The recent international break came at an unfortunate time for Everton, who had picked up some serious momentum heading into it, having won three of four Premier League matches, taking them all the way up to the giddy heights of eighth in the table, once again offering the tantalizing prospect of (gulp) European football. Actually, considering Jarrad Brantwaite’s ongoing fitness struggles this season, and the (over?)reliance on a number of key players, in Iliman Ndiaye, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, James
Garner and Idrissa Gueye, who, to varying degrees get kicked a lot, run themselves into the ground, or are 36 years of age (guess which applies to who!), then maybe a three week rest wasn’t such a bad thing.
OK, some have been on international duty during this interregnum of club football, but games against the likes of Uruguay, Czechia (quit changing your name, country!) and Sweden don’t really compare to the physical demands of the English top flight. Heck, even the increasingly fragile Seamus Coleman – who’s posted a mere eleven minutes of league action for the Blues this term – is able to manage 95 minutes against Czechia in the Republic of Ireland’s losing World Cup qualifier, followed up by an hour in what was a friendly waltz-about with North Macedonia.
Anyway, the presumably refreshed Toffees return to action this weekend with all to play for during what promises to be a fascinating conclusion to the season. The Blues could achieve an improbable Champions League qualification should all go well, or drop to as low as 13th (feasibly 14th) should the wheels come off in spectacular fashion. Still, hopes are high and it’s much preferable to be still in the fight for continental football come mid-April, rather than looking towards the bottom of the table, hoping the likes of West Ham United, Spurs or Forest slip up. For Saturday’s traditional 3 PM local time kickoff, the team travels to West London to meet fellow Euro-hopefuls Brentford.
Form
It’s fair to say that the Bees have overachieved somewhat this term, under rookie boss Keith Andrews. When Brentford lost the highly-regarded Thomas Frank, star man Bryan Mbeumo (scorer of 20 league goals, along with eight assists), main striker Yoanne Wissa (who fired 19), along with ever-present captain Christian Nørgaard (34 league starts), then it could not be thought overly churlish back at the start of the campaign to mark the London minnows as bound for the Championship; I don’t mind admitting that I had them pencilled in for the drop. After all, much of the club’s success in four creditable top flight campaigns (in which they finished 13th, ninth, 16th and tenth) seemed down to Frank’s managerial abilities, along with a data-driven recruitment model.
With Frank’s steadily-constructed reputation in the game having unravelled in pretty short order at Spurs, Andrews – promoted from his humble role as Brentford’s set-piece coach – has demonstrated (so far!) that maybe this managing gig isn’t actually as hard as it’s often made out to be. Or, the Londoners have unearthed a gem in the 45-year-old Irishman; or somewhere in-between, take your pick. Perhaps more startling is how the Bees have somehow improved whilst shedding significant, footballing talent, not signing anyone obviously top tier (Dango Ouattara is tricky, but no Mbeumo, Michael Koyode’s loan was made permanent in the summer, Jordan Henderson is 35 and Caoimhín Kelleher was Liverpool’s backup ‘keeper) and banking a cool €50m in player trading into the bargain. It appears the ingenious seven-stage recruitment model utilized by the Bees can’t be shrugged-off as just fancy, new age number-crunching.
Andrews has guided the West Londoners to seventh currently — ahead of the Blues only on goal difference. He’s tinkered a bit with formations throughout the campaign, generally favouring a 4-2-3-1, but switching to 5-3-2 last time out, against Leeds, perhaps in an attempt to match the opponents’ system. They were very much a boom and bust side in the early months of the season, winning six and losing eight of their opening 15 league games, but have since become more stable, and accordingly, tough to beat. Of their last 16, they’ve lost only three times, to Chelsea, Forest and Brighton, set against seven wins, form which has propelled them up the table. They are unbeaten in four, having drawn three straight.
Team Assessment
Today’s hosts are a pretty rough and ready outfit, which fans would have taken note of when the Bees handily dispatched Everton 4-2 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, a little over three months ago. They are one of the more direct sides in the division, with 13.9% of their passes played long and they rank bottom four for pass completion percentage (78.8). Contrary to general perception, they have not been overly effective from set-pieces, having scored only eight goals from dead ball situations, though they’ve fired six penalties. However, the Bees have scored a league-leading nine times on the counter (tied with Manchester City), which Everton have proven particularly vulnerable to. A worry!
Kelleher has proven a bargain at less than €15m, the 26-year-old showing himself to be a competent Premier League goalkeeper. Long-throw specialist Kayode has enjoyed a breakout campaign on the right side of defence and with Rico Henry ruled out, it’s likely that Keane Lewis-Potter will deputize on the left. The imposing pair of Nathan Collins and Sepp van den Berg form an aerially dominant, if not mobile central partnership, though it’s possible that the even loftier, potentially slower Kristoffer Ajer could be preferred. Everton probably should park the idea of lofting multiple crosses in for Beto to attack, just a thought.
Defensive mainstay Vitaly Janelt is out with a broken foot, so the deep-lying midfielder will probably be the cagey veteran Henderson, with the crafty, underrated and experienced Mathias Jensen either sitting alongside, or playing slightly further forward. Yegor Yarmolyuk offers another option, but deployed either centrally or as an attacking midfielder, the talented Mikkel Damsgaard will drift around, looking to find space, and to link up with fellow Danish international Jensen. Damsgaard, so influential last season, has been in and out of the lineup under Andrews, puzzlingly, but had started the last three prior to picking up a minor knock prior to the Leeds game.
Leading the line is surprise package Igor Thiago. The Brazilian is a complete, all-round centre forward, who missed almost the entirety of his debut season with knee injuries, but has seamlessly replaced the departed Wissa, netting 19 goals this term. Thiago bullied the Everton defence in January, en route to bagging a hattrick at HDS. His form this season has earned him a deserved late call-up for the Brazil squad, ahead of the World Cup. There’s ample pace on either side, with the rapid Ouattara lining up on the right flank, and Kevin Schade on the left. The former is on a run of good form, making five goal contributions in his last eight appearances.
Prediction
I get the impression that picking a result over the next seven games is going to be a tough task, with few teams checking out as the campaign draws to a conclusion, as almost everyone is currently involved in either the race for Europe, or a relegation battle. Brentford have proven to be a very solid, well-organized and physical outfit, possessing a serious threat at the top end of the pitch. They certainly out-thought, as well as out-muscled Everton last time the teams met, but David Moyes will have learned from that bruising experience, and will no doubt be better prepared this time around.
The Blues will likely start a side containing five who were either unavailable, or not selected for that January meeting – in Ndiaye, Dewsbury-Hall, Gueye, Branthwaite and Beto – and should therefore prove a far more formidable test for the hosts. Throw in that Everton have played better on the road all season, having lost away only to Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal, following that poor opening day defeat to Leeds, at Elland Road. Brentford will probably hope to draw the Toffees on, in order to hit them in transition, but I don’t see Moyes taking the bait. This may be a tactically cagey affair, with Everton perhaps enjoying more of the ball than could be expected.
The Bees are serious opposition, but I can see the travelling Toffees handling Thiago better, with Branthwaite in the back line, and the team’s midfield trio of Garner, whose confidence must be sky-high, the effervescent KDH and Gueye, who has found his old form in recent games, getting the better of Brentford, who will miss the absent Janelt — the provider of two assists for Thiago at HDS. Ndiaye was electric against Chelsea, and could do serious damage running at a static home defence. I don’t see Everton losing this, and with a bit of luck, the visitors will take all three points back up to Liverpool today.
Scoreline: Brentford 0-1 Everton
Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com, fbref.com and whoscored.com
