Following a cowardly but necessary point against Parma at the weekend, Fiorentina’s forced to stop thinking about its possibly terminal Serie A campaign and focus again on the Conference League round of 16. The Polish opposition is Raków Częstochowa, 4th in the domestic league and a point behind Jagiellonia Białystok. As an amusing aside, if Lech Poznań eliminates Shakhtar Donetsk, the Viola will get a 3rd straight Polish opponent in the competition, they’re at least an honorary top-half Ekstraklasa
side.
The match will be played on Thursday, 12 March 2026, at 20:00 GMT/3:00 PM EST, at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in beautiful Firenze. The forecast calls for a cloudy evening with a decent chance of rain, possibly enough in the preceding days to affect the pitch. At least it won’t be to chilly for the fans, although there isn’t a massive turnout expected.
Three things to watch for
1. How far Vanoli rotates
Even though Fiorentina’s clamored out of the relegation places on points (not tiebreakers) for the first time since match day 7, Paolo Vanoli knows that his team is sailing perilously close to the sirens after giving itself an earwax treatment. The Conference League has gone from entertaining interlude to unwelcome distraction, especially with all the absences the mister has to contend with. He showed against Jagiellonia that he’s not interested in weighing down his starters with midweek minutes and that’s probably how he’ll approach this one too.
With Moise Kean and Manor Solomon both injured, though, he might have to do just that. Roberto Piccoli and Jacopo Fazzini are locked in for that absent pair but questions remain elsewhere. Niccolò Fortini should get a rare opportunity to fill in for Dodô despite looking very beatable at rightback, but will he? Will Cher Ndour have to step in as the deepest midfielder again so Nicolò Fagioli can get a breather and if so, what does that do to the other two midfield spots, especially with Ndour seeming to leapfrog Marco Brescianini in the hierarchy at mezzala? Will Fabiano Parisi start on the wing if he’s needed at the weekend as well?
2. Breaching Raków’s defense
Raków has the 3rd-best defense Ekstraklasa and the 2nd-best in Conference League league phase. Manager Łukasz Tomczyk has only been in the job since Christmas but the team’s kept 4 clean sheets in his 7 matches in charge, compiling a W3 D2 L2 record in that span. He’ll set up in a 3-4-2-1 that prioritizes compactness and depth. Fiorentina, of course, has looked very bad going forward, particularly against a deep block.
I won’t pretend to have watched a ton of Raków but a quick look at their highlights highlighted the narrowness of the defense. Time and again, one of the wingbacks got caught high up and opponents had space to drive forward and cross quickly as the disorganized back line struggled to track the center forward. The Medaliki didn’t look great defending those situations and seemed to particularly struggle with clearing the ball, knocking a lot of balls weakly to the edge of the box for an onrushing midfielder to attack.
With Piccoli’s aerial ability, I think this is Fiorentina’s avenue to success, although it’ll also rely on the midfielders getting forward. It’s a perfect chance for Giovanni Fabbian or Brescianini to shine on their late runs into the penalty area. If Fiorentina’s wide attackers can consistently find that space down the wings (and not drift into the congested middle) and provide quick, good deliveries, they’ll greatly increase their team’s chances of success even against a pretty good defense.
3. Defending set pieces
I’ve written this spiel time and again but the fact remains that Fiorentina’s about as wretched at defending dead balls as any team I’ve ever seen. Per my game notes, over half of opponents’ set pieces have resulted in chances over the past couple months. I don’t have a baseline comparison but I’m pretty sure that’s bad. Even worse, I still can’t figure out what’s going wrong and neither can the coaching staff.
Some of it is the marking schemes: in literally his first game, Vanoli’s talked about the lack of time the team had spent on defending set pieces and it seems like he hasn’t changed anything from Stefano Pioli’s approach. Some of it is down to the defenders themselves, none of whom are great in the air and all of whom seem to struggle sticking to their marks. Some of it, I’m sure, is mental: if you think you’ll concede in a situation, the odds increase that you will. Some of it is David de Gea, who’s nailed to his line at all times and never challenges for high balls, putting everyone else under that much more pressure.
Oliver Christensen’s been added to the Conference League roster so he’ll probably start. While the Insane Dane is a downgrade on de Gea, he might stand a better chance here because Raków approaches corner kicks like Arsenal. Tomczyk gets his guys to put 3 or 4 big bodies around the opposing goalkeeper at all times and then has the taker loft the ball into that area. It’s a strategy that irritates a lot of fans but, given the current laws and their application, it’s a very smart way to play. Christensen’s prone to flappiness but he’s also more willing to mix it up in the penalty area. How he responds to this challenge will probably determine how many goals the Viola concede.
Possible lineups
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Ted’s Memorial Blind Guess Department
The bookies must be napping because they’ve got Fiorentina as big favorites here and given the team’s recent performances, that’s very stupid. I’m not a betting man because that stuff’s dumb but if I were, I’d put pretty good money on Raków at least getting a draw. The Poles have been better both domestically and in Europe by any measure and don’t have the mental fragility that’s come to define this Viola side. Throw in the squad rotation (especially with a trip to Inter Milan looming on Sunday) and a Franchi that’s even emptier than usual and I don’t see a lot of upside for the hosts.
As ever, though, I’m duty-bound to predict a 2-1 win for the Fiorentina, even if it strains my creativity. I’ll say the first one comes down the right from a driving Parisi run that causes mayhem and eventually allows Fabbian to tuck one away before Jonatan Braut Brunes pulls one back from a set piece, setting the stage for Christensen to boom a punt all the way forward in the dying minutes that hits a passing pigeon and deflects into Oliwier Zych’s goal. On the other hand, a Viola win sets the stage for an even more dramatic collapse in the away leg, so maybe it’s not that unlikely.
Forza Viola!
