guy and is easy to root for in the extreme. But, I have to admit that the odds are better that Fry is simply a serviceable backup catcher who will hit left-handed pitching at around a league average rate. Those are valuable players to have, but not someone who should be rostered on a team with division/title aspirations when that team has already signed a backup catcher in Austin Hedges.
