Aaron Nola got off to bad starts over the previous two seasons. While it didn’t look bad from a results standpoint in 2024, he had a FIP of 4.49 over the first month of the season and carried a strikeout rate that would’ve been his lowest since 2015 over a full season.
His 2025 season was a mess all around. His ERA sat at 5.40 in the six starts he made to begin the season, but he showed better signs than the previous season with a higher strikeout rate and a slightly lower FIP. It was slightly better from
a process standpoint but significantly worse results.
In both cases, the Phillies front office didn’t pay Nola over $24 million a season to put up those numbers, so it was important for him to look different coming into camp. He needed to get off to a much better start in 2026.
The biggest reason Nola started slow in back-to-back seasons is his velocity. Over the first month of the last two regular seasons, he has sat at 91.2 mph on his four-seam fastball. That is always going to be worse for him than the typical 92-93 he ramps up to over the following five months.
This was, at least to some extent, intentional. He is expected to make 30-33 starts and pitch 190-200 innings a season while being as effective as possible in October. Spring training and April are sacrifices to make for what is more important down the line.
But with only pitching 94.1 innings and playing for Team Italy in the WBC, he has looked different to begin spring training. Over his first two starts this spring, Nola has pitched five innings with six strikeouts and one earned run. His breaking ball has looked sharp, the changeup looks good, and the command is dialed in.
But the most encouraging sign is what his velocity looks like so far in camp. He sat 91.7 mph while touching 92.9 against the Marlins. In his second start against Canada, Nola sat 92.1 while touching 93.9.
This looks like the makings of not just a bounce back season from a disastrous 2025 but his best since 2022, the last time Nola looked like a top of the rotation starter.
Other Notes
It’s only been two outings for pitcher Yoniel Curet but you would certainly like to see more. In his first outing against the Nationals, he struck out two in a scoreless inning but it took 28 pitches. His outing against the Tigers was a disaster, walking two, allowing two more hits, and five earned runs.
If the league still ends up suspending Johan Rojas after his appeal is over, the Phillies’ center field depth starts getting very thin. Only Justin Crawford and Brandon Marsh play a proven center field on their 40-man roster and the AAA options might be Pedro León. Gabriel Rincones Jr and Bryan De La Cruz are strictly corner outfielders, and there isn’t much depth behind them.
While Johan Rojas has been frustrating as a player with not cutting down the swing, not learning to bunt, and some mental baserunning issues, there could still be room for him to have some future here.
