With the start of free agency and trades (including a failed one) dominating the NFL news cycle for the last week or two, fans may not have noticed that FanDuel dropped its initial wagers for NFL team win totals. Believe it or not, some folks await this moment like little kids on Christmas morning.
Is it a little premature for posting win totals, while free agency is in a frenzy and before the annual player draft? Sure it is. Is it fun to analyze them? You bet it is, and the word bet is intentional.
A lot of gamblers like to get in early if they see a line they really like, before the odds change or in rare cases, the line moves.
The Giants’ total on FanDuel is set at 7.5 wins for this coming season, which reflects a big jump from both the 2025 FanDuel total (5.5 wins) and the team’s actual 2025 record (4-13). To hit the “over” wager, the Giants will need to at least double their win total from last season. Can they do it? Well, right now the offered wagers favor them coming up short, as the odds for the over are at slightly plus-money (+110) while the odds for the under are at -130. Those odds will keep changing as wagers come in while the offseason continues to unfold.
As noted above, Big Blue’s 2026 FanDuel total is a full 3.5 wins higher than their actual win total from last season. Only the Chiefs show a larger difference from 2025 (10.5 win total on offer, after a dismal 6-11 season), but they went to three straight Super Bowls before last season’s collapse. Three other teams (BAL, CIN, and TEN) have the same 3.5 jump in wins as the Giants. So the bookmakers think New York is in the Top-5 for a positive turnaround.
Why is there so much optimism? There are multiple reasons. The 2025 Giants had the NFL’s hardest schedule (based on the prior season’s winning percentage of their opponents), while this season, they’re middle of the pack with the 17th-ranked schedule. Their 2026 opponents had a .498 winning percentage in 2025. Last season, the NFC East played the NFC North and AFC West, which were two of the strongest and deepest divisions in football. The 2026 schedule isn’t out yet, but we do know the opponents. This season, NFC East teams face the NFC West (ugh) and the AFC South (not so bad), and New York’s fourth-place schedule nets them additional games against the Saints, Lions, and Browns. They also play their division foes twice each, as they do every season. It’s not an easy slate by any means, but it’s not brutal like last season.
The schedule isn’t the only reason for the jump, though. The arrival of John Harbaugh and a new coaching staff is probably the main factor in play here. There’s an expectation of better stability, preparedness, and professionalism as a new culture hopefully takes hold. On top of that, Jaxson Dart showed plenty of promise and growth as a rookie and has a year of valuable experience under his belt. Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo should be recovered from their injuries and ready to go Week 1, which is also a big plus.
Finally, free agency probably hasn’t moved the needle either way thus far, but the team does have the fifth pick in next month’s draft, and the expectation is that the Giants should be able to select an impact player at that spot. Hopefully, they’ll also add additional pieces in the draft that can help this season.
That’s a lot of positives, but positives alone don’t win games on Sundays. The Giants only won four games last season, and they blew a couple of big leads along the way. There are no easy games in the division (Washington should rebound if Jayden Daniels can stay on the field), and who knows how the factors noted above will actually play out across the 2026 season, and how much injuries and other unforeseen events will weigh in. Still, given the current odds, my lean is OVER 7.5 wins, at +110. I think this team can win eight or nine games in the first year of the Harbaugh regime, and I like getting plus-odds for that.
Here are a few additional tidbits from the FanDuel totals. The highest win totals on offer are the defending champion Seahawks, plus the Ravens and Rams, at 11.5 wins each. The lowest totals belong to Miami and Arizona, at 4.5 wins apiece. The totals for the other NFC East teams are Philadelphia: 10.5, Dallas: 8.5, and Washington: 7.5, which puts the division at an even 34-34 win-loss projection, based on those totals.
