Rather remarkably, the Cubs have scored eight total runs in the three first innings in this series. They’ve scored in each of the three. They’ve homered in each of the three. And, in fact, they’ve scored more
runs each time. They erased the monkey of 13 consecutive postseason appearances with three or fewer runs scored, all in one inning. Every one of those facts would be interesting all by themselves. They have yet to score a single run after the first inning. Call me Nostradamus, there is no way all of those trends continue on to Game 4.
However, the Cubs did advance to Game 4. I understand the journey that the last eight years have been with all of the inherent frustrations and failures along the way. I understand why it has been so easy to forget. The curse died. Not in 2016, but in 2015. Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and a cast of dozens, if not hundreds turned the Chicago Cubs from being a franchise that seemingly embraced the description of lovable losers into something else.
I get it. If you are old enough to have followed baseball since the dawn of this century, you’ve seen the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Cardinals and Dodgers all win multiple championships. Some of those hurt more than others. It’s easy to sometimes still feel tortured. Thirteen of the 30 MLB teams have won championships, the Cubs obviously being one of them. 17 teams have watched 25 championships come and go and a good handful of them haven’t even had the pleasure of playing in a championship series.
The Cubs have not taken a place among the baseball elite yet. The Cardinals remain the darling of the NL Central despite their own slow descent into non-contender status. But the Cubs did win a championship. The real transformation was in 2015 when an upstart Cub team went berserk in the second half and crashed the postseason one year before the opening of their supposed championship window. Not only did they make the playoffs, but they won a Wild Card game and then the Division Series (against those Cardinals).
The Cubs stopped being a team that just got steamrolled once the postseason began. They’d advance through two rounds that year. Then they’d win three series the next year on the way to a championship. And then another the following year, making their third straight NLCS appearance. It seemed like they were becoming part of the baseball elite.
There, the pain began. A frustrating extra-inning Wild Card Game loss. A Game 163 loss. A total whiff. A bounce back in the weird 2020 season leading to a hasty exit. A rebuild and a couple of rough years. A September collapse. A team that wasn’t quite good enough. And then 2025. Another upstart team. They added Kyle Tucker and they got good way faster than anyone ever expected. Cade Horton burst onto the scene and bolstered a surprisingly good but overworked rotation. So much going for this team.
Injuries took a lot of win out of the sales. Cade Horton isn’t even on the NLDS roster. Kyle Tucker lost his power stroke with a midseason injury and then his speed with a late season injury. But this team is not part of those lovable losers. This team is not going quietly. Even after a truly unfortunate run in the top of the first put them all the way behind the 8 ball, they battled back.
Michael Busch is one of the best players in baseball who isn’t a household name and who is still platooned by his own team. He led off the bottom of the first with a game-tying homer into a wind that was blowing in. The offense scratched and clawed and hustled its way to three more runs in that first inning. Would it be enough?
Just.
This is still a tall order. The Brewers are very good. They grind and they fight. They make few mistakes. You have to come and take it. This time, the Cubs took it. Can they do it two more times? I will say it every time. The 26 guys on this roster presently are enough to take it. They can do it. It’s an extremely tall order. They are probably going to have to catch a break or two. They haven’t caught many in this series.
Craig Counsell is going to have to be extremely good. There is no margin for error. There is no blueprint for getting through 54 more outs in this series. All hands will be on deck Thursday evening. It will surely take another six-pitcher effort, as they had Wednesday. One misstep might take this team with it. Even if Counsell pushes all of the right buttons, the Cub offense is going to have to be better than it has been. Actual Brewer relievers threw 5.1 innings of relief. But their highest leverage guys have yet to throw in the series. They ARE going to pitch Thursday. At some point, you have to get them an inning, even if the Cubs somehow blow the game out.
Buckle up. Things have to go right. But if they do, this team can do what those Championship Cubs did. That is, come back from down two in the series to force a decisive game. On the road. And there ain’t gonna be no rain delays. But getting to win or go home is what it is all about.
Pitch Counts:
- Brewers: 161, 34 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 153, 37 BF
The Brewers threw 20.125 PPI and the Cubs 17. Can you imagine if all baseball games were played this way? This is pure chaos. Normally, a “red zone” result of more than 20 PPI will doom you. But, when you can throw an endless line of fresh relievers at the problem, you can dodge and weave your way through it. I saw a lot of Cub social media pretending that the Cubs didn’t do anything after the first inning. They definitely didn’t cash in. But there is a reason the Brewers used six different relievers in this game.
Each team faced 10 extra batters in the game. This game alone probably took a year off of both manager’s lives and most of their respective fans. The parade of Brewers that followed Quinn Priester did manage to walk through a minefield and come out unscathed. We’ll know more Thursday night about the toll it took.
How many innings can the Brewers count on out of their highest leverage guys who haven’t been needed? Whatever that answer is, the Cubs need to have the lead before that point in the game. And their own guys, who all worked in this game. They’ve got to lock it down. And they’ll almost certainly all be facing batters that have had at least one and often multiple looks at them already in this series.
Star Performances:
- Jameson Taillon’s line shows two runs over four. That first one should not be a run. I’m well aware of the Wrigley sun and wind. Someone needed to be under that pop up. So hard to believe that catcher Carson Kelly was the closest. Jameson has pitched in two elimination type games and delivered both times. He’ll tell Craig he’s good for a couple of innings on Saturday if they can get there.
- Michael Busch, lead-off homer. The first Cub to ever lead off two games in the same postseason with homers.
- Nico Hoerner, two more hits and a run scored. So steady. So consistent.
- Kyle Tucker. Two singles and a walk. Scored a run. One really costly baserunning play.
- Ian Happ. Two walks and scored a run.
- PCA. An enormous 2-run single in the first.
- Dansby Swanson, single and a walk.
- Daniel Palencia, a perfect inning.
- Drew Pomeranz, a perfect inning with two strikeouts.
- Brad Keller. Four high leverage outs to close it out. Two strikeouts.
Every one of them mattered. Not too many of those can be eliminated and this series is still going.
NLDS Game 2, October 8: Cubs 4, Brewers 3 (1-2)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Brad Keller (.280). 1.1 IP, 5 BF, BB, 2 K (Sv 2)
- Hero: Caleb Thielbar (.146). 0.2 IP, 3 BF, BB, K
- Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.128). 1-4, RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Andrew Kittredge (-.178). IP, 2 H, ER, K
- Goat: Carson Kelly (.-123). 0-4
- Kid: Matt Shaw (-.051). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Brad Keller’s strikeout of Jake Bauers with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth inning. (.175)
*Brewers Play of the Game: Jackson Chourio’s leadoff double off Andrew Kittredge in the the top of the eighth with the Cubs clinging to a one-run lead. (.148)
Jake Bauers was involved with three of the five biggest plays in the game. His strikeout was the biggest, his homer in the seventh was the fourth biggest play and his RBI-single in the fourth the fifth biggest. PCA’s two-run single was the second biggest play of the game. (.167)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Previous Winner: Seiya Suzuki with 144 of 176 votes.
H&G Top/Bottom:
- Colin Rea +5
- Ian Happ -6
Up Next: Game 4 is once again in the super late slot, 8:08 p.m. CT. We’ll all be ready for sleep when the season ends. Hopefully sometime in November. Do or die once again. Neither team has announced a starter at this time. Al will have so much more on this as it becomes available. For my money, Craig Counsell started Matthew Boyd in the opener with an eye on him pitching again in this game. He’s been dominant at Wrigley. Start him here. Figure out Saturday then. That’s surely going to be an all hands bullpen game if you can get there. Start Boyd. You need a good start to this game and to grab the lead.
Keep the dream alive.
