College football was back in full force last weekend, and with it came our first chance to witness these quarterbacks we’ve been studying all summer. Now, as promised, I will begin giving weekly updates on how each of them is performing this season.
Since we’re observing a large pool of quarterbacks and staying open to the idea that additional prospects might emerge this year, I will be doing all of us a favor and splitting this into multiple articles.
I appreciate you going on this maiden voyage with
me. Each week, we will speculate whose stock is rising and whose is falling. Whether you watch college football religiously or not, these articles will essentially act as a journal of the process for us. If you’re watching a lot of the games yourself, it’ll be a good reminder of how our thoughts on a prospect might evolve from September to April, and hopefully help us improve our process over time. If you’re too busy to catch the games — which is understandable — these articles can keep you in the loop at a fraction of the time, or will be there for you in April when you want to look back at how people reacted to these quarterbacks in real time.
In this first entry, we’ll look at our five finalists from our Quarterback Dating Game series. Then, in an article coming out Saturday morning, we will take a look at several of my other favorites from our summer series, including three who made strong first cases for entering the Round 1 discussion.
With that in mind, we might as well address the loudest elephant in the room…
Arch Manning
The result: Texas 7 – Ohio State 14
The stats: 17-30 (56.7%), 170 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 9.8 ADoT, 4 big time throws, 2 turnover-worthy plays, 1 sack
9 rushes, 39 yards, 4.3 YPC
There’s no sugarcoating it; the runner-up in our final fan vote did not make a good impression in his first game as the Longhorns’ leader.
For much of the day, the Texas offense didn’t seem in rhythm. As the game wore on, the pressure only mounted for Texas. A packed house of ravenous Ohio State fans had The Horseshoe rocking, and they only grew louder and louder with each passing minute of a dominant performance from the Buckeyes’ defense.
Manning’s footwork was not sound, which led to him attempting several throws from arm angles that diminished his accuracy. All day, he struggled with sailing passes and/or throwing behind his receiver. The further the game went on, Manning also seemed to grow uncomfortable in the pocket, and he seemed like a young passer who was pressing.
To the Buckeyes’ credit, they had sound coverage for most of the day. In man, they were stuck to the Texas receivers’ hips. In zone, they took away the deep ball and dared the young signal caller to take the checkdowns underneath. Sometimes Manning did, and the Ohio State defensive backs had a great day of diagnosing and tackling. Other times, Manning would pass up the check down to force the ball into double coverage deep, like he did on a throw in the second quarter (1:31 in the video above). Later, still trailing 7-0 late in the third quarter (3:32), Manning forces another throw deep that hangs too long and allows the defensive back to undercut the receiver for the interception.
To make matters worse for Arch, his high profile ensured that not only would college football fans be discussing his disastrous 2025 debut ad nauseam, but that we’ll forever have video of his uncles reacting to that interception.
It was a tough showing for Manning, but it wasn’t all bad. Late in the game, Manning started to flash some of that potential that has evaluators so intrigued. On his touchdown throw (5:26 in the earlier video), Manning does a good job of climbing the pocket as the pass rush rounds the corner and closes in behind him. The ball placement was also superb, though hats off to the Buckeye defensive back who still nearly made a play on the ball. Another long pass Manning completed (5:53) had me get out of my seat and is a clear example of Manning’s ability to time up and hit tight windows when his mechanics are right.
I think it’s also worth noting that this was Manning’s first away game as a starter. That’s a tough task for most young quarterbacks. That the opponent is one of the predominant programs in the sport — and that they employ a former NFL defensive coordinator who was scheming up ways to disguise their coverage shells — makes it an even more challenging debut. In general, we need to relax and not allow ourselves to be prisoners of the moment. I’m fairly confident that Manning will improve with experience, and he has all the resources at his disposal to do so.
I preached all summer that Manning would likely need more time and that I expect him to come out for the 2027 draft rather than this year. Last week was a firm reminder of why that might be the wisest approach for Arch.
Up next: This Saturday, Texas hosts San Jose State
Cade Klubnik vs. Garrett Nussmeier
The result: LSU 17 – Clemson 10
The stats: Klubnik — 19-38 (50.0%), 230 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 9.4 ADoT, 1 BTT, 1 TWP, 2 sacks
7 rushes, 22 yards, 3.1 YPC
Nussmeier — 28-38 (73.7%), 230 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 4.4 ADoT, 1 BTT, 1 TWP, 1 sack
5 rushes, 12 yards, 2.4 YPC
In our other marquee matchup of Week 1, two of our finalists squared off against each other. Fans of high-scoring affairs may have left disappointed, but I thought both quarterbacks performed well under difficult circumstances.
For Klubnik, Clemson lost its number one receiver, Antonio Williams, in the first quarter to a hamstring injury. Williams missed the rest of the game and is listed as day-to-day, meaning he could miss this weekend’s game. He struggled to find a receiver to step up in Williams’ absence, as Clemson receivers were credited with three drops in the game.
Secondly, a revamped LSU defense made some strong adjustments after halftime that limited the early success Clemson had found getting Klubnik on the move. Linebacker/tweener Harold Perkins is now being deployed in a roaming “Star” position for the LSU defense, and he began to spy Klubnik, giving the Clemson quarterback fits.
Klubnik didn’t do himself many favors, either, as his touch was sporadic much of the night. He also struggled with sailing balls, including on his interception:
Klubnik wasn’t a complete disaster; he did make some clutch third-down conversions and NFL throws, as well as displaying the mobility that makes him a versatile prospect.
Some highlights timestamped with the above video:
- (1:31): Klubnik finds T.J. Moore in rhythm on a 3rd-&-5 for a 26-yard catch-and-run
- (1:44) Klubnik converts a first down with his legs and shows some elusiveness, shaking a defender to get the necessary yardage.
- (2:22) Converts on fourth down deep in LSU territory by finding Bryant Wesco Jr. on a drag route that goes for 21 yards.
- (2:55) On 3rd-&-Goal from the 14, finds Tyler Brown, who gets to the one-yard line and sets up a rushing TD on fourth down.
- (3:07) Layers the ball (almost too much, but it was completed) over the linebacker to convert third down with a 19-yard completion
- (4:48) Evades pressure and rolls to his right, buying time for his running back to come open on a late release that converts a third down.
- (5:05) Finds his tight end on an in-breaking route that goes for 20 yards.
- (6:34) Takes a hit from the defender as he throws, but finds Moore for a 19-yard strike in the two-minute drill.
But in the end, it just wasn’t enough against LSU.
This won’t help the narrative about Klubnik in big games, but just as I did with Manning, I’ll caution patience. We shouldn’t overreact to one result, especially from the first game of a long season. Clemson still has games against a currently ranked SMU squad, a currently ranked Florida State team fresh off an upset of Alabama, and their annual showdown with South Carolina, which is also currently ranked. Should they make the College Football Playoffs, we’ll have other big games to evaluate Klubnik in.
For what it’s worth, Klubnik shouldered the blame for the loss after the game when speaking with the media. It will be up to him to get things turned around for Clemson.
Up next: Clemson hosts Troy this weekend.
As for Nussmeier, he didn’t necessarily fill up the box score either, but he executed the Tigers’ game plan expertly against a defense that features several potential first-round prospects. A quick glance at Nussmeier’s average depth of target in this game (4.4) should tell you how suffocating Clemson’s defense is after the LSU passer had an ADoT of 9.5 in 2024.
This summer, we discussed that what Nussmeier lacks in size, he makes up for with his football IQ and ability to diagnose where pressure will be coming from pre-snap. But don’t just take it from me, here’s longtime NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay raving about Nussmeier after the game.
You can’t fully appreciate Nussmeier’s command at the line of scrimmage and the adjustments he makes prior to the snap in a cut-up like the one below, but it does give us some of the highlights.
It took the LSU signal caller until the second half to really get the offense rolling. Through tight coverage and an unrelenting pass rush, Clemson’s defense essentially dared LSU to take the short gains and string together long drives, something LSU grew more successful in as the game dragged on.
- (1:10) Nussemeier sells the pass to the right, then finds Zavion Thomas for 19 yards on the backside dig.
- (1:55) Nussmeier shows he does have the mobility to run a designed QB run, picks up the first down with a 10-yard run.
- (3:45) Throws the ball in a ridiculously tight window for a 14-yard gain to Aaron Anderson. Nussmeier fires this thing low and into the only place he could for his receiver to make a play while three Clemson defenders are near in coverage.
- (3:56) Follows that up with a 16-yard dot to Bauer Sharpe running a slot fade near the goal line that initially looked like a completion, but Sharpe failed to get his foot down. Still and impressive throw.
- (4:09) Rolls away from pressure and finds Kyle Parker for a conversion on third down to set up goal-to-go.
- (5:00) Absolutely robbed of a 29-yard touchdown when officials ruled Barion Brown didn’t complete the catch. Absolute dime from Nussmeier, and everyone watching without allegiance to Clemson was yelling at their TV. LSU would miss a field goal to end this drive.
- (5:54) With pressure collapsing the pocket on either side of him, Nussmeier slides up in the pocket and delivers a strike that helps draw a pass interference call.
- (6:42) Exploits the one-on-one matchup and throws back shoulder to his 6’7 tight end, Trey’Dez Green, for the game-winning touchdown
LSU had two more possessions after taking the 17-10 lead. Needing to maintain his reputation as one of the most frustrating and conservative coaches in the college ranks, Brian Kelly all but took the ball out of Nussmeier’s hands on both possessions, asking his quarterback to throw a series of screens. Clemson’s defense did its job, forcing two punts and holding on to the victory.
It was a solid performance by Nussmeier, even if the box score doesn’t immediately indicate it. He outdueled Klubnik and showed why he is currently FanDuel’s favorite to be the number one overall pick.
Next up: LSU hosts Louisiana Tech this weekend
LaNorris Sellers
The result: Virginia Tech 11 – South Carolina 24
The stats: 12-19 (63.2%), 209 yards, 1 TD, 0 Int, 7.9 ADoT, 1 BTT, 1 TWP, 4 sacks
12 rushes, 55 yards, 4.6 YPC, 1 TD, 1 fumble
In what was a theme this week — and for many of football history’s Week 1s if we’re being honest — Sellers’ showing against Virginia Tech highlighted why he is such a tantalizing prospect, but still has plenty of room to grow.
- (0:16) Running an RPO, Sellers finds big target Nyck Harbor on a post route at the sticks that turns into a 20-yard gain.
- (0:32) Caps off the opening drive of the season by converting a 3rd-&-5 into a 15-yard rushing touchdown off a QB draw.
- (0:51) Second drive, after the running back is stuffed on back-to-back carries, Sellers converts a 3rd-&-11 with a scamble to his right. Breaks one tackle when the defender is only able to grab Sellers’ shoulder. The next two plays are dropped passes that stall out the drive.
- (1:34) Pinned inside their own 2-yard line, Sellers is a tad impatient and doesn’t see two separate hitch/stick routes come open. He starts to scramble before in the beat right before they came open, but he didn’t have to. He had time before the pressure would have gotten there. He’s sacked and takes a safety.
- The next two South Carolina series are three-and-outs.
- (3:07) Sellers doesn’t manage the pocket well on this one as he climbs the pocket into the incoming defender and has the ball punched out.
- (3:45) Sellers throws a beautiful ball to Harbor that should have been a touchdown, but Harbor doesn’t complete the catch. The receiver got two feet down, but the ball started to shift as he began to fall out of bounds, and the defensive back punched it out as he went to the ground. South Carolina has to settle for a field goal instead.
- The Gamecocks had two drives in the third quarter that led to a punt, lasting six and four plays, respectively. The game went into the fourth quarter with South Carolina holding a narrow 10-8 lead. A punt return touchdown near the beginning of the fourth quarter gave the Gamecocks a 17-8 lead, but the Hokies would respond with a field goal to make it 17-11.
- (5:51) Then, on the third play of this drive, Sellers uncorks one to Harbor. The Gamecocks use play action to buy the size-speed freak time to break open downfield, and Sellers throws a beautiful ball that goes for 64 yards and the score.
- (6:19) The Gamecocks intercept the ball with roughly four-and-a-half minutes left in the game. After a pair of negative runs, Seller ices the game with this insane scramble on 3rd-&-13, breaking out of two potential sacks to ice the game.
It wasn’t a perfect game from Sellers, but it showcases why he is already one of the most talked-about quarterback prospects. You can’t teach his tackle-breaking ability, and finding a quarterback who has that kind of power, but also the speed and elusiveness Sellers possesses, is truly rare and special. I also think this game highlights that the “inaccurate” label some have already placed on Sellers is mostly bulls**t. Stereoypically, that’s a flaw that might be common in players who have this type of rushing ability, but Sellers consistently has good ball placement.
If there’s an area he needs to improve, it’s getting the ball out quicker. His average time to throw against Virginia Tech was 3.25 seconds. And while it’s true the Gamecocks run a lot of vertical concepts that necessitate the quarterback holding the ball longer, there are still plenty of plays where it takes Sellers too long to decide on if he’s going to scramble or hunt for an open receiver. I’d also like to see Sellers’ pocket management improve — think back to that safety — but at the same time, he’s such a special runner that you don’t want to take away that part of his game.
It’ll be a fine line to balance, and I’m curious to see how it progresses for Sellers this season.
Next up: South Carolina hosts South Carolina State this weekend
Drew Allar
The result: Nevada 11 – Penn State 46
The stats: 22-26 (84.6%), 217 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 7.1 ADoT, 0 BTT, 0 TWP, 1 sack
5 rushes, 31 yards, 6.2 YPC, 1 fumble
It was a very Allar game against Nevada. Allar threw the ball 26 times compared to the 36 rushing attempts on the day for the Nittany Lions. While he didn’t fill up the score sheet, Allar ran an efficient offense, and Penn State’s rushing attack carried the day. He isn’t necessarily why they won, but it’s hard to complain about the results. Penn State scored on its first nine possessions, which included the eight Allar was a part of before he was pulled from the game with a big lead.
Here are some of the highlights:
- (1:49) First throw of the game, Allar sees the boundary corner bailing deep and the slot corner crashing down on the slot receiver. Makes the quick decision to get the ball out to his outside receiver at the marker to convert the first down.
- (2:12) Allar shows that while he isn’t an explosive runner, he has a good sense of when it’s the right time to tuck it and run. With none of his pass catchers breaking open but his offensive line opening up a lane, Allar gets four yards on a second-and-medium to set up a third-and-short.
- Nevada throws an interception on the first play of their next drive, setting up Penn State inside the 10. Penn State gets to 3rd-&-Goal from the one-yard line, but a high snap forces Allar to fall on the ball, and the Nittany Lions settle for a field goal.
- (5:43) Allar demonstrates his NFL-level arm, making out routes look easy on this wide-open throw.
- (5:57) Again, Allar demonstrates the NFL juice in his arm. Pump fakes the bubble screen and then attacks the soft spot in Nevada’s zone by rifling a pass to the sideline near the first down marker.
- (6:03) This one is a little funky, as it actually happened in one play before the pass in the bullet above this one, but this highlight video gives us the replay. With all day in the pocket, Allar times this stop route perfectly and fires a bullet that gets to the receiver just as he’s getting out of his break, 18 yards downfield.
- (8:22) Allar again showing a feel for when to tuck it and run on this 11-yard scramble. Doesn’t quite pick up enough to convert the 3rd-&-13. Drive ends in a field goal. You’ll see a receiver open running a shallow drag route, but there are two defenders waiting to rally and tackle anything underneath.
- (10:17) Penn State is in the two-minute drill before the half. Once again, Allar gets all day to throw, eventually sliding to his left and letting one rip 31 yards to the end zone. The placement, low and outside, is great as it gives his receiver a chance to make a play on the ball, but shields the ball from the defender who has inside leverage and is trailing the receiver and trying to make up ground.
- Allar’s third quarter isn’t too eventful. He picks up a few more yards on some short passes that result in yards after the catch, and then is pulled with the game well in hand.
Not a lot to criticize here from Allar, but hard to draw anything conclusive from it. We already knew that he had the arm talent to make NFL throws and a willingness to throw over the middle, but Penn State hardly had to lean on that against an inferior opponent. A lot of his throws were near the line of scrimmage to his backs or a motioning receiver springing open in the flat.
If he can keep up this efficiency against tougher opponents, and especially in games where Penn State’s running attack is less effective, then we might discuss moving him up our draft boards more substantially.
Next up: Penn State hosts Florida International this weekend.
Well, that’s it for our five finalists. Check back Saturday when I highlight more action from Week 1.
Which quarterback impressed you most in Week 1? Have your thoughts about any of these prospects changed? Who are you hoping the Steelers draft? Let us know in the comments!
