After a win over the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys face a much tougher task this week, hosting the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco has been, without a doubt, one of, if not the best team in the league nine weeks into the regular season.
The Cowboys have plenty to be worried about in this matchup. With that thought in mind, here are three causes for concern in Week 10.
1) 49ers Rushing Attack
If you don’t stop the run, you are going to have a hard time beating the 49ers. Led by All-Pro Christian
McCaffrey, the 49ers have once again been one of the best running teams in football this year. San Fran has recorded 125 or more team rushing yards in five of their eight games and ranks seventh in rushing Y/A (4.6) and third in rush EPA(-0.001), while leading the league in rush success rate (49.5). One big reason for San Francisco’s success on the ground has been the emergence of rookie running back Kaelon Black. The 49ers spent a third-round pick on Black, hoping he could share the load with McCaffrey and keep the star runner healthy throughout the entire regular season. So far, the plan has worked to perfection. McCaffrey, who has played in all eight games this season, has scored the second-most (9) rushing touchdowns in the league on just 102 rushing attempts. Both he and Black are averaging 4.5 Y/A with rush success rates of 55% or higher. The duo has worked out about as well as the 49ers could have imagined, and their run game is performing about as well as any in the league. If the Cowboys want any chance of staying in this game, their top priority needs to be winning on first and second down and keeping San Francisco’s run game from getting going.
2) San Francisco’s League-Best Run Defense
Another thing the 49ers do better than any team in the league this season is limit the opposing team’s success on the ground. San Francisco leads the league in defensive rush EPA (-0.215) and Y/A allowed (3.3). The 49ers have not given up 100 rushing yards in a game since their Week 2 matchup against the Miami Dolphins, when they surrendered just 102.
The 49ers have been dominant at stopping the run all season, but their last three games in particular have been as good as it gets in that department. San Francisco has allowed an average of just 53 rushing yards over those three games, along with a remarkable –0.290 defensive rush EPA and a 34.9% rush SR.
When the Cowboys’ offense has lacked balance this season, they’ve struggled. It’s going to be extremely hard for Dallas’ offense to play complementary football on Sunday against this San Francisco run defense. If the 49ers continue their trench dominance, it may be a long afternoon for the Cowboys.
3) The Kyle Shanahan Problem
Few people give the Dallas Cowboys more headaches than Kyle Shanahan. The veteran head coach has been a thorn in Dallas’ side for years, with his 49ers dominating the matchup between the two teams for quite some time.
Shanahan’s 49ers have won four of their last six matchups (including the playoffs) against the Cowboys, averaging 26 points per game. Dallas has not beaten a Shanahan-led 49ers team since December 2020, when they won a fairly meaningless game late in the regular season.
Until we see it happen, it’s hard to have any confidence that the Cowboys can truly compete with Shanahan and the 49ers. Let’s hope the one-sided rivalry flips on its head come Sunday afternoon.
