Over the last 10 years, more than 2,500 players have received a phone call from a general manager or coach telling them welcome to the NFL. Of those 2,500+ players, barely over 50% are still in the league, 9% have become Pro Bowlers, and 4% have become All-Pros. The odds of finding a great player in the NFL Draft are very small, so what can teams do to maximize their probability of having a draft like the New Orleans Saints did in 2017? One thing we can do is look back at the recent history of the draft and see
what positions have produced the most quality players and where you should draft them. For this study I put all 2,500+ draft picks made since 2016 in one spreadsheet in order to see how much value each position has produced in each round, and where the drop offs in talent usually occur. For this analysis all stats were taken into account, but the standardized statistic used to compare players of different positions is one called weighted approximate value per year (wAV/Yr). Weighted approximate value is used somewhat like a PFF grade or WAR in baseball to get a player’s impact down to one number. For more on how it is calculated you can read this page on Pro Football Reference.
The stat is by no means perfect, but it is a simple way to compare positions to each other and provide a standard metric to judge each player. The scale of this metric can be judged something like this: 14-9 wAV/Yr is the top-level talent at their positions like Josh Allen, Bijan Robinson, or Myles Garrett. 9-5 wAV/Yr are good players that are fringe Pro Bowlers such as Kyren Williams, DK Metcalf, or Josh Hines-Allen. 5-3 wAV/Yr are players that had a decent impact such as Paulson Adebo, Tyler Allgeier, or Isaiah Likely. 3-1.5 wAV/Yr are players that had some impact like Royce Freeman, Jordan Howden, or Foster Moreau, and below 1.5 wAV/Yr are players who had little to no impact like Kawaan Baker or Isaiah Foskey. With this in mind, we can take a look back at the last 10 NFL Drafts and determine where each position should be drafted in order to maximize the value a team like the Saints can get out of a draft.
Quarterbacks
Finding a starting caliber quarterback outside of the first round has been nearly impossible over the last 10 years. Only four of the 85 quarterbacks take outside of round 1 since 2016 have an approximate value per year over 6.0 (Jalen Hurts, Tyler Shough, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy), compared to 25 of the 35 taken in round 1 that have this same value. Looking at the actual stats of the position, the same 25 quarterbacks have averaged at least 2,000 yards or 10 passing touchdowns per year, while only five of the 85 QBs taken outside of the first round have reached the same statistical output. The average value per year of a 1st round quarterback is 7.869 which then falls to 4.381 in round 2, and plummets to 1.343 in round 3. QBs have by far the highest value among the positions in round 1, but then fall all the way to the lowest value in just two rounds. All other position have a higher average value in the 4th round than quarterbacks do in the 3rd round. The Saints luckily won’t have to worry about this in 2026, thanks to the aforementioned Tyler Shough but this illustrates why teams in the NFL are so desperate to find their franchise QB in the first round, as finding even an average starting level QB anywhere else is nearly impossible.
Running Backs
Everyone says you shouldn’t draft running backs in the first round, but is this actually the case? Running backs actually have the second highest average value among the positions in the 1st round, but the reason this is a common understanding is that running backs have the highest value in the 2nd round, and the second highest value in the 3rd round. It is easier to find a quality running back outside of the first round than any other position except interior offensive line. First round running backs rarely miss however, as 11 of the 14 drafted in the last 10 years have an average value per year over 5.0 and average at least 600 yards or 5 rushing TDs per year. However, when looking at 2nd round running backs, 13 of the 22 achieve the same 5.0 average value per year, and 15 of the 22 achieve the same statistical output, a drop off of just 11%. When you get to the third round that percentage does drop all the way to 29%, as only eight of 28 third rounders average 600 yards or 5 TDs, but over 50% of the running backs taken in the 3rd round have an average value per year over 3.5, as finding high quality RB2s in the third round is the most likely outcome.
The Saints have been linked to Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love throughout this draft process, as they have not drafted a running back in the first round since Mark Ingram and both Alvin Kamara and Travis Etienne Jr. are over the age of 27. If they take Love in the first round, there is an incredibly high likelihood that he will be a star based on the past 10 years of history. The last four running backs taken in the top 12 have been Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Ashton Jeanty, all of whom could be argued are top 5 running backs in the league save for Jeanty who is just coming off his rookie year. Passing on Love and taking a running back in the second round however is a very safe bet, especially when you consider how difficult it is to find quality players at other positions compared to running backs outside or round 1, but if they want a superstar with their first overall pick, Jeremiyah Love might be the safest option.
Wide Receivers
Wide receiver is a tough position to predict, and drafting one in the first round to be your top option is a bigger risk than it may seem. The position has the 6th highest average value per year among first round players, and only 60% of first round WRs in the last decade have averaged at least 600 yards or 5 TDs per year. This number falls to 36% among 2nd rounders and 24% among 3rd rounders. Receiver is the most frequent position drafted in the last 10 years, as 322 total have been selected in the last decade. Among those, only 64 have averaged 600 yards or 5 TDs per year. The difference in quality between 4th and 5th round receivers is almost negligible, as the average value per year of 4th round WRs is 1.711 and 5th round WRs is 1.873, with 18% in each round having an average annual value higher than 3.5.
Drafting wide receivers in the first round is much more tricky that running backs, especially in the top 10. For every Ja’Marr Chase and Tetairoa McMillan there is a John Ross or Corey Davis. Most WRs taken around where the Saints are drafting have been above average but not superstars such as Drake London and Jaylen Waddle. This is not to say you cannot find great receivers this early obviously, but for some reason it seems that most of the quality receivers are taken later in the first round compared to earlier. Players like CeeDee Lamb, Emeka Egbuka, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Justin Jefferson were all taken outside of the top 15, so if the Saints do wind up trading down in this draft they would likely still be able to find a quality receiver.
Tight Ends
Finding quality tight ends is perhaps the biggest crapshoot in the whole NFL draft. Among the top 10 TEs in terms of average yards per year drafted since 2016, four were drafted in the 1st round, two in the 2nd, two in the 3rd, and two in the 5th. First round tight ends have made a bit of a comeback in the last few years however, as each of the four previously mentioned 1st rounders were drafted in the last five drafts. Gone are the days of OJ Howard and Hayden Hurst and in are the days of Brock Bowers and Tyler Warren. More tight ends get drafted in each round as the draft goes along, so the percent chance at finding such a player gets lower, but the quality of the top talent does not drop off much at all between rounds 2 and 4. Despite George Kittle and Oronde Gadsden II being found in round 5, they were the only two of the 24 drafted in this round over the last 10 years to average 500 yards and 5 TDs per year. So far in the last 10 years no TE drafted in the 6th or 7th round has achieved this statistical output, and none have had an average value per year over 3.5, the only position where no such player has been found in the last two rounds. The Saints will probably not draft a TE in the first round, but if they want a younger option to potentially take over for Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant going forward they would have a nearly equal chance of drafting a good one between rounds 2 and 4.
Offensive Tackle
Offensive tackle is another one of the marquee positions on draft day. Everyone wants to find their franchise left tackle in the first round, and recently they have been very successful. Since 2016 40 of the 46 tackles taken in round 1 have had an average value over 4.0 per year, and half have a value over 6.0 per year. This drops off somewhat in round 2 with 64% of tackles having a value over 4.0 per year. The drop offs in quality occur after round 3 and round 5, with it being possible but unlikely to find good tackles in rounds 4-5 but nearly impossible in round 6-7. The Saints thankfully will not have to worry about this position for a while, as their last two first round picks were taken on tackles that so far look like they will be a part of the 50% of first rounders who have had high quality careers.
Offensive Guard
Guard is often an overlooked position, but the potential to get top level talent on the interior offenisve line later in the draft is perhaps as high as any other position. Of the top 10 guards in terms of highest approximate value per year, only two were drafted in the first round. 17% of the guards drafted in the 3rd round have been named to the Pro Bowl, tied with tight end for the highest percentage among the positions. The success rate actually goes up in the second round compared to the first, as 82% of first round guards have an average value per year over 3.5, and 87% of guards taken in the second round have had that same average value. It is the only position where the average value per year of the players drafted increases from round 1 to round 2, as first rounders have had an average value of 4.959 and second rounders 5.267. Guards have the third highest value among 2nd rounders trailing running backs and centers and have a higher average value in the second round than defensive tackles, tight ends, defensive ends, cornerbacks, and safeties do in the first round. This is partially due to the position being undervalued to the point where one is often not drafted in the first round, as four times in the last 10 years the first guard selected was a second rounder.
The Saints are in need of a guard, but this year drafting one with the eighth overall pick would be an incredible reach. Only one guard was drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 years, and Quenton Nelson absolutely deserved to be a top 10 pick, but none this year have been as highly touted as he was coming out of Notre Dame. If the Saints want to draft a guard they should be able to get the second or third one off the board with their second-round pick. If they draft one of the top three guards their chances of finding a great player improve greatly, as when you look at the position regardless of round, the 3rd guard off the board has had an average approximate value of 4.203, and the 4th off the board has an average value of 3.428. If they have the chance to grab the second or third guard off the board with their second-round pick it would be a safe bet at finding a quality player.
Center
Center is one of the highest producing positions in the draft. It is a position that also often goes overlooked, but most times one is drafted in the first two rounds they will wind up being a quality player. Of the 21 centers drafted in rounds 1 and 2 in the last decade, 14 have wound up with an approximate value higher than 5.0 per year, and eight have been named to a Pro Bowl. The quality of centers falls off after the fourth round, as the average value of centers taken in the 5th round is below the average value of all players regardless of position in that round. No center taken after round 4 has been named to a Pro Bowl, and only four of the 36 have an approximate value over 3.5 per year. The Saints don’t have much need for a center as Erik McCoy is one of the best in the league, and Cesar Ruiz can easily move over to the position if McCoy gets injured, but if they want a good backup so Ruiz doesn’t have to make that transition if McCoy were to get injured, they should take one in rounds 3 or 4.
Defensive End
Finding a quality defensive end anywhere outside of the first round has proven incredibly difficult in the last 10 years. Of the 197 DEs drafted in rounds 2-7 since 2016, only eight average six sacks or more per year, and only seven have been named to the Pro Bowl. There is a major drop off after the first round when it comes to defensive ends, as the average value of a first round DE is 4.634 and the average value for a second round DE is 2.401. The average value plateaus between rounds 2-4, as defensive ends from these three rounds have generally produced the same value and statistical output. If you want to find your game wrecking pass rusher, you have to do so in the first round, as it has proven next to impossible to do so anywhere else. That being said, even doing so in the first round is a challenge. Only 17 of the 40 defensive ends drafted in the first round in the last 10 years have averaged 6+ sacks per year, and only 11 have been named Pro Bowlers. One of the players most often mocked to the Saints in the first round this year has been Rueben Bain, Jr. If the Saints determine that pass rusher is one of their biggest needs, they should probably take Bain with the 8th overall pick and wait to fill their other holes, as they are much more likely to do so later in the draft at positions other than pass rusher.
Defensive Tackle
Defensive tackle is another often overlooked position that can make or break a defense. Finding a good DT outside of round 1 is easier than finding a good DE but still has proven to be difficult. In round 1, 52% of defensive tackles have an approximate value greater than 5.0 per year and 30% have been named to the Pro Bowl. These numbers drop to 23% with an approximate value greater than 5.0 per year, and just 1 Pro Bowler out of 26 DTs taken in round 2 since 2016. The percentage of DTs with a greater than 5.0 value per year only drops to 13% in round 3, so the difference between a second round DT and a third round DT recently has been much smaller compared to the drop off between round 1 and round 2. The Saints could also use help at defensive tackle, but taking one with the 8th pick would be a reach. They should be able to find one that is serviceable in the second or third round, but if they want one that is a difference maker they will probably have to trade back to make the pick worth it.
Linebacker
Linebackers are the kings of the late rounds. They have the highest combined approximate value per year among 5th-7th round picks and are second only to wide receivers in terms of Pro Bowlers produced from these rounds. They are the only position to have a greater than league average percentage of players that have above a 3.5 approximate value per year in every round on day 3. This is not to say do not draft one in the first round, as all of the top tier talent at the position is still usually gone after day 1. The average approximate value per year of a first round LB is 6.150, and 44% of them have been named to Pro Bowls, both the highest among all defensive positions by a significant margin. There is a significant drop off from the first to second round however, as the average approximate value of a 2nd round LB falls all the way to 3.896, the second largest drop off between first and second rounds trailing only quarterbacks. First round linebackers average 42 tackles, 0.4 interceptions, and 3.6 sacks per year, and second rounders average 32.1 tackles, 0.5 interceptions, and 2.1 sacks per year. The thing with linebackers is, the value plateaus from the 2nd round all the way back to the 5th round, as they are the only position other than running backs to have an average approximate value per year over 2.0 in every round between 2 and 5, and the only position to have an average approximate value per year over 1.150 across all rounds of the draft. The position has produced by far the most players on day 3 with an approximate value per year over 3.5, as 34 linebackers taken between rounds 4 and 7 have reached this output.
The Saints do need a linebacker to replace future team Hall of Famer Demario Davis, but may have already found one in free agency with former 7th round pick Kaden Elliss. It is unlikely they will draft a linebacker in the first round unless someone like Sonny Styles falls to them, but after that they will have the same chance to find a solid starter with their next six picks. I would not be surprised to see the Saints take a linebacker on day two or early on day three, and would also not be surprised if that player turns out to play significant snaps for the Saints going forward.
Cornerback
Finding a good corner is one of the biggest challenges in the NFL draft, perhaps even more so than finding a good quarterback. The position has the lowest percentage of players drafted with an approximate value over 3.5 per year, and also has an average value per year lower than league average in all but one round. The production drops between rounds one and two and between rounds two and three but then levels off until round six. There have been 223 cornerbacks drafted between rounds 3 and 7 since 2016, only five have made Pro Bowls and only 21 have an approximate value over 3.5 per year. The position is the second most numerous position drafted in the last 10 years only trailing wide receivers, these two being the only positions with more than 300 players drafted since 2016.
Despite this, the Saints still have a decent chance to find a good one with their first-round pick. LSU’s Mansoor Delane is the consensus top cornerback prospect in this draft, and will likely be available when the Saints are on the clock with the 8th pick. Despite the position’s low average approximate value overall in the first round, the first corner taken has usually been a hit in recent years. The last 10 first cornerbacks taken in the draft have been Jahdae Barron, Quinyon Mitchell, Devon Witherspoon, Derek Stingley, Jr., Jaycee Horn, Jeff Okudah, Deandre Baker, Denzel Ward, Marson Lattimore, and Jalen Ramsey. Arguably only two (Okudah and Baker) have been disappointments, and Okudah is the only disappointment among corners taken in the top 8. The last three CBs taken this high have been Witherspoon, Stingley Jr., and Sauce Gardner, all who have made multiple Pro Bowls and are among the best corners in the NFL. If the Saints determine Delane is a good enough prospect to warrant the #8 pick, the recent trends say he is more likely than not to be a quality starter at corner.
Safety
Safeties have been by far the least drafted defensive position in the first round over the last decade. Only 14 have been taken, and of those 14 only five have an approximate value greater than 5.0 per year. The position has the lowest average approximate value per year among first rounders at just a 3.986. That being said, that average approximate value increases to 7th highest in the league among 2nd rounders, then 4th highest among third rounders, and finally to the highest average value among all positions in the fourth round. The difference in the average value of a 1st round safety and a 4th round safety is less than the difference between a 1st round corner and a 2nd round corner. Fourth round safeties only average 11 fewer tackles per year and 0.2 fewer interceptions per year than first round safeties, as the position is tied with centers and guards for the highest percentage of fourth rounders to have an approximate value over 3.5 per year. Among the top 10 safeties in terms of approximate value per year, two were first rounders, and four each were second and third rounders. With all that being said however, the cream of the crop still is usually the first safety off the board. The last 10 safeties who were the first taken at the position have an average value per year of 5.269, and the second safety off the board has an average value per year of 3.561. The plateau occurs right after the first safety off the board, as the next seven safeties drafted each year all have had an average value per year greater than 3.2 and average at least one interception and 33 tackles per year.
The Saints have been predicted to draft Ohio State safety Caleb Downs in many recent mock drafts. Downs is the highest rated safety in the draft and one of the highest rated prospects at the position in the last few years. The only safety to be picked inside the top 10 in the last 10 years was Jamal Adams, and the last two to be picked inside the top 15 were Minkah Fitzpatrick and Kyle Hamilton. All three of these players were well worth their draft picks, as they all have made at least three Pro Bowls while Fitzpatrick and Hamilton have the two highest approximate values per year among all safeties drafted since 2016. Safeties that may be top 10 talents often fall outside of the top 10 due to the perceived value of the position, but if the Saints have as high a grade on Downs as comparable to the last few safeties drafted this high, he would be a steal at #8.
What we can draw from the trends and results of the last decade of drafts is that you need to find your pass rushers and corners in the first round, and can afford to wait on almost everything else. The best talent of course will always be found in the first round at every position, but if you have an equal need at defensive end and linebacker you should probably take the pass rusher in the first round, even if he is graded lower than the linebacker. The tenth linebacker on your board in all likelihood has a higher chance of becoming a good player as the fifth defensive end or the fourth cornerback. Because of this, I believe the Saints should target either Rueben Bain Jr. or Mansoor Delane with the #8 overall pick rather than players like Jordyn Tyson, Caleb Downs, or Jeremiyah Love. These three players may all go on to have great careers, but the Saints are far more likely to fill their needs at linebacker, safety and running back in the later rounds of the draft than they are at pass rusher and corner. The lack of high quality players at these two positions that have been found outside of the first round means that the #8 pick will be the Saints only good chance to find a great player at either of these positions, both of which are arguably their biggest needs. If they don’t fill one of these needs Thursday night, the chances they do during the rest of the draft are quite small, whereas the chances of them filing their needs at wide receiver, guard, linebacker or running back on day 2 are all slightly greater than a 50/50 shot. A million different conclusions can be drawn from the 2,500+ picks that have been made over the last decade, but the NFL Draft at the end of the day is about maximizing the value of each pick, and in order to do that you have to be precise about where you take your shots and where you take a pass. Let’s hope the Saints can keep their recent trend of quality drafts going this weekend.
