Things have gone very well for the Boston Celtics thus far this season. Far better than just about anyone could have imagined. That alone is a victory and sets up the team for future success in the years
to come. But from a current season perspective, it is merely a feel good story if the team can’t compete for a Championship. The one thing that could vault this team from “competitive and dangerous playoff team” to “legit contender this year” is Jayson Tatum. He’s the ultimate wildcard in this NBA season and it is anyone’s guess just how this is going to turn out.
So I thought I’d lay out some realistic scenarios for potential paths forward once Tatum returns. Walk with me as we explore the possibilities.
Some up front caveats. There’s of course the ever present risk of re-injury that hangs over everything this year. However, I’m going to choose to trust the doctors to put him in the best position to recover, which simply puts him at roughly the same level of risk as any player in the league.
Also, I fundamentally dismiss the notion that Jaylen Brown’s emergence could make his fit with Jayson Tatum a problem. That hot take has been proven false because they both thrived in the same ecosystem on their way to an NBA title. Brown adding layers to his game only helps add weapons and optionality to the team. Both have proven that they are willing to sacrifice stats for winning and both will understand what it takes to get back to that mountaintop. There are many ways things could go sideways, but I don’t loose a second of sleep worrying about the “fit” questions.
The Disappointing End
Let’s start with the bad and work our way back up from there. I’m sure that everyone involved is going to make sure that Tatum is ready to return before letting him take the floor, but that doesn’t guarantee that he’ll be 100% back to being the top 5 player in the league that we’ve come to know and love and depend upon. What if he’s only 75% or worse?
You have to imagine that he’ll start out with a minutes restriction and it will surely take some time to knock off the rust. But what if those struggles persist? If he’s not explosive or doesn’t trust his legs, can he be the same threat on the court? The Celtics have gotten a lot out of this year’s team, in part because everyone is flying all around the court. In Tatum’s best years he’s a bit more deliberate with his motion. If he’s slowed further, does that gum things up for the Celtics?
It is worth pointing out that what has made Tatum so special isn’t necessarily just the scoring, but the rebounding, defending, playmaking, and generally doing all the little things that lead to winning basketball. If he’s not full speed, then his impact in those areas could be limited. Enough to be a net negative? Probably not, but you never know.
The Celtics can finish the season with “replacement level” Tatum and be just fine. It is when you play this forward into the playoffs and where you really see the concern. Matchups and gameplans are the difference between advancing and heading home for the summer. If Tatum can’t be a net positive on the court, this team might just fizzle out in the first couple of rounds. Not the end of the world, but not what anyone should be hoping for.
Winning Titles is Hard
This next, more optimistic scenario seems like the most likely one, even if it isn’t the one we want the most.
We all know that Jayson Tatum is a gym rat that is maniacal in his conditioning, game prep, and approach to being ready to play every game. He has all the best trainers, medical experts, and peers to get advice and guidance from. If anyone in the world is going to do absolutely everything it takes to come back the right way, it would be Jayson Tatum. So everything that is within his power, will be done to the utmost.
Of course not everything is in his power. So let’s say that he comes back and ramps his way up to say 90% of what he was before (What do these numbers even mean? I don’t know, just trying to provide context). That’s still a very, very productive and impactful player. Maybe even one that produces at an All Star level. What separates the All Stars from the Superstars is usually just incredible consistency and next level impact.
The Celtics are currently one of the top teams in the league, and even if you allow for some regression, adding an All Star level player to that mix would be amazing. I would assume that’s better than any player any contender will be adding to their roster (if you don’t count Denver getting Jokic back).
That’s great then, right? Sure! But does it mean we can schedule the Duck Boats? Not just yet. Here’s where I have to remind you that winning NBA titles is very, very hard and requires all the right things to fall into place – like they did in 2024. This is also a painful reminder that even with a full roster (pre-salary dumps), last year’s squad was on track to lose to the Knicks even before Jayson Tatum’s injury. That was a very good team, just not a great team. Even if they get past the Knicks and Pacers, who’s to say that they would have survived the buzz-saw that was last year’s OKC Thunder?
Which brings me to this year. The East isn’t exactly a powerhouse, but the Pistons are big and tough. The Knicks are back with a better offense. The Sixers, Magic, and even the Bucks (assuming Giannis stays) shouldn’t be overlooked in any 7 game series. Even then, if you get through all of that, you have to face whomever comes out of the bloodbath of the West (OKC? Denver? San Antonio?).
The point is, the Celtics (even with 90% Jayson Tatum) could very well be a high level contender, but still not win their last playoff game. Maybe the big man depth finally comes back to haunt them in the playoffs. The playoffs are not kind to young players, so maybe the Celtics lack of veteran depth hurts them. Or perhaps Simons gets targeted on defense so much that they have to go away from him (and then don’t have his scoring punch). As great as the story has been this year, it would have to be perfect to end in a fairytale flourish.
The Fairytale Finale
Which brings me to the best option. The option that my heart of heart will always believe in.
For all the reasons I stated in the section above, I could see Jayson Tatum coming back and being 100% Jayson Tatum again (perhaps after a few weeks of ramp-up time). Jaylen Brown has clearly taken a step forward in his game, but the burden that he’s carrying has been immense. It wouldn’t be too hard to imagine Brown being the one that is the most excited to see Jayson back to help carry the load.
A fully actualized Tatum is the tide that lifts all ships in the harbor. Jaylen can still be a terror from midrange, which keeps defenses from over-switching onto Tatum. We’ve already seen Tatum pass out of double teams to facilitate 4-on-3’s. Imagine what this version of Brown could do with those numbers. Just because they don’t always set picks for each other doesn’t mean Tatum and Brown don’t make each other better (and they have the hardware to prove it).
Now imagine the trickle-down impact. With all the attention on Tatum and Brown, there are opportunities for White, Pritchard, and Simons to fill up the stat sheets on offense. With Jayson flying around on defense and hitting the boards, the defense goes up another level. He’s a matchup nightmare on both ends of the court. Suddenly the “smallball” lineup that had success earlier in the year swaps out Josh Minott for Jayson Tatum. Suddenly Walsh, Hugo, and Minott are a luxury, not a necessity (and everything they give you is a bonus).
If we’re wishing upon a star, then either Luka Garza goes up another level, or Brad Stevens finds a way to upgrade the center depth at the deadline without even needing to use Anfernee Simons in a trade.
The bottom line is that Jaylen has gone up a level. He and Tatum know how to win titles. The supporting cast has championship experience, shooting, defense, and now some younger legs. Who’s to say that isn’t a Championship formula?
