Did the Buffalo Bills break Drake Maye last season?
Of course I’m referencing after halftime in the second meeting between the Bills and Patriots in 2025, when Buffalo erased a 24-7 deficit to win 35-31 in Foxboro.
Maye has been almost an entirely different quarterback after emerging from the locker room in that contest.
In his 13 games before hosting the Bills in Week 15 last season and including the first half of that game against Buffalo these were his statistics (13.5 contests):
- Completion rate: 71.8%
- Yards per attempt: 8.87
- Pass TD: 23
- INTs: 6
- Passer rating: 111.9
- Sacks taken per game: 2.52
In the first half
against Buffalo in that game, Maye was 9-of-11 for 108 yards (9.8 yards per attempt) without a touchdown or interception.
And here are Maye’s numbers starting with the second half of that Bills game onward, entering Week 4 this season (9.5 contests):
- Completion rate: 64.4%
- Yards per attempt: 7.75
- Pass TD: 15
- INTs: 12
- Passer rating: 88.1
- Sacks taken per game: 3.89
In the second half against Buffalo in that game, Maye was 5-of-12 for 47 yards (3.9 yards per attempt) without a touchdown and one interception.
Because I can’t split EPA per play by half, if Maye’s EPA per play is calculated in the 13 games before he faced the Bills at home in Week 15 last year, it was a seismic +0.286. For reference, Josh Allen’s EPA per play (not counting plays with a penalty) in his MVP season of 2024 was +0.260.
Then, counting the Week 15 Bills game and afterward until now (10 contests), Maye’s EPA per play has sunk to +0.068. For perspective here, that figure is in the range of rookie-year Bo Nix and 2024 Geno Smith, his last campaign with the Seahawks, using nflverse data to calculate EPA.
Now, of course, in the playoffs, Maye did deal with a challenging stretch of defenses; Chargers (No. 5 regular-season EPA per play allowed), then the Texans (No. 2), then the Broncos in the AFC title game (No. 7), before facing the Seahawks in the Super Bowl (No. 1).
But in the final three games of the regular season in 2025 post-Week 15 loss to the Bills, Maye faced the No. 19-ranked Ravens defense, the No. 31-ranked Jets, and No. 23-ranked Dolphins.
And thus far in 2026, the Jaguars are No. 2, Seahawks are No. 3, and Steelers are No. 12 in EPA per play allowed defensively. So Maye hasn’t had it particularly easy since Week 15 of last year, but the performance-dip has been seismic.
Per the Patriots own website, the Bills played with a single-high safety on 42.9% of his drop backs in the first half of that fateful Week 15 game before switching to a two-high look on 86.7% in the second half.
And Maye struggles vs. two-high looks continued in the rest of the regular season and throughout the playoffs, as his passer rating was only 89.2 against them vs. 110.9 against single high.
Thus far in 2026, per Fantasy Points Data, Maye does have a robust 9.48 yards-per-attempt average vs. two-high safety alignments but four of his six interceptions have came against them.
We’ll see if Maye’s downward trend continues this Sunday in the new Highmark Stadium.
If it does, now you know the tipping point came during halftime of last season’s loss to the Bills.
