2025-2026 Season
Overall Record: 9-4
Big 10 Record: 1-1
Previous 3 Games
12/30: W – 80-60 vs Milwaukee @ Home
12/22: W – 88 – 61 vs Central Michigan @ Home
12/19: L – 66- 76 (OT) vs Villanova @ Neutral
Wisconsin Personnel
Starters
Bench
Key Analytics
(Per KenPom.com – National Rank in ())
KenPom Ranking – 42
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency: 116.9
(62)
Adjusted Tempo: 71.4 (62)
Average Possession Length: 16.3 (82)
Effective Field Goal%: 53.6 (93)
Offensive Rebound%: 30.8 (188)
Three Point%: 33.6 (184)
Two Point %: 35.2 (194)
Defense
Adjusted Efficiency: 100.1 (46)
Adjusted Tempo: 71.4 (62)
Average Possession Length: 17.4 (221)
Effective Field Goal%: 53.6 (93)
Offensive Rebound%: 24.1 (11)
Three Point%: 33.4 (174)
Two Point %: 49.6 (112)
Thoughts
In professional wrestling parlance, Wisconsin is a classic mid-carder. They beat up on the jobbers (teams ranked 100+ on KenPom), split matches with other mid-carders (teams ranked between 50-100 on KenPom), and lose to the superstars (teams ranked in the KenPom top 50). They do a nice job of filling out the card, but no one is coming to a show to see this Wisconsin team. They have their place, and their place is important, but that place isn’t at the top of the conference.
Unfortunately for Greg Gard, he’s bringing Billy Gunn to a showdown with The Rock.
Not only does Wisconsin lose to top-50 KenPom teams, but they have a penchant for getting blown out. BYU buttoned up their sports coats, knocked on their door, and wouldn’t let them leave. The final score was 98-70, and BYU was being kind. To make matters worse (or better for Purdue, I suppose), Nebraska shucked their corn to the tune of 60-90. Their only competitive game against a top 50 opponent came in a 76-66 overtime loss to Villanova. Unlike their mascot, this team rolls over and plays dead when faced with a top predator. They’ve been more like opossums than badgers this season.
The issue is their 3-point shooting.
They shoot a bunch of them, and when they don’t hit them, they lose. They went 7-32 from deep in their loss to Nebraska and 7-29 in their loss to BYU. Even in their highest-ranked KenPom victory, an 85-73 win over Northwestern, they chucked 31 attempts at the rim from behind the arc and connected on 11. It’s always problematic when you think you’re good at something that you’re really not good at. This happens to me sometimes when I attempt to navigate around the maze that is Athens, Georgia, without my GPS. I am highly confident in my ability to get where I’m going, right up until I find myself hopelessly lost.
You’ve almost got to give them credit for continuing to shoot despite the ball rarely going in the basket. That’s the type of optimism I can get behind, mainly because it’s the same optimism I lean on in pick-up games. I mean, if you’re 0-4, the next one is bound to go down, that’s math (I say to myself as my fifth offering draws nothing but iron)!
I can see Gregg Gard’s vision for this team.
Everyone in the starting lineup, in theory, is a threat from behind the arc. The problem is, sometimes theories are proven wrong when applied to practical matters. These guys must kill it in practice because starting point guard Nick Boyd is 20-67 (29%) and reserve power forward Austin Rapp is 20-67 (29%) as well. To put that in perspective, Braden is 21-57 (40%), and CJ Cox is 18-43 (42%). The closest Purdue comparison is Omer, who is 12-44 (27%), but the difference is that Purdue doesn’t need Omer to shoot well; Wisconsin needs Boyd and Rapp to hit shots if they want to beat anyone with a pulse.
The one exception to the poor Badger shooting is John Blackwell. Maybe you see if Boyd and Rapp are interested in offering up a few ill-conceived 3’s, but Blackwell is shooting 32-80 (40%) and averaging 19.2 points a game. He needs a hand in his face at all times.
John Blackwell, meet CJ Cox.
CJ has locked up a couple of the best perimeter players in the nation this season, and he should be stuck to Wisconsin’s star wing all game long, with Gicarri tagging in to keep fresh legs on Blackwell at all times. Needless to say, Purdue should probably avoid helping off of Blackwell if at all possible. Their guards don’t want to finish at the rim anyway. As always, I’ll take a contested two over and open three any day of the week, especially against this particular team, who might kick the ball out instead of attempting a wide-open layup anyway.
Interestingly enough, despite shooting like he’s angry at the rim, Nick Boyd leads Wisconsin in scoring. He’s the creator, and Blackwell is the finisher. With CJ on Blackwell, Braden should draw the Boyd assignment. I don’t think Braden be available to freelance in this game because Boyd spends a good bit of time pounding the ball into the court. He’s 56th in the nation in terms of percentage of possessions used. Smith has been setting the tone for Purdue with his defense this year, which, admittedly, I did not have on my bingo card coming into the season. Boyd is a crafty player and is adept at drawing fouls. This is a little bit of a different assignment for Purdue’s senior leader, but I expect him to be up to the task. I’m wasting pixels on the following sentence, but I’m required to type it.
It would be in Purdue’s best interest if Braden Smith avoided getting into foul trouble (This is the type of hard-hitting analysis you’ve come to expect from Hammer and Rails!)!
It really comes down to this: Wisconsin needs Boyd and Blackwell to score. If Purdue can slow either of them down, I don’t see a way forward for the Badgers. I think they need to hit 40 points combined for their team to have a chance in this one, because I don’t see the defense bothering Purdue.
Speaking of their defense, it’s standard, mediocre, fair. Consider it the Applebee’s of the Big 10. It’s OK, maybe not even bad, but it’s nothing you’re going to remember the next day. The one exception is rebounding. Consider rebounding the riblet basket for Wisconsin—the one true standout on an otherwise average defensive menu. Take a look at their roster, Gard has three players standing 6’10” or above in his regular rotation. They’re the 11th-best defensive rebounding team in the nation; Purdue is the ninth-best offensive rebounding team in the country. Something has to give on the boards.
Wisconsin’s Path to Victory
It’s a path as thin and narrow as the strip of hair still clinging to the top of my skull. So thin and narrow that it may, in fact, only be a memory.
Y’all know basketball, I’m sure you can figure it out.
Step 1:
Instead of missing a bunch of 3’s, they make a bunch of 3’s.
Step 2:
Purdue gets anxious, starts trying to match them from deep, can’t find the range, and can’t get on the offensive glass.
Step 3:
Joe Krabbenhoft hits Braden with a folding chair as he runs past the Wisconsin bench. Krabbenhoft then puts his hands up like “I have no idea what happened, or why this chair is in my hand.”
If all three of those things happen, the Badgers might pull this off.
Prediction
KenPom
Purdue: 81
Wisconsin: 73
Drew
Purdue: 74
Wisconsin: 67
My concern is this: Purdue shoots poorly in the Kohl Center. They didn’t play the Badgers on the road last year, but in 2024, Purdue went 3-11 from deep, and Lance hit all 3. In 2023, they went 4-19, with Ethan Morton leading the way at 2-4. This is a crazy stat, but Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have hit a combined two three-pointers in the Kohl Center over their career.
In the end, I think Purdue’s inside game overwhelms the Badgers, who hit enough shots to keep it close, but never truly threaten in a low-scoring, relatively ugly affair.
