Volume 5 showcased resurgence, offering hope for the rest of the season. Volume 6 rips that hope out of your chest. Ineptitude, poor leadership, and crushing injury defined the past fortnight, leaving
the Bucks—and their fans—reevaluating everything.
@ Nuggets
The. Bucks. Are. In. Denver. And. Struggling. With. The. Altitude. They have to be—it’s the only possible reason they’re down double digits to a Nuggets team without Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Cam Johnson, and Christian Braun. And. Time. Is. Running. Out. Giannis senses it too, inhales like he’s about to go free diving, and gets to work. He follows up one pirouette-to-dunk with another. Then, after both sides fail to score for nearly two minutes—in which Giannis somehow doesn’t even get an attempt—he walks into a 19-foot pull-up. Cash; lead down to six.
Four minutes later, after a flurry of baskets that don’t change the deficit, Giannis makes another middy to cut it to four. And, not long after—following a pair of split free throws by Peyton Watson—Giannis gets a steal and looks up to vacant hardwood. Forget penciling this one in, you could carve it in stone; see the finish before it happens—a windmill that rocks the rim so hard it reverberates right back to Wisconsin. But Tim Hardaway Jr. comes out of nowhere to steal it right back and, with it, the last breath of oxygen in the Bucks’ lungs.
Win probability after Giannis’ midrange jumper: 17.9%
Win probability after Hardaway’s steal: 8.9%
vs. Wolves
Early enough in the game for fans to still care—before this was a 30-point blowout and the Bucks still had a chance—Giannis, the greatest player in franchise history and leader of this team, sits down and complains to the officials on the offensive end of the floor after a non-call and then can’t be bothered contesting a Julius Randle three-point attempt on the other end. Randle splashes three but that’s not what’s important here. What is, is the tone the Giannis just set, especially considering he had Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. wide-open in either corner with their hands in the air. It’s no wonder everything goes south from here and the Wolves have an 18-point lead by the end of the quarter, 33 by the final siren. As Big Ju says in Remember the Titans, “Attitude reflects leadership.”
Win probability before the game: 41.4%
Win probability after Randle’s three: 23.3%
@ Spurs
Giannis is a freak to begin, getting to the line at will, dunking, even splashing a three—scoring 14 of the Bucks’ first 17 points and sending Victor Wembanyama to the bench with zero points, two personal fouls, and one very sore knee. It feels like the start of a statement game. But the Spurs machine is starting to run like the one of yesteryear and they hold a close lead halfway into the second. Then it begins. The alien invasion. First, Wemby blocks a Rollins driving layup attempt, then he makes a three on the other end. A possession later, he grabs the carom off a Giannis miss and dribbles full-court into a pull-up three—and suddenly it feels like Independence Day, the White House blowing into smithereens. By the time he’s done in the third quarter—after splashing a turnaround, fadeaway three instead of taking the foot-shorter AJ Green down low—it’s a 25-point Spurs lead. And these Bucks don’t have Russell Casse to save them from the brink of extinction.
Win probability prior to Wemby’s block on Rollins: 25.4%
Win probability after Wemby’s pull-up three: 13.4%
@ Hawks
According to Henry Ford, “If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got.” With the Bucks on an embarrassing three-game skid, this wasn’t going to work. Thankfully, Doc Rivers gets the message and opts to utilise Pete Nance, ostensibly giving him Gary Trent Jr.’s minutes, (who ends with a DNP-CD). It’s a move that pays off—the Bucks are down one, 16-17, when Nance first enters the game, but up 12, 90-78, when he last checks out. More specifically, Nance is active from the get-go, reminding the Bucks that to win you’ve got to do the little things—run hard in transition, pass up a good look for a great one, give the second and third efforts—and, if you do these consistently, good things will happen. In the fourth quarter, good things indeed happen for Nance. Amidst a Hawks run that started in the third quarter and got them as close as six after being down by 20, Nance pounces on an errant pass and turns it into a transition layup to give the Bucks breathing room, back up 10. A minute and a half later, he calmly knocks down a catch-and-shoot three-pointer that makes it 14. It should be enough to knock out the Hawks, and although it isn’t, the Bucks hold on. Bigger picture, it should be enough to change Nance’s season—and possibly even his career. Now that’s momentum.
Win probability when Nance enters the game in the first quarter: 44.1%
Win probability after Nance’s three in the fourth: 97.2%
vs. Thunder
The Bucks win a (seemingly) rare tip and get the first possession of their sure-to-be fiery NBA Rivals Week matchup against the… Oklahoma City Thunder? Yeah, the matchup must have confused the Bucks too, as they come out stunned—unable to even get the ball inside the three-point line on the first possession—and starting centre Kyle Kuzma is forced to hoist a closely-guarded three-pointer that predictably clanks off front rim. The second possession is better—the Bucks actually get it inside 23 feet—but the result is the same, another Kuzma bricked three, and then Chet Holmgren shows him how it’s done on the other end. In the blink of an eye, it’s a 21-6 lead for the Thunder, then 26-8—and Ajay Mitchell has more points (12) than the Bucks. By the end of the quarter it’s 38-18 and, somewhere, Kenny Smith is screaming: “It’s over! It’s over, ladies and gentlemen!”
Win probability prior to the game: 22.3%
Win probability after Holmgren’s three: 18.1% (and by the end of the first it’s just 3.4%)
vs. Nuggets
There’s no altitude this time; the Bucks are at home; still no Jokic, Murray, Johnson, Braun. No Watson too, and Aaron Gordon only plays 16 minutes. Oh, and the Nuggets are cold from three, finishing just 12/41 on the night. Myles Turner is actually on one too—17 points, seven boards, and six blocks. Still, the Bucks go down 23. How could this game possibly get any worse? That’s right, overplay Giannis attempting an all-but-futile comeback only for him to get injured. Then somehow get close enough to actually win—101-100—only for Kuzma to take and miss the game-winner. Franchise burying momentum right there.
Win probability when the Bucks go down by 23: 0.2%
Win probability after Giannis exits with injury: 6.1% (but who cares?)
With Giannis out for the foreseeable future, the focus shifts from Playoffs (well, Play-In) to planning and playing for tomorrow. Who will step up and seize their moment?
