Like every week, I begin my preparation for the Detroit Lions’ upcoming game by watching their next opponent’s previous matchup.
Here are five things I learned about the Minnesota Vikings after watching their 16-10 win over the Indianapolis Colts.
Did Colts find a weakness in Vikings’ run defense?
For the season, the Vikings’ run defense has been almost as stellar as their outstanding pass defense. They’re only allowing a -0.212 rush EPA (second), they’re first in rush success rate allowed (31.2%), and ninth in run defense DVOA.
But the Colts were able
to run quite successfully against them last week.
- 33 carries, 154 yards (4.7 YPC), 1 TD
- -0.050 rush EPA (12th best of Week 7)
- 41.2% success rate (13th)
The Colts’ running game kept them in decent downs and distances all game, which allowed them to convert on third downs 53% of the time against the Vikings—the highest percentage Minnesota has given up all year by far. For the season, the Vikings are allowing a third down conversion rate of just 28.2% (third-best). If you get into a third-and-long, you can forget it. Minnesota has allowed just a 14.3% conversion rate on third-and-7+ (seven conversions out of 49 attempts, second-best).
Now, it’s worth pointing out the Colts have one of the best rushing attacks in football, and they still only produced an above-average day against the Vikings. Still, despite Detroit’s inconsistencies in the running game, it’s easy to imagine Detroit trying to attack on the ground to try and keep the Vikings’ aggressive pass defense at bay.
Kyler Murray is struggling with accuracy
Obviously, the Vikings’ offense has not yet found its footing with new quarterback Kyler Murray under center. They’re averaging just 20.8 points per game (23rd) despite constantly being given good field position (33.9 yard line average, third best), and they average just 4.7 yards per play (27th).
But I was surprised to see how much of it appears to be Murray’s fault. He really struggled with accuracy against the Colts. Not only did he complete just 14-of-24 passes (58.3%), but his -12.2% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) was second-worst of the week—oddly only ahead of Patrick Mahomes.
For the season, Murray is a more modest +0.7% CPOE (16th), but he’s near the bottom of the league in yards per pass attempt (6.5, 22nd) and EPA/dropback (-0.09, 23rd). And that’s despite rarely throwing the ball deep. His 7.0 average depth of target is just 7.0 yards (23rd out of 33).
Run game is okay, but short-yardage is a problem
The Vikings opened up the game against the Colts after a good kick return and found themselves in a third-and-1 in Colts territory. They squandered the opportunity with back-to-back Aaron Jones runs that went for a collective -1 yards. On their next drive, they managed to pick up a fourth-and-inches with a Murray sneak, but barely.
It turns out their short-yardage running game has been a problem all year. They sport a power success rate (success on third and fourth-and-short situations) of just 60% this year, which ranks 21st in the NFL. That is not a situation the Lions run defense has excelled at this year, allowing a success rate of 83%, tied for the highest in the NFL. So this is a weakness vs. weakness matchup.
That said, their down-to-down rushing efficiency is at least okay. They rank 21st in yards per carry (4.0), but 27th in rush EPA and 27th in rushing success rate.
With Aaron Jones’ health status unclear this week, but Jordan Mason back in the lineup, it’s hard to know what to expect on the ground for Minnesota this week.
They’re nasty on special teams
It actually wasn’t their best game on special teams, with a 59-yard field goal blocked and a kick return of 43 yards allowed vs. the Colts. But the rest of their special teams units were great. Their punter, Brett Thorson, dropped both of his kicks inside the 20-yard line. Myles Price had a 46-yard kick return of his own. And Will Reichard has made every single kick this year outside of that one blocked.
For the year, the Vikings rank first in punt return average (19.2), first in kick return average (30.7), eighth in punt coverage average (8.7), and 14th in kick coverage average (25.2). They’re first in special teams DVOA this year.
But the Lions have been pretty dang good, too. They’re fifth in special teams DVOA, third in punt return average (14.4), 22nd in kick return average (25.0), fifth in punt coverage average (8.1), and fifth in kick coverage average (23.8)—and Jake Bates has yet to miss a kick.
Fans of special teams units will have their Super Bowl on Sunday.
Dear lord, their pass defense is scary
The Vikings went viral this week for their outrageous 85.2 blitz rate against the Colts, the highest ever recorded in the NextGenStats era (back to 2016). That aggression led to four sacks, one interception, and at least three other passes that could’ve been picked off. The Colts managed just 108 passing yards (64 net), and a paltry 4.9 yards per attempt. They didn’t have a single passing play of over 13 yards.
For the season, the Vikings aren’t just first in most categories, they’re first by a mile:
- 61.7 passer rating allowed (next best is 72.6)
- 10.6 sack percentage (next best is 9.4)
- 53.9 completion percentage allowed (next best 56.4)
- 68.4 blitz percentage (next best 42.3%)
- -0.30 EPA/pass allowed (next best -0.22)
- 35.5 dropback success rate allowed (next best 39.2%)
The good news is that the Lions are one of the best teams against the blitz this year. When facing a blitz, the Lions rank:
- Eighth in lowest sack percentage (5.4%)
- Fifth in lowest pressure rate allowed (35.1%)
- Seventh in yards per attempt (7.2)
- First in EPA/pass (+0.25)
But this is an entirely different beast in Minnesota, and we’ll see if Jared Goff, Drew Petzing, and the Lions offensive line has answers for Brian Flores.
