The Blazer’s Edge Mailbag is never short of questions about the Portland Trail Blazers. Many of them get answered in long form throughout the year, but we often get shorter bites that need one-off answers too brief to make a post out of. Last week we posted a slate of those questions and gave corresponding answers. Since there were so many, we’re going with Part 2 today! Enjoy!
Dave,
How big of a deal is it to not have a pick in the deepest draft in a generation? Do you feel like this is a fumble or
just bad timing?
Cade
It’s better to have a draft pick than not, but a couple things are important to remember.
- Depth of draft doesn’t make as big of an impact as spike at the top. Let’s say you have a briefcase of $20 gift cards to Spencer’s Gifts. That stack runs deep! If everybody who reaches into the case gets one, many people will get a nice discount on black-light posters, risqué t-shirts, and who-knows-what in that back room. But if one of those cards is worth $10,000, that changes someone’s whole year. It wouldn’t matter if the other cards are $20 or $1. That $10,000 makes more impact than any of the others, probably more than all of them combined. Victor Wembanyama was the $10,000 card. There may be one this year too, but…
- Unless the Blazers got a tippy-top pick, they’re losing out on a significant, but lower-impact player, not a franchise-changer. It’s a bummer, but not a tragedy. Most of those mid-to-low picks are going to fizzle. That would be true even if the Blazers were picking.
I could see Portland trying to trade into the draft at any point they figure a key, targeted impact player falls. But just having “a pick” doesn’t make as much of a difference as it seems. If they can get their guy, they get him. If they can’t, we don’t know if he would have ended up with them anyway. The best players in the draft won’t. Ultimately, that’s who you want.
Dave,
Lifelong Knicks fan here, transplanted to Portland. I love the Blazers too but man it was good to see my Knicks win! I don’t see anyone in the east beating them next year either. Could we be looking at the next dynasty with that starting lineup all playing unselfishly for each other?
Gerald
New York fans, I know you think it’s cute and you love to show off, but PLEASE, for the love of God, stop sending me your unsolicited Knick picks.
*shudders*
My friend, your team was special this year. There’s no denying that. Nobody can take it away. But a few things are conspiring against your scenario. The Eastern Conference is going to recover. The Indiana Pacers should return to decent form. The Celtics won’t be as injured. Orlando is still coming up and Detroit still exists. The road won’t be as straight for New York next year.
Also, the Knicks have Mitchell Robinson, Landry Shamet, and Jeremy Sochan as unrestricted free agents this year with the possibility of Jose Alvarado as well. Next year it’s Miles McBride and possibly Karl-Anthony Towns. They’ve also got to pay Jalen Brunson fair market value at some point. At this juncture, that projects to about 62 trillion dollars. Unless the franchise wants to go into the tenth apron, they’re not going to retain these players long enough to create a true dynasty. They’ll do what all great teams do: try and keep a core four (or so) together and switch the role players under them. Given the precariousness of their title run this year, I’m not sure that it’ll be enough to guarantee future success.
But hey, it was still fun for the NBA to have this moment, watching biggest city in the nation to celebrate it with joy and innocence. That’ll last right up until we hear entitled Knicks fans start complaining about how the refs are screwing them out of a chance at a repeat. That ought to happen right around their second loss of the season, so buckle up.
Dave,
Give your take on [Toumani Camara]. Is he a franchise cornerstone or just a good player?
Connor
Why not both? Camara is a really good defender who is growing into his offensive game. His 37% rate from the three-point arc is serviceable, not spectacular. I’d say he’s already slightly above a good player, given his defensive ability, but he’s not a great one. If the shooting percentage goes up, we’ll talk.
Don’t sleep on how much difference a very good player doing the right things can make for the Blazers right now, though.
First of all, that three-point percentage is third on the team among regular players. After Camara, it starts dropping like a rock. Second, Camara takes the toughest defensive assignment nearly every night. That has a residual, beneficial effect on his teammates. We already saw Deni Avdija begin to flag as the season wore along last year. Imagine if he manned the prime defensive position every night as well. How much more often would other defenders have to scramble to help? How many more fouls would Donovan Clingan have?
Right now, Camara is a cornerstone of the roster just like he is. No matter what happens, he’ll remain a player you’re happy to have in the rotation. That’s plenty good enough for a second-round pick entering his fourth season.
Dave,
Do you see a future for Vit Krejci with this team? Why couldn’t he shoot after the trade?
Jon
As for the why, your guess is as good as mine. Different system, didn’t have the ball in his hands quite so much, got the yips? I’m assuming that a summer to think about it will restore some of his formerly-demonstrated skill. I see no future for him at all if he continues to shoot 30%, as he did during 19 appearances with Portland. He was up at 42% in 46 games for Atlanta. If he can even get back to 39%, he should be ok.
I’m not entirely sure about his future either way. His current contract is super cheap: $3 million per year. But that’s a team option. The Blazers could cut him, keep him on the downlow, or trade him. Even if they kept him, he’d become an unrestricted agent after next season.
It all boils down to how much they like him. If they want to keep him on, there’s no cost. If they trade or release him, there’s no loss. It’s a low-stakes issue for everyone involved save Krejci himself, who needs to play for his next contract.
Dave,
What position do we need to fill the most? We have a deep team. Should we build around the edges and let it bake?
Carrie
For me, this is shooting guard. I’m not trying to slight Shaedon Sharpe. Given where he started his career, 21 points per game is not bad. But he’s shooting 45% from the floor and 34% from the arc. Those numbers are passable, not eye-popping. He hasn’t developed a great midrange game, he doesn’t get to the cup enough, and his distance shooting doesn’t compensate for it.
Even more importantly, Sharpe played 29 minutes per game over just 50 appearances this year. Kris Murray and Caleb Love came after him. Matisse Thybulle was good when he played but he was injured most of the season and he’s an unrestricted free agent as we speak.
Portland has a lot of names under the shooting guard category but not a lot of real, functional depth. Given the corresponding inability to reach a stratospheric ceiling (or even a good three-point shooting percentage) among the same group, I’d say this position needs shoring up, if not an overhaul.
Thanks for the questions! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!
