The Rams have long been Super Bowl contenders. Heck, it’s felt like they’ve had that label for the entire duration of the Sean McVay era that began in 2017. And they’ve of course hoisted the Lombardi Trophy once in that time frame.
Let’s dive into those Los Angeles’ tendencies before the Bills trip to SoFi Stadium for Monday Night Football in Week 5.
Rams offense
Matthew Stafford vs. pressure
Entering this game, Stafford owns the NFL’s third-worst rating at while under pressure (among qualifiers) at 29.1 His completion percentage under pressure is sixth-lowest
at 37.0%.
Now, Drake Maye did enter Week 4’s game against the Bills with a 50.7 rating under pressure in the first three weeks then managed a 102.6 rating while pressured in Orchard Park.
However, the disparity between’s Stafford clean-pocket play vs. his under-pressure play is as sizable. His accuracy percentage — completion rate discounting spikes, throwaways, and instances when a quarterback is hit as he throws — is 34 percentage points worse under pressure than it is when he’s kept clean, the largest disparity among all qualifying quarterbacks entering Week 5.
13 personnel
I’ve written “13 personnel” more in the first month of this Bills season than I probably have in the past five years covering the NFL. Add to the counter here. Because the Rams are the NFL’s top 13 personnel team. Through four games, they’ve utilized the three tight end look the highest rate in league (30.8%).
But that comes with a caveat. After an injury to second-year tight end Terrance Ferguson — now on IR — the Rams have shifted away from it. In Week 3, when Ferguson got hurt, Los Angeles used 13 personnel on 31 plays. Last week against the Eagles, it was deployed on one play.
Kyren Williams as a receiver
Williams is fresh off a 13-target, 10-reception performance in the Rams win over the Eagles in Philadelphia in Week 4. That effort got him to 21 catches on the season, he’s more than halfway to his regular-season career high in catches at 36.
For as good as Williams is knifing between the tackles in Sean McVay’s zone-blocking based system, he’s become an important security blanket and screen option for Stafford this season.
Play Action
Josh Allen enters this game with the NFL’s second-highest play-action rate among qualifying quarterbacks at 39.4%. The Rams barely use it. Among those 39 qualifying passers, Stafford’ play-action rate of 22.5% ranks 31st.
Rams defense
Safeties and Trent McDuffie
McDuffie was the Rams second enormous offseason acquisition, and he’s played like an All-Pro through the first month of the season.
The former first-round pick the Bills know quite well has yet to miss a tackle and has allowed just five receptions for 74 yards on a whopping 18 targets in his coverage area. McDuffie also has an interception and has been credited with seven pass breakups to date.
The Rams safety duo of Quentin Lake and Kamren Curl are as good as any in the NFL. Lake too has an interception and five pass breakups while Curl has just one missed tackle on 215 snaps through four games. They’re both sizable safeties at over 6’0” and 200 pounds.
Emergence of new No. 1 pass rusher
Gone is Jared Verse. Myles Garrett remains on IR. Byron Young has emerged for the Rams as the team’s top outside pass rusher. The 2023 third-round pick from Tennessee is 6’2” and 250 pounds but wins with surprising speed-to-power conversion and a nonstop motor.
He brings a hefty 20.1% pressure rate into this game.
Cover 1
The Rams are running Cover 1, a man concept, at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL through Week 4, at 27.0%, per Football Insights. Of course that’s not a ridiculously high percentage, but relative to the rest of the league’s coverage tendency, it is.
The coverage they’ve used at the second-highest rate is Cover 4 — zone — at 23.4%
