The LSU Tigers face a really difficult task as they visit Nashville to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores. A once easy W has become a really tricky game for everyone in the SEC.
From third down efficacy,
player props, team defense/offense numbers, team totals and more, we will have a little bit of everything as we roll on this season. What will this week bring?
Last season we ended with a negative record for the first time, but still ended up positive because of some big swings we took odds wise (2022: 19-17, 2023: 19-17, 2024: 16-20) and we hope to do better this time around. We hope to earn a winning week this time. (7-11 in 2025)
Today, we take a look at predicting three specific areas for the team. Remember these are bold(ish) predictions. (All stats via CFBSTATS)
1 LSU @ Vanderbilt First Half UNDER 24.5 (-120, FanDuel)
Yes, another under, but this one has merit! LSU and Vandy have decent offenses, but the defenses have been pretty solid for both sides. This one could be 14-7, 20-3, 10-3 and we hit it, I like that more than betting an under with an underwhelming attack in LSU and a turnover prone Pavia.
As such, take the under here. We can see a game unfolding with some points and even a 14-10 gives us the win. Vanderbilt is ninth in the SEC in total defense (313.3) and 10th in scoring defense (19.3), so add in what we know about LSU this will hit.
2 Diego Pavia 200+ Yards & Garrett Nussmeier 200+ Yards (+110, FanDuel)
Is this a bit of an easy pick? Yes, yes it is, but I need a prop W and this one gives me plus money. Check and check. Both will have to throw and Pavia had success against Alabama and we know what Nussmeier will be so give me this one.
With it the team will need a good performance from Nuss to win and with the lack of a real run game, this could prove an easy hit for both.
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3 Caden Durham ATTD (-115, FanDuel)
Is it time for a vintage Durham game? Perhaps, but what we will see is a full load for the LSU tailback. Despite the injury he had his best output last time out and had 70 yards rushing, I expect a similar if not better performance vs a subpar SEC defense. He should score one and make this a fun game for the Tigers as they have lacked any real juice in the season thus far.
That will have to come from marked improvement from the offensive line and some play action relief from Nuss, but I do think they can have success here. Durham to score is the play.
Final score prediction: LSU 24-21 Vanderbilt
