You know the drill. Northwestern is playing a close game, as Chris Collins-coached teams often do. The ball is brought up the court for a key possession. The problem is, it’s no longer Boo Buie with the ball.
It hasn’t been for a season and a half, and the Wildcats have been nearly unwatchable in late-game situations since Agent Zero graduated.
Northwestern has proven it can compete with anyone this season. It may not feel like it, but it had a lead with 4:30 to play on a neutral site against #23 Virginia and trailed by 2 points with under three to play on the road at top-12 Michigan State. The problem is the ‘Cats are just 2-7 in power conference games and all, but Wisconsin has been close. They are a stunning minus-25 point differential in “clutch time” in those eight games, never outscoring their opponent by more than 1 in the final five minutes of those games.
Offense
Season-long readers may know my mixed feelings on Jayden Reid. Suffice it to say, I have been frustrated with his defense and shot selection all season long. It’s worth mentioning he played an excellent game against Minnesota, so I don’t want it to seem like I’m picking on Reid specifically because late-game scoring is a team-wide problem.
This is the first possession after Minnesota has come back on a 10-2 run to regain the lead. Reid gets downcourt and the ‘Cats initiate a very basic Spain action, in which Page down screens for Martinelli, who comes to set a ball screen for Reid. Spain is a super common action that is slightly more complex than a plain middle ball screen, but gets three defenders in the play instead of two. The first problem is that Page sets a completely lackluster pick for Martinelli. There’s no intention behind it; he barely leans in and just nudges Martinelli’s defender. It’s so bad, in fact, that Martinelli stops as if thinking, “This can’t be the play we called.” Martinelli still goes to try and run the middle ball screen, but does a very bad job of setting the first screen and has to try a second time. At this point, neither Clayton or Ciaravino have budged from the corner, making their defender’s jobs easy and Page is attempting to be in the dunker’s spot but is way too close to the paint, bringing an extra defender with him who can contest any potential layups and stop Page simultaneously.
The shot Reid gets isn’t actually bad, but the possession is frustrating and emblematic of many a late-game scenario this season. 19 seconds run off the clock, nobody but Reid touches the ball as the team attempts to f0rce-feed Martinelli and instead has to scramble when that option gets cut off. While I understand the need to get your best player and the nation’s leading scorer the ball, he’s at his best when he gets touches in the flow of the action and the current clutch offense simply is not working.
Defense
This clip fills both offense and defense categories and I’ll be discussing both. I just put it here because there are two defensive possessions. First, this is a classic example of Page and Reid struggling mightily on the defensive end, which has happened far too often. The first screen attempt takes Page out of position, which leads to a breakdown quickly during Act Two. Reid gets picked off and doesn’t fight particularly hard to get through the screen. Page is forced to backpedal and when Jeremy Fears shields off Reid, Page is stuck in no-man’s land and becomes an easy seal for Carson Cooper.
While I tend to trust Collins’ defensive coaching decisions, I’m mystified here by the choice to go into a hedge scheme. Fears is a non-shooter well outside the arc, meaning there is no reason not to go into a deep drop (which is what Page is more comfortable with anyway). However, if hedging is the play call, Page HAS to do a better job of getting to the point of attack early and aggressively. The first screen disconnects Page from Cooper, so when Cooper re-screens, Page is late on the hedge and is forced to backpedal. A well-defended possession would see Page jump in front of Fears, forcing a retreat and regather, before finding Cooper. Instead, Fears has free rein to continue on downhill, and Reid can’t recover.
Offensively, there isn’t much to say. Reid takes an awful shot amongst the trees, yet another instance of a zero-pass possession. He then goes careening into Page and they both go down, creating a 4-on-3 and a monster Coen Carr slam that ended a 10-2 run and killed any hope of a comeback.
I dislike writing an article this defeated, so I’m including one good clip. What may go lost in the 10-point loss to Michigan State is the seven-point halftime lead. The ‘Cats absolutely stifled Sparty in the final five minutes of the frame, en route to an 11-0 closing run.
There are two things I want to highlight on this possession, one of the best of the game. First is Jayden Reid blowing up a screen. He’s consistently outsized in the Big Ten (and most other games) by all opponents, which means he’s at a natural disadvantage defensively. But at the 19-second mark on the shot clock, Reid does a great job to defend the off-ball rip screen by getting underneath the action, and then follows that up with a slight shove to blow up the ball screen and force Fears to chase after the ball. Could that be a foul? Yeah. But when the 5’9 dude is shoved by the 6’10 forward just a little, no ref is calling it. Reid has to take advantage of any edge he can get and defend more ball screens with physicality, rather than the prior clip where he got stuck shielded off.
The other thing worth mentioning is schematic. It used to be a staple of the Collins and Chris Lowery defense to bring a weakside double anytime the ball got into the post. We haven’t seen it much this year, but the coaching staff broke it out in this game to great effect. The pass ends up going awry and into the hands of Max Green anyway, but even if it was on target, Green was in position for a great double and Cooper would’ve been hard-pressed to make something happen.
Coach Collins Clip of the Week
I haven’t had a lot to choose from this season, as the bench boss has been unusually muted on the sidelines. This clip is pure gold, though.
Not one word is uttered by the head man after a ludicrous call on Reid, resulting in free throws instead of a layup the other way. Instead, Collins just puts his head in his hands and proceeds to stare unseeingly into the distance. His expression is the doomed face a person makes when they already know the outcome, and it isn’t going to be good. The ensuing free throws gave Minnesota its first lead of the latter portion of the game and the one it wouldn’t relinquish.
