The San Francisco Giants need pitching. Everybody knows it. While the bullpen will, correctly, draw the most attention, the rotation might actually be more important — again. It seems that every year since Kevin Gausman was kicked to the curb, the Giants have had to resort to free agency to beef up the staff. A far cry from the championship era in that respect. Does this year’s free agent SP market offer a pathway back to relevance for a 65-win team and a franchise that has been second division for most of the last
decade?
Probably not. But, let’s follow Susan Slusser’s lead— as she’s been out there throwing pitching spaghetti at the wall since last week — and take a look at the market anyway. The first step to not being bad is to get better players, after all; and, by some measures, the Giants might not have that much work to do…
Oh, and this important note for the rest of the piece: players with options or opt-outs aren’t included.
The Giants could never!
Tarik Skubal
Skubal’s floor is Dylan Cease’s 7-year, $210 million contract, and I might be insulting Skubal by writing that. The 2024 and 2025 AL Cy Young Award winner will turn 30 in November, but based on that track record, and that he’s pitched fewer than 1,000 MLB innings, a more reasonable comp might be something closer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million contract — not in years, of course, but definitely in dollars. So, on money alone, the Giants would stay away.
Add to that his left arm has already experienced two long injury stints: 2022-2023 with left arm fatigue, a chunk of this season (2026) for loose bodies in his pitching elbow. He’s too good, too expensive, and too risky for the Giants. And if they did decide to throw in their hat, they’d be viewed as too bad to merit consideration.
But in the latest There R Giants Podcast, Roger Munter interviewed Alex Pavlovic and the two discussed Tyler Mahle and the bullpen project and how the team needed to make smart moves and my tag to the end of that is they need to make smart moves if they’re not going to make big moves like this. The organization does not want to give out long-term contracts to starting pitchers or spend big money on relievers and so it becomes important to acquisition and development to find or create surplus value.
If a rotation is in need of talent and innings, then adding Tarik Skubal sounds like a smart move. But! The Giants don’t believe that’s a plausible or even rational decision, and so we must create this specialty category for him so that the thought can be fully and formally dismissed and we can continue. I think any reporter who asks the front office about a Skubal pursuit will be able to write an article about how quickly the team dismisses the idea. He is the one player they just seem immediately out on.
At the end of the day, one must imagine Buster & Zack to be happy with the idea of bringing in 1-2 pitchers who can provide 100 quality innings. Sort of like the thinking behind the Verlander signing — or even the Mahle and Houser deals. Moving on…
Nah
Robbie Ray
Tyler Mahle
Miles Mikolas
Lance McCullers, Jr.
Austin Gomber
Frankie Montas
Zach Eflin
Luis Garcia
I will allow that it’s no impossible for the Giants to pursue Tarik Skubal, but I think the chances of them landing him if they did decide to do that would be as close to nonzero as it gets. I don’t feel that’s totally the case with this trio. I could be wrong, but I just don’t see the Giants going in this direction.
For one thing, they got pretty much everything they could’ve hoped for out of the Robbie Ray experience: swapping dead contracts for real innings and peeling off two prospects from a rival’s gutted farm system.
For another thing, they had Tyler Mahle very recently and did not optimize the experience. Indeed, after his success post-trade, he’s likely to command more than the $10 million the Giants signed him for this past offseason and he’s likely to get some attention from teams that figure to be better. The Giants might be willing to offer more and think that they can port over his Atlanta success, but I’m going to guess that the Giants won’t come in as the highest bidder for an arm that’s cracked 130 innings just once in the past 5 seasons and he’s unlikely to have interest in the Giants because they’ve been losers for a decade and didn’t help him succeed.
And then there’s Miles Mikolas, who stinks. He certainly would fit in, culturally, and his being bad would fit in with the team’s general performance of the past decade, too, but a 38-year old soft-tossing right who just posted an ERA of 5.82 and a 5+ FIP the past two seasons doesn’t seem like a smart investment.
McCullers Jr. was released by the Brewers 11 days after they traded for him and that was after spending most of 2026 on the IL recovering from right shoulder inflammation and in the 44 MLB innings he did through, he had a 6.55 ERA (4.96 FIP) and a 5.5 BB/9 (a 9.8 K/9, though). Gomber bounced around on MiLB deals and didn’t appear in the majors in 2026. Montas missed all of the year recovering from Tommy John. As curiosities or projects, none of these three are completely bad options (well, except maybe Gomber), but if any are considered as primary targets for improving the rotation… woof. A clear sign of a season that’s going to be punted.
Meanwhile, Eflin won’t be available until mid-2027 at the earliest following Tommy John surgery. Garcia spent all of 2026 rehabbing from Tommy John and didn’t appear in any professional games.
35+ crowd (as of Opening Day 2027)
Let’s start with the geezers veterans because we can imagine a scenario where Posey pulls a Verlander and looks for one or two to solidify a shaky group after Logan Webb. I would be surprised if the team came away impressed by Landen Roupp’s season. Maybe relieved more than anything. The odds of him doing that again — just from an innings logged standpoint — seem low. But this age group doesn’t promise 200 innings, either; so, it’s all about finding someone (or someones?) who can provide 100 good to great innings.
Max Scherzer (RHP, 42 | 4-9, 5.74 ERA, 84.2 IP, +0.3 fWAR)
Scherzer might’ve thrown his last pitch in the major leagues, but until he announces it (angrily, I’d imagine), I’m keeping him on the list solely because of the Tony Vitello connection — okay, well, and if he truly dislikes Justin Verlander, then coming to San Francisco and having a better go of it might also serve as an additional thumb in the eye. I don’t necessarily see 100 quality innings out of him unless being in the Bay Area alters his lifestyle to the point that his body is revitalized.
Chris Bassitt (RHP, 38 | 9-5, 4.41 ERA, 102 IP, +1.0 fWAR)
He seems like the sneaky Moneyball pick of lower cost and some warts (age, mainly) but with enough upside to make it all worth it, but the Baltimore Orioles had this same thought when they signed him to an $18.5 million deal last offseason. In the prior five seasons (his age 32-36 seasons), he threw 880.1 innings and had a 3.66 ERA (3.89 FIP, +13.4 fWAR), which averages out to 176 IP and about 2.7 wins above replacement. His 2026 strikeout rate plummeted (16.1% — career: 22%) and his walk rate increased year over year (8.3% versus 7.1% in 2025) — a terrible combination. He’s also mulling retirement.
Martín Pérez (LHP, 36 | 9-9, 3.04 ERA, 142 IP, +1.5 fWAR)
All he seems to do is offer up 100 good innings year after year, and even if the numbers aren’t great, they’re at least not terrible — 3.79 ERA in his last 785 IP (2021-2026) — and as a veteran soft-tossing lefty, maybe there’s room for him to mentor Cesar Perdomo and/or Matt Wilkinson? He’d be a very low-cost option, having signed a 1-year $3.37 million deal last offseason.
Kevin Gausman (RHP, 36 | 9-12, 4.51 ERA, 177.2 IP, +3.1 fWAR)
It would be funny if they brought back Gausman on a 1-year deal. He has certainly pitched well enough to merit interest from several teams in the offseason. A simple cheat code here: he has sustained success by doing exactly what Tyler Mahle did once he got to Atlanta. To wit:
Tyler Mahle pitch mix / ERA by month (2026):
April: 4-seam (47.8%), split (26.6%), cutter (14.6%), slider (7.8%), sinker (3.2%) — 5.87 ERA
May: 4-seam (49%), split (22.3%), cutter (16.6%), slider (12.1%), sinker (0%) — 6.23 ERA
June: 4-seam (47.1%), split (30.3%), cutter (5.2%), slider (17.4%) — 3.60 ERA
July: 4-seam (49.2%), split (23.5%), cutter (26%), slider (1.4%) — 2.82 ERA
August (with ATL): 4-seam (48.8%), split (36.5%), cutter (14%), slider (0.7 %) — 2.50 ERA
September (with ATL): 4-seam (47.4%), split (38.4%), cutter (7.9%), slider (6.3%) — 2.63 ERA
Kevin Gausman pitch mix / ERA by season (2021-2026)
2021: 4-seam (52.6%), split (35.5%), slider (6.2%), changeup (5.6%), sinker (0.2%) — 2.81 ERA
2022: 4-seam (48.8%), split (37.4%), slider (14.4%), changeup (1.3%) — 3.35 ERA
2023: 4-seam (50.7%), split (38.3%), slider (10.2%), sinker (0.2%), sweeper (0.6%) — 3.16 ERA
2024: 4-seam (51.9%), split (33.4%), slider (8.4%), sinker (6.3%) — 3.83 ERA
2025: 4-seam (53.7%), split (37.4%), slider (8.8%), sinker (0.1%) — 3.59 ERA
2026: 4-seam (50.6%), split (39.2%), slider (8.1%), change (1.2%), sweeper (0.9%) — 4.51 ERA
Do both parties want a reunion where he returns to chuck splitters at NL West rivals? He is the most durable and recently effective of this group.
Michael Lorenzen (RHP, 35 | 3-13, 7.21 ERA, 127.1 IP, +0.2 fWAR)
Jose Quintana (LHP, 38 | 2-3, 5.44 ERA, 48 IP, -0.1 fWAR)
Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP, 37 | 12-12, 154.1 IP, +0.4 fWAR)
I’ve bunched the three Rockies starters together because I think this combination of Coors Field experience, age, and in all three cases, innings logged (1,000+ — in Sugano’s case, most in Japan) are enough to write them off. The Giants could probably do better… or, if they’re delving into this trio then things aren’t going well.
The org has already had Jose Quintana. They’ve been linked to Michael Lorenzen before. Sugano’s cutter has been effective in the past and he throws a lot of splitters, so, maybe he could be the Tyler Mahle they envisioned, but at the end of the day — come on. It’s unlikely these are the 100 good innings they (or we) might envision.
Jameson Taillon (RHP, 35 | 1,323 IP)
Trevor Williams (RHP, 35 | 2-0, 3.14 ERA, 28.2 IP, +0.2 fWAR)
Taillon was designated for assignment in July and his season, after catching on with the Blue Jays post-DFA, ended with an elbow injury. Trevor Williams returned from an elbow injury this season, and he’s thrown over 130 innings just once since 2020 (144.1 IP in 2023).
Not 35+ but 1,000+ MLB innings
I’ll keep citing my Logan Webb article from May until it stops seeming relevant, but, 1,000 innings seems to be a clear line of demarcation in a major league starter’s career. It’s usually the moment when the injuries kick in and it’s usually when the Hall of Famers start to separate themselves from the pack.
Taijuan Walker (RHP, 1,300.2 IP)
Germán Márquez (RHP, 1,199.1 IP)
Both were released by the teams they started the season with (Phillies & Padres, respectively), but neither were able to return to the majors after catching on with a second team (Angels & Twins, respectively). If they’re going to be in a major league rotation in 2027, it won’t be because of a team planning for that in the offseason.
Shōta Imanaga (LHP, 1,211.2 IP*)
Back in June 2024, after Imanaga had hit the ground running after coming over from Japan, Farhan Zaidi was asked why the team walked away from him and Zaidi offered a lengthy, detailed explanation. In part:
Our pitch-grade models really liked him,” Zaidi said. “They had plus grades on all three of his pitches — fastball, split and breaking ball. But our scouting reports weren’t as strong, and it’s understandable because what makes his pitches so effective doesn’t jump out to the naked eye.
At the time of publication, Imanaga had a 1.86 / 2.77 FIP in his first 58 MLB innings — but he was just coming off of a 4-inning 7-earned run start. Since then, he’s still been pretty good, but not the next Tarik Skubal (3.67 ERA /4.53 FIP in 434.1 IP). I have doubts that even this front office will be all that interested in him.
Zac Gallen (RHP, 1,112.2 IP)
He certainly feels like the most Giantsy move of the offseason, but it’s important to keep in mind that Gallen was really bad in 2026 (6.07 ERA / 5.34 FIP in 105.1 IP) to the point that he ended the season in the bullpen.
He feels like a perfect example of the 1,000 inning crossroad. His first 6 seasons (2019-2024) sported a 3.29 ERA in 815.1 innings pitched with a 9.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9. Last season, he had a 4.83 ERA (4.50 FIP) in 192 IP. His K/9 dropped to 8.2, walk rate rose to 3.1 per 9, HR/9 to 1.5. This year, 5.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9.
When he was successful, his fastballs were in the 15-20% range in terms of Whiff rate. The past two seasons it’s fallen to 6-8%. It’s all about fixing his fastball. The velocity is still mostly there (he’s always been a 93-95 guy).
Freddy Peralta (RHP, 1,100 IP)
After being traded to the Rays, he’s become the belle of the ball this offseason. That probably takes him out of the Giants’ price range and interest level, because he might command an ace or near-ace AAV for a pitcher who looks like a #2 or #3 on paper, even with Tampa Bay’s adjustments. But there’s a lot to like in the profile, including the strikeout stuff. Before the Mets metsed him up in 2026, his 2021-2025 numbers were fantastic: 10.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, 3.30 ERA / 3.65 FIP, 14.7 fWAR.
Remarkably, he’s made just one start, had just one appearance at Oracle Park in his career. A 5-inning start last season.
Erick Fedde (RHP, 1,094 IP)
Fedde was able to save his career by the skin of his teeth. After a reinvention in Japan, his 3.4 fWAR 2024 quickly pumpkin’d into a 5.49 ERA/-0.2 fWAR for three teams in 2025. The White Sox sort of Adrian Houser’d him this season where he was a starter but also a bulk guy, but despite the clever deployment and his 3.83 ERA, he sported a 5.01 FIP and 6.3 K/9, that was, essentially, replacement level (-0.1 fWAR).
You can see why teams might be feeling Fedde, though, because he has a great sweeper (+12 run value — the 33rd most valuable pitch in MLB, per Statcast).
Jack Flaherty (RHP, 1,079 IP)
He missed a month and a half with right flexor inflammation and had just one appearance after July 20th (2 innings on the final day of the regular season). That might be enough of a red flag, but again, if we’re just looking for 100 good innings, then Flaherty might be able to provide them — but he doesn’t fit the profile of a pitcher looking for a 1-year pillow deal and I think the Giants might not be inclined to go multiple years with any free agent starter this offseason.
Brady Singer (RHP, 1,012 IP)
I remember foolishly seeing the next Matt Cain in Singer and instead he wound up the least valuable starting pitcher in MLB this season not named Merrill Kelly. Right behind him? Tomoyuki Sugano and Robbie Ray. The only real value here might be cost. If they could fix one of his fastballs (sinker, four-seamer, cutter) then it’d be a great pairing with his higher whiff slider (30.7 Whiff%) or sweeper (40.9 Whiff%). So, maybe a project, but far from a sure thing. After a terrible development-at-the-major-league-level year, maybe they should be looking for more certainty.
The rest
Brandon Woodruff (RHP, 2-2, 2.98 ERA, 45.1 IP, +1.2 fWAR)
Pitchers, man. Remember when the Brewers had that two-headed monster of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff? Burnes missed most of the past two seasons recovering from Tommy John. Meanwhile, here’s Woodruff’s injury log since 2023:
- April 2023 — right shoulder inflammation (transferred to 60-day IL in May)
- February 2024 — right shoulder surgery
- March 2025 — surgery recovery
- made no MLB appearances during this span
- June 2025 — continued surgery recovery
- September 2025 — right lat strain
- May 2026 — right shoulder inflammation (transferred to 60-day IL in July)
There’s a chance he starts a game or appears in the upcoming World Series, but as a free agent target he seems like a very high risk, low-reward fella. I’m including him here because people might not have seen him in so long that they might still imagine he’s as good as his heyday of 2019-2022 or that with the right coaching and ballpark he can be really effective for 100 innings. Doubtful on all accounts, but he’s not so bad that I have to dismiss him.
Foster Griffin (LHP, 15-6, 3.60 ERA, 172.2 IP, +2.6 fWAR)
He’s belle of the ball #2 in that the teams that have no chance/won’t even bother with Tarik Skubal will be gunning for either Peralta or Griffin. He’s another starter who reinvented himself overseas and wound up being a better investment than either of the other two headliners returning from NPB: Cody Ponce and Anthony Kay. And, like, Peralta, since he was traded mid-season, there’s no Qualifying Offer attached to him (assuming that system remains intact in the next CBA). He features seven pitches and is, essentially, a soft-tossing lefty. He would be a nice change of pace from the sinker-slider starters the Giants have been running out there. But Griffin will probably want a multi-year deal, which takes him out of the running, I’d think.
Shane Bieber (5-2, 4.37 ERA, 55.2 IP, +0.1 fWAR)
His season ended because of a right teres major inflammation, which is a risk, but he seems like a Tyler Mahle-type the Giants could target for 100 good innings. Cleveland traded him to Toronto at the 2025 deadline as he was just getting his season underway following Tommy John surgery, but he’s been mostly hurt the past three seasons: a 3.58 ERA (good!) with a 4.33 FIP (ehhh) in 108 IP across 20 starts (whoa! Bad!). In other words, he hasn’t had 100 good innings in four calendar years.
Trevor Rogers (LHP, 10-11, 4.03 ERA, 169.2 IP, +4.0 fWAR)
A 29-year old with fewer than 700 MLB innings who’s left-handed and put up 4 WAR this most recent season is likely to command a multi-year, high AAV deal, which should take him off the Giants’ radar.
Jordan Montgomery (LHP, 1-0, 4.15 ERA, 26 IP, +0.1 fWAR)
He finally returned from Tommy John but only pitched out of the bullpen. He still wants to be a starting pitcher, but if you remember the saga of his free agency following the Rangers’ World Series win, one thing that became clear was that geography was a concern to him. Most MLBers don’t seem interested in the Bay Area, either, so, maybe this just isn’t a good fit for both need and interest.
José Urquidy (RHP, 2-2, 4.95 ERA, 36.1 IP, +0.5 fWAR)
He pitched for three teams in 2026, but prior to that, he’s had a heap of arm and shoulder issues. Since 2021, four trips to the IL with forearm or shoulder problems, two of those converting to 60-day stints. He has a really good sweeper, though, so you could imagine why teams continue to have interest. But as a starter who might be able to give the team 100 quality MLB innings? Not sure about that.
Walker Buehler (RHP 9-6, 4.63 ERA, 153.2 IP, +1.5 fWAR)
Signed to a minor league deal/Spring Training invite because the Padres were out of money but out of starting pitchers, Buehler wound up being the one to stick. He didn’t exactly return to his pre-Tommy John Dodgers form (3.02 ERA in 638.1 IP, 15.2 fWAR, 9.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), but he was a major league caliber starting pitcher.
On the other hand, he’s already had two Tommy John surgeries in his career, and his nice season ultimately took a turn for the worse. Through June: 3.81 ERA (3.42 FIP) in 78 IP (16 GS). The rest of the way (16 GS): 5.47 ERA (5.63 FIP).
Cal Quantrill (RHP, 9-5, 2.86 ERA, 110 IP, +1.5 fWAR)
Quantrill was signed to a minor league deal by the Rangers in the offseason and he went from a reliable relief presence to a top 3 starter in the rotation. His season ended on the IL, but not before he ranked as having one of the best fastballs in the sport, per Statcast. We’ve got a bit of a Mahle situation here, too, where his highest whiff rates are on a fastball-splitter combo. He won’t be looking for a long-term deal, necessarily, but a decent 1-year deal seems plausible. He also went to Stanford so, uh, why would he be against a return? It’s the 100 quality innings that seems tricky. A lat injury is what ended his season.
Aaron Civale (RHP 6-8, 4.20 ERA, 111.1 IP, +0.8 fWAR)
He’s been a recent SABR darling — a 4.7 fWAR in 380.1 IP across 2022-2024 — but recently, his decline has pushed him closer to being replacement-level. In particular, his strikeout rate has declined a lot (8.6 K/9 during that heyday, 7.6 K/9 the past two season). But if you look at the pedigree of the teams that have had him — Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, the two Chicago teams, and the Athletics — there’s a computer-y bent that suggests his profile has some meaningful value in a large performance model. Indeed, he was quite a bit better once he moved out of West Sac (5.37 ERA in 67 IP as a starter) and in with the Cubs who used him as a multi-inning reliever. A Houser-Civale back of the rotation with some of the younger pitchers to survive the upcoming roster purge serving as piggybacks or openers might be a path forward for 2027 until some of the other development elements come into focus.
Patrick Sandoval (LHP 1-7, 5.12 ERA, 70.1 IP, +1.3 fWAR)
Although he didn’t wind up on Boston’s NLDS roster, he looked pretty okay after returning from Tommy John surgery. He had that in June 2024 and endured a long recovery and rehab, which was a bummer for Boston which had signed him to a 2-year deal so he could rehab and return with them. He is primarily a changeup guy, throwing it 28+% of the time and getting around 39% Whiff on it. His fastball runs 93-94. Boston did move him to the bullpen at the end of September, but that had more to do with them making sure they got into the postseason. He doesn’t allow homers, strikes guys out, and has the right pitch mix for the era (as Roger notes in the podcast referenced above, the Giants have gone all in on fastball-changeup types). He seems like the perfect short-term deal to add to a rotation. On the other hand… maybe the competition will be fierce, compelling our puppy dog Giants to tuck tail and whimper away.
Of course, the Giants shouldn’t consider Skubal because they’ll have to spend $500 million on him. But will they spend, say $100 million to land 2-3 more meaningful arms? Even if you forget Skubal, Freddy Peralta, Foster Griffin, and Trevor Rogers (and you should), there are some good options in this group if the Giants are looking for 1-2 guys to provide at least 100 quality innings. And we haven’t even gotten to players with opt-outs or options or those who could be available via trade. Just from this article:
- Kevin Gausman
- Jack Flaherty
- Cal Quantrill
- Patrick Sandoval
But what do you think? None of these are worth the team’s time or do they have a better shot at any of the four I think they have no shot at?
