The No. 9 Michigan women’s basketball team concluded its Big Ten Tournament run on Saturday, falling to No. 7 Iowa, 59-42, in the semifinals. The Wolverines are a projected 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament following the loss. If that seeding holds Selection Sunday, it would tie the program’s best-ever seed and mark the second time Michigan hosts the first two rounds of the tournament.
March Madness Forecast
Hosting is all but locked up, as the Wolverines have already been selling tickets to the first two rounds in Ann Arbor.
“If we would have said at the end of the last year, what’s our goals coming in, we wanted to be a top-20 team,” head coach Kim Barnes Arico said Feb. 8. “We wanted to maybe potentially host (in the tournament). We didn’t think we would be a top-10 team all season long.”
Michigan has been ranked in the top-10 of the AP poll since Week 3, with a high ranking of No. 6 overall. The Wolverines remain No. 6 in the NET, with a 9-6 Quad 1 record and an unblemished 16-0 in all other quadrants, while going 14-1 at home. Barnes Arico’s statement holds true, five ranked games later, in a stretch where Michigan’s only losses were to the Hawkeyes. Hosting and a top-10 team, despite stumbles against Iowa, the Wolverines are in a strong position heading into the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan is tied for fourth-most Quad 1 wins nationally, reflecting its difficult strength of schedule. Key wins include a 39-point victory over No. 22 Notre Dame, a rivalry sweep of No. 20 Michigan State, an overtime win at No. 11 Ohio State, and a Senior Day victory vs No. 17 Maryland. Quality losses include No. 1 Connecticut, No. 2 UCLA, and then-No. 5 Vanderbilt, each by a three-point margin, mirror the Wolverines’ ability to keep games close against high-profile opponents, with the exception of the Hawkeyes.
Oregon head coach Kelly Graves, who led the Ducks to a Final Four in 2019 with National Player of the Year Sabrina Ionescu, had high praise for Michigan following the Wolverines’ 80-58 Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal win on Friday.
“They’ve got a legitimate Final Four kind of team,” Graves said. “I’ve been there. I know what it takes. They’ve got playmakers. They’ve got depth. They’ve got size. They’ve got the ability to score in different ways from different levels, and they’re tremendous defensively. Yeah, Kim’s got a heck of a team, and I’m looking forward to see how far they can go, not just in this tournament, but the next one.”
Earning respect across the conference and country, the Wolverines are in prime position to make a deep run. Hosting the tournament has been program-altering in the past, and could set Michigan up for future years of success on the hardwood and on the recruiting trail.
“I think it’s (an) amazing opportunity to host,” Barnes Arico said Feb. 20, 2023, one season after hosting March Madness. “I think it was life-changing last year. We got to experience that and it was so incredible, and our fans (were) so incredible, and I think it was so great for our community and our players. So it’s always a priority.”
The Elite Eight team from 2021-22, which hosted and won the first two rounds in Ann Arbor, was a significant draw for the current roster’s stars. Sophomore guards Olivia Olson and Syla Swords, who both earned consensus All-Big Ten first-team honors, cited former star forward Naz Hillmon and her team’s success as foundational reasons why they could envision creating even more firsts for the Wolverines as part of the program.
Big Ten Tournament Recap
Entering the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan’s 15-3 conference record marked a program record for conference wins. Its three conference losses — at Washington on Jan. 1, 64-52, vs No. 2 UCLA on Feb. 8, 69-66, and Feb. 22 at then-No. 13 Iowa, 62-44 — placed the Wolverines tied for second in the Big Ten and the No. 3 seed, going 4-1 in its five games prior to the tournament.
Michigan’s opening round draw featured No. 11 seed Oregon, which upset No. 6 seed Maryland. The Ducks took the Wolverines to the brink in Eugene on Dec. 31, surging from a 16-point halftime deficit and taking two overtimes before Michigan secured a 92-87 win. The rematch in Indianapolis was a stark contrast to that back-and-forth game, as the Wolverines never trailed while dominating the glass — 44-31 including 19 offensive rebounds — and 20 second-chance points.
Swords scored 17 points, while Olson added 16 and junior forward Ashley Sofilkanich scored 14. Michigan also forced 17 turnovers, including 11 steals, led by Big Ten All-Defensive team senior guard Brooke Quarles Daniels with four.
The Wolverines were poised for a revenge game against the Hawkeyes with the program’s first Big Ten Tournament Championship appearance on the line. Michigan seized its first lead, 36-35, in a defensive battle to enter the fourth quarter. But Iowa outscored the Wolverines, 24-6, in the final frame behind stifling defensive pressure and strong post play, winning the game by a final score of 59-42.
The Hawkeyes have largely posed a problem for Michigan in recent years, winning seven consecutive games dating back to a Big Ten regular-season title-deciding contest in Feb. 2022. The Wolverines are 2-8 in their last 10 matchups with Iowa, the last win coming Feb. 6, 2022, in the Elite Eight year. Scoring a combined 86 points in the last two games, the combined total barely above the team’s average of 83.6 points per game, scoring struggles were a consistent problem in the defensive battle. Michigan totaled just 10 points in the first and fourth quarters combined in the semifinal, while losing the rebounding battle 41-32.
The combined attack of Hawkeyes forwards Ava Heiden and Hannah Stuelke, first- and second-team All-Big Ten players, respectively, posed a formidable challenge for the Wolverines, as the tandem combined for 29 points and Stuelke went for a 13-point, 10-rebound double-double. With Sofilkanich fouling out and sophomore forward Kendall Dudley picking up four, paint defense was a challenge.
Yet taking those lessons, rooted in playing a complete 40 minutes of basketball in accordance with the game plan, Michigan is prepared for March. The Wolverines have learned from their shortcomings, spinning those stumbles into successes later in the season. Losses to top-five teams turned into ranked rivalry victories, coming back in situations where they fell behind and stayed there.
“After the last Iowa game we played, we talked in the locker room and said we could either crumble these last couple games where we play ranked opponents or we could come out prepared for March,” Olson said March 7. “Today didn’t go our way, but we talked in the locker room after, and we have so much basketball left. We’re just looking forward to the opportunity to still be playing.”
Michigan bounced back after the first Iowa loss, winning three straight against the Buckeyes, Terrapins and Ducks before falling again to the same foe.
“Iowa’s been our only loss in a really long time, and the rest of our losses have been 3-point losses with the exception of Iowa (and Washington),” Barnes Arico said March 7. “Hopefully we don’t have to play them in the NCAA Tournament. I’m excited to see what other matchups we’ll have. I’m excited for somebody else that hasn’t seen Michigan to have an opportunity to play against Michigan, because I think we have an unbelievable team. I think our schedules, whether that’s our conference or nonconference schedule, has prepared us for March. And I’m excited for whatever that is.”
The Wolverines are a difficult matchup across the board. They play with pace, press, and have dynamic three-level scorers throughout the lineup. Michigan’s defensive intensity flusters opponents, led by Quarles Daniels and her smothering support system. With versatile guards who can match up 1-4, post up and shoot the three, the Wolverines pose a puzzling conundrum for opponents: who do they put their best defender on?
Iowa aside, the Wolverines have been playing excellent basketball as of late. And with an almost-certain opportunity to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament in Ann Arbor, they’re poised to make more history in March.
