If the Pittsburgh Penguins are going to be active this offseason in making changes to their roster, it is almost certainly going to be through trades.
Not only because the free agent market is awful, but also because Kyle Dubas has been extremely active with trades in his first few offseasons running the team. He has made at least four deals in each of the past three offseasons, and that number went as high as seven a year ago (including draft-day and draft-pick trades).
With mountains of salary cap
space, a team in transition, and money needing to be spent to just reach the league’s salary floor, he is going to be busy.
So what are his best trade chips throughout the organization?
I’m not looking at the players most likely to move, I’m looking at the players that would bring the most back in a hypothetical deal. There is a difference.
In all honesty, there’s probably only two players that are probably locked into the team going into the offseason, and they are Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Malkin literally just re-signed, and Crosby is … well … Crosby. They are not even worth discussing in this. Their value? Meaningless. Because they aren’t getting traded under any circumstances. They just aren’t. At least not this offseason.
As for everybody else? Let’s look at them.
I just want to re-emphasize again because I feel like it’s something that is going to need to be said but this is not a ranking of who I think is most likely to be traded or who will be traded.
This is a ranking of which players in the organization would simply have the most value in the eyes of the rest of the league.
The Penguins most valuable trade pieces
1. Ben Kindel. There’s probably not a more valuable player in the organization in a trade discussion when you take into account age, production, overall play, potential and contract value. If the Penguins were going to swing a deal for an in-their-prime star (think Jason Robertson, Robert Thomas, or somebody similar that hasn’t been named in trade rumors) he would probably have to be included in it as the focal piece. Most likely. If it’s not that type of trade, he’s not going anywhere. Nor should he. He is a long-term building block, and unless you’re getting a better long-term building block back there is no point in considering it. But he DOES have value. A lot of it.
2. Erik Karlsson. This might have been unthinkable a year ago given the drop in his play and his contract. But coming off a season that saw him get serious Norris Trophy votes, and with only one year remaining on his contract, and with a complete void of top-pairing defensemen in free agency (depending on your value of modern-day John Carlson or the risk you want to take with Darren Raddysh) there could be a serious market for Karlsson. Especially if the Penguins eat some of his remaining salary for this season. With only one year remaining on his contract I do think there is at least a chance he gets moved. I also think there’s a chance he gets a couple of years added on to that deal.
3. First-round pick. I actually do think there’s a good chance this pick gets moved before it gets made in one form or another. Dubas has never been afraid to move around the draft board, and dipping into his allotment of second-round picks to move up could be on the table. Doing what he did with No. 12 a year ago and moving back for additional picks could also be on the table. I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of it getting moved for a young NHL player. The Penguins have some luxury to do that because, 1) It’s not a lottery pick so their odds of finding a superstar are lower, and 2) They already have pick No. 39, as well as pick No. 54, in the second-round. In terms of value there’s not a HUGE gap between Pick No. 22 and pick No. 39. You could move this pick for young NHL help and still be in a position to add a similar prospect in the draft. My guess is the Penguins do not actually pick at No. 22 overall for one reason or another. They might pick at 15. They might pick at 27 or 28. They might get somebody that is more immediate help.
4. Sergei Murashov. If we were talking most likely to move, he fits into the same tier as Kindel in “only going somewhere for an in-their-prime star or potential star.” Murashov is interesting because he is the one prospect in the system that might actually have superstar potential in the NHL. That should have a high value. But he’s a goalie. And an unproven goalie. Goalies, and especially unproven goalies, can have some weird trade value because nobody can project them. Yaroslav Askarov was arguably the best goalie prospect in hockey a couple of years ago and went for a decent prospect and a very late first-round pick.
5. Egor Chinakhov. When Chinakhov was flopping in Columbus he still brought back a couple of mid-round draft picks (including a second-rounder) and an NHL veteran due to his potential. Even though he is a restricted free agent this summer I would guess that his resurgence with Penguins in the second half, combined with some of the untapped potential that still exists here, could bring back even more. But just as the case with Kindel, I wouldn’t expect him to go anywhere unless it’s part of a blockbuster package to bring back a better long-term piece.
6. Rickard Rakell. I get the desire to trade guys like Rakell and Rust as part of a rebuild, and one or two of them could be dealt at some point sooner-than-later. But I also think you should prepare yourself for them to not bring back as much as you might be expecting. Or hoping. Non-star wingers that are in their 30s just don’t have a huge value. Maybe you get a late first-round pick. Maybe you get a good young NHLer. But I don’t think it’s going to be a franchise-altering move or return. Maybe the lack of a free agent can stir up some sort of a bidding war, but if you get a first and a good young player you should be ecstatic with that. I would.
7. Bryan Rust. You can just copy and paste the Rakell section here. It all remains the same.
8. The other top prospects (Harrison Brunicke, Rutger McGroarty, Bill Zonnon, Will Horcoff). These are good prospects. Maybe not great prospects. But certainly very good prospects. It’s real prospect depth for an organization and farm system that, as recently as one or two years ago, had almost no real prospect depth. Individually I am not sure what the trade value would be for any of them, outside of similar very good prospects in another organization. But if you paired one of these guys with a first-round pick you could probably get back a really good NHLer. (I don’t necessarily expect that to happen. Especially when it comes to a player like Brunicke who represents almost all of their serious prospect depth on defense).
9. Pick No. 39. Could the Penguins package that pick with No. 22 to make a significant move up? Sure. Could they use it to try and get a young NHL player and repeat the Egor Chinakhov trade? Sure. There are some options here with this pick. Just as I said with the first-round pick, I think there is at least a decent chance this pick moves in some form.
10. Tommy Novak. Good, but not great NHL player. Good talent, but inconsistent with it and sometimes frustrating. Versatile player that can play a lot of roles, but doesn’t really excel in any of them. Affordable salary cap number and only one year remaining on his contract. Some value. Not great value.
11. Parker Wotherspoon/Justin Brazeau/Elmer Soderbrlom. Their value is in their salary cap numbers. They are cheap and they are solid depth. I wouldn’t expect a lot if they were to be moved or put on the market.
11. Samuel Girard. I still believe he can be a good player, and the fact he only has one year left on his contract helps reduce some of the headache that could come from his salary cap number. I wouldn’t expect much.
13. Arturs Silovs. The Penguins got him for a fourth-round pick and Chase Stillman. He had his moments this past season, but probably not enough of them to up the trade value that much.
14. Kris Letang. He is the one player in the big-three that I could see playing for another team … if it were possible. But you are either going to have to retain salary or add in a sweetener, while also getting him to a team that he would approve.
15. Ryan Graves. You will have to retain salary and add in a sweetener. As Tristan Jarry showed us in December, no contract is truly unmovable or untradable. But this might be as close as it gets for the Penguins at this point.
