We’re back at it again today with round two of making AI research historical draft tendencies by Sean Payton and George Paton to try to identify the types of players they might target at running back in the 2026 NFL Draft.
I’ll discuss this topic again at the end of the roundup, but first let’s get through the days happenings in Broncos Country.
Broncos daily recap
Oddsmakers not buying Broncos run, set Super Bowl line at +1,900 Despite being one win away from the Super Bowl last season and adding Jaylen Waddle to an already
loaded roster, FanDuel has the Broncos sitting at +1,900 to win it all — behind both the Chargers (+1,500) and Chiefs (+1,600) in their own division. The article argues the disrespect doesn’t add up given that Denver’s defense returns intact, the offense got a legitimate upgrade with Waddle, and Davis Webb stepping into the playcalling role gives Bo Nix and the offense a fresh wrinkle heading into a season where this team will be motivated to prove 2025 wasn’t a fluke.
Under the radar
Good to know the Denver Broncos remain the primary focus.
From the FEED
But if you are a Colorado Rockies fan, this news was probably well-received.
Refining AI’s approach to tiering players based on Payton/Paton draft tendencies
There were two changes that need to be reworked in the AI’s approach. The first was the height/weight thing. Two players at the same position could be the same exact height and weight, yet have two completely different play styles. So the goal there was to compare traits and ability to exclude players that fit a role too similar to a player recently drafted – like RJ Harvey.
The other was around injury history. While Payton and Paton tend to avoid players with injury concerns, they will take a flyer on them if the draft position is significantly degraded. A good example of that is Jonathon Cooper who was drafted in the seventh round due to a heart condition when he would have likely gone in Day 2 without that issue.
The changes brought just two changes, but they were significant changes in my opinion. Both Jonah Coleman and Emmett Johnson were shifted a tier upwards.
IMPORTANT NOTE: This analysis is SPECIFIC to the Broncos and their current draft capital. Not an actual big board for ALL teams.
Running Back Tier 1 — Highest Correlation (A, Bullseye)
- Mike Washington Jr. (Arkansas, 3rd) — 6’1″/223 bruiser with class-best 4.33 speed, SEC production, Senior Bowl attendee, quiet-worker profile Paton loves; perfectly fills the bruiser gap and serves as Dobbins-insurance/Harvey complement the room desperately needs.
- Kaytron Allen (Penn State, 4th) — 4-year 5’11″/216 starter, 4,000+ career yds (school record), blitz-pickup chops, Senior Bowl, zero missed games; exactly the between-the-tackles workload back (+3 complementary gap) to keep Dobbins fresh without duplicating Harvey.
Running Back Tier 2 — Solid Candidates (B, Strong Fit)
- Kaelon Black (Indiana, 5th-6th) — 5’9″/211 muscled-up “Freaks List” alum with 4.45 speed and legit pass-pro tape; undersized in height but plays like a bruiser, fills gap as a low-cost power complement to Harvey.
- Jam Miller (Alabama, 6th-7th) — 5’10″/209 Bama-trained “best worker on team” with 4.42 speed and ST value; between-the-tackles build fills complementary gap, though 2025 injury-driven production drop keeps him out of Tier 1.
- Jonah Coleman (Washington, 4th-5th) — 5’8″/220 Academic All-American with pass-pro value Payton loves; v1.3 functional role reclassification: despite height similarity to Harvey, Coleman’s college usage at Washington was as a between-the-tackles power back (220 lbs, primary ball-carrier, physical downhill running, strong pass-pro) — a fundamentally different role than Harvey’s change-of-pace/KR specialist. The prior “height-based soft duplicate” is removed; +3 bruiser gap fit applies. Senior YPC slide and below-sweet-spot height (5’8″ = hard floor) keep him out of Tier 1. (Moved from Tier 3 → Tier 2)
- Le’Veon Moss (Texas A&M, 6th) — 5’11″/211 SEC downhill grinder with red-zone production and strong character; +3 bruiser gap fit; v1.3 medical: torn ACL is resolved/cleared (−5) — single structural injury, medically cleared, participating in football activities. Ankle issues are a separate lower-body concern (−3 moderate). Combined medical load still piles onto an already injury-fragile backfield but the v1.3 tier clarifies this is not a gating condition.
- Nicholas Singleton (Penn State, 5th) — 6’0″/219 with home-run speed and KR value; size fits the complementary gap, but tunnel-vision inside running, pass-pro issues, and Senior Bowl foot surgery (v1.3 medical: resolved/cleared, −5 — single surgery, cleared) push him down.
- Emmett Johnson (Nebraska, 3rd-4th) — 5’10″/205 All-American, Big Ten RB of the Year, 46 catches in 2025 with crisp routes; v1.3 functional role reclassification: Johnson’s college usage at Nebraska was as a featured three-down zone-cut back (primary ball-carrier, 200+ carries, conference player of the year) — fundamentally different from Harvey’s change-of-pace/KR specialist role. The prior −2 soft duplicate of Harvey/McLaughlin is removed. His All-American production floor and receiving chops make him credible Dobbins-insurance at Day-2/3 cost, though the 5’10″/205 frame limits the pure power-back ceiling the room ideally wants — more zone-cut stretch than between-the-tackles bruiser. (Moved from Tier 3 → Tier 2)
- Roman Hemby (Indiana, 7th) — 6’0″/208 four-year Maryland/Indiana starter, 129 career catches, low fumble rate; tweener build is roster-neutral and receiving volume plus STs give Payton a useful chess piece without duplicating Harvey.
- Adam Randall (Clemson, 7th-FA) — 6’3″/232 former WR with 4.50 speed, KR experience, Senior Bowl captain; unique big-body frame fills +3 bruiser gap, ex-receiver hands give him a Payton-style third-down-plus-size profile.
Running Back Tier 3 — Maybes (C, Role Fit)
- Jadarian Price (Notre Dame, 2nd-3rd) — 5’11″/203 4.49 change-of-pace/KR specialist with zero college starts; v1.3 functional role confirms the −2 duplicate — his college usage (change-of-pace complement, kick returner, zero starts) IS the same functional role as Harvey. Drops out of Tier 2 despite R2-R3 grade.
- Chip Trayanum (Toledo, 7th-FA) — 5’11″/224 multi-school vet with 4.50 speed and LB background; fills complementary bruiser gap and the pass-pro/STs toughness fits Payton’s depth-back mold.
- CJ Donaldson (Ohio State, FA) — 6’2″/236 all-gas downhill grinder, pass-pro upside, zero drops past two years; +3 bruiser gap fit, but 4.61 speed and 3.8 ypc senior year cap the upside.
- J’Mari Taylor (Virginia, 6th) — 5’10″/197 former walk-on, productive zone runner with Senior Bowl invite; v1.3 functional role assessment: Taylor’s college usage at Virginia was as a zone runner, closer to Harvey’s change-of-pace lane than to the bruiser gap — −2 soft duplicate holds on functional role grounds, though bowling-ball short-yardage finishing gives a partial gap credit.
- Barika Kpeenu (NDSU, FA) — 5’10″/213 FCS workhorse, 20 rushing TDs, Jerome Ford comp; fills complementary gap as low-cost bruiser depth, but 4.66 speed at FCS level makes him a fit-not-priority.
- Noah Whittington (Oregon, 6th-7th) — 5’8″/205 tough zone runner, strong in pass pro; v1.3 functional role confirms the −2 duplicate — college usage as undersized zone runner/pass-pro back IS Harvey’s lane. v1.3 medical: ACL is resolved/cleared (−5), turf toe is separate moderate concern (−3); combined lower-body load compounds injury-room concern.
- Star Thomas (Tennessee, FA) — 5’11″/200 multi-school transfer with 5.7 ypc in SEC backup role; −2 soft duplicate, but lateral creativity and no 2025 fumbles give depth-camp value.
Tier 4 — Unlikely (D/F, Off-Profile)
- Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame, 1st) — Heisman finalist/Doak Walker elite talent; hard-gated by Payton-Paton “never R1 RB” history — top talent but wrong round/position profile, not a roster-complement question.
- Seth McGowan (Kentucky, 6th-7th) — 6’0″/223 would hit the bruiser gap; hard-gated by 2021 robbery/assault arrest and Oklahoma dismissal — Paton character screen eliminates.
- Demond Claiborne (Wake Forest, 4th-5th) — 5’10″/188 burner compared to “diet Achane”; −2 soft duplicate of Harvey plus sub-190 frame, 2025 fumble issues, and soft pass-pro stack a hard “no.”
- Eli Heidenreich (Navy, 5th) — Navy “Snipe Z” hybrid with service-academy commitment; off-type and roster-neutral, but position-unclear fit plus Navy service obligation is a non-starter for a 2026-need draft.
- Max Bredeson (Michigan, 7th) — 6’2″/252 true FB/H-back with zero college carries; off-type for the RB room, fullback role Payton rarely employs, special-teams-only ceiling.
- Rahsul Faison (South Carolina, 7th-FA) — 5’11″/206 26-year-old multi-stop JUCO vet; −2 soft duplicate of Harvey plus age gate (26 rookie year) plus pass-pro holes eliminate him.
- Jaydn Ott (Oklahoma, 7th-FA) — 5’11″/198 former Cal star whose last two years cratered; −2 soft duplicate of Harvey plus explicit NFL scout questions on grit/toughness = Paton character red flag.
- Robert Henry Jr. (UTSA, FA) — 5’9″/199 one-cut vet with big-play flashes; −2 soft duplicate of Harvey, undersized with ball-security and high-mileage issues.
- Dean Connors (Houston, FA) — 5’11″/206 three-down receiving back, 147 career catches; −2 soft duplicate of Harvey/McLaughlin/Badie — clean athlete but the room already has three of him.
- Desmond Reid (Pittsburgh, FA) — 5’6″/176 Sproles-comp return specialist; −2 hard duplicate of Harvey/McLaughlin — tiniest possible version of what the room already has, injury-prone on top.
- Cash Jones (Georgia, FA) — 5’11″/185 Georgia walk-on, core-four ST profile; −2 soft duplicate of Harvey/Badie as passing-down/ST depth, lacks the between-tackles value the room actually needs.
I think this thing is ready to roll. I’m still trying to figure out how to assemble all this into a usable and readable format. I may drop each position group results in these roundups over the next week while I work towards some type of “big board” type list that I can then compare to the actual draft results in two weeks. Just a fun ‘what if’ type exercise for me. I’ll like whoever Denver drafts either way. haha!
Have a great weekend, Broncos Country!
