Game 1 of the 2025 World Series on Friday night is the start of the 25th playoff series/round the Dodgers have played in 10 seasons under manager Dave Roberts.
They are 17-7 in Games 1 thus far under Roberts, including six straight such wins covering this postseason and last. They are 3-5 on the road in Games 1 under Roberts, with two of the wins coming in the last two rounds.
The Dodgers’ Game 1 result has matched the series outcome 18 times in 24 chances over the last 10 years under Roberts. In best-of-seven
series over that time, the Dodgers’ Game 1 fate matched that of the series seven out of 10 times.
In World Series history, the winner of Game 1 has won the championship 77 out of 120 times (64.2 percent), including 18 of the last 22 Fall Classics.
Cashing in chances
The Dodgers didn’t hit much in the last two rounds, averaging 3.5 runs per game during the NLDS and NLCS combined. One reason is that they haven’t hit much at all with runners in scoring position, just .211/.343/.333 in those situations through their first 10 games of the postseason.
During the NLCS, the Dodgers had only six hits in 35 at-bats with a double and seven walks with runners in scoring position, hitting only .171/.310/.200. One of those outs was the Max Muncy fly ball off the center field wall with the bases loaded in Game 1 that somehow turned into two outs and no runs, so adjust your RISP stats accordingly if you are so inclined.
In the regular season, the Dodgers hit .278/.362/.475 with runners in scoring position, tops in MLB in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and wRC+ (126), and third in bating average. The Blue Jays were right there with them, hitting .292/.361/.449 with a 122 wRC+ with RISP, leading in bating average and in the top three in OBP, slugging, and wRC+.
Toronto has kept it up in the postseason, hitting .286/.362/.527 with runners in scoring position, with seven of their 20 home runs hit in those situations, fueling a best-in-MLB October offense that is averaging 6.45 runs per game. The Blue Jays have averaged 12 plate appearances with RISP per game this postseason, well above the major league average of 9.6 PA per game during the regular season. The Dodgers have averaged 11 PA per game with runners in scoring position this postseason, and also averaged 11 during the NLCS, so they are creating chances. Now they need to start converting those into more runs.
The long ball
A byproduct of the Dodgers not cashing in with runners in scoring position is a lack of power in those situations. Each of the last seven Dodgers home runs this postseason are solo shots. Their last home run with anyone on base was way back in Game 1 of the NLDS in Philadelphia, three weeks and eight games ago, when Teoscar Hernández slammed a three-run home run in the seventh inning to turn that game around.
Ten of the Dodgers’ 13 home runs this postseason have come with the bases empty.
The Blue Jays have allowed an MLB-high 18 home runs through 11 games this postseason, though eight of their last nine given up have come with the bases empty. The lone homer in that stretch with anyone on base was a big one, a tiebreaking grand slam by Eugenio Suárez in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the ALCS that gave the Mariners a 3-2 series lead.
Blue Jays rookie Trey Yesavage is making his seventh major league start in Game 1 of the World Series, and to date has only allowed two home runs among his first 123 batters faced. Both came in the ALCS, a three-run shot by Julio Rodríguez in Game 2 and a solo shot by Josh Naylor in Game 6.
Dodgers Game 1 starter Blake Snell hasn’t allowed a home run yet during this postseason, and hasn’t allowed a home run since August 29, with seven starts and 176 batters between then and now.
