Australia’s relationship with the NBA has been a passionate and long-standing one, and its own domestic league, the NBL, has an enormous following. The NBL has contributed to the NBA Draft across the decades, but ever since LaMelo Ball plied his trade as an emerging guard with the Illawarra Hawks as part of the 2020 NBA Draft class, there has been an increase in not only prospects who have attempted to replicate a similar path but young players who have emerged within the NBL.
Draft selections from
the NBL in recent years include Ball, Alex Sarr, Rayan Rupert, Bobi Klintman, and AJ Johnson to name a few prospects in the last few years. Varying levels of talent and NBA-sticking power in that small collection of names, but what is certain is that the NBL has been more recently solidified as an absolutely viable entry route for the NBA.
19-year-old Mexican forward Karim Lopez will be the latest NBL prospect hoping to hear his name called on NBA Draft Day. A 6 foot 9 forward for the New Zealand Breakers, Lopez averaged 11.9 points per game on 49.4% shooting on 8.9 field goal attempts, 32% from three in three attempts per game, 73.9% from the line on 2.9 free throw attempts, six rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals, and one block in an average of 25 minutes per game in 30 games played, per RealGM.
Considering that Lopez just turned 19 in April (his last game of the season taking place in February, meaning he did all that we’re about to see in a professional league at 18 years old), these are productive numbers from Lopez. Let’s take a look at the film and see what’s what with Karim Lopez, who wears the number one.
Offense/scoring
Lopez’s best work offensively comes on the move, on drives, in the paint. He’s very efficient there, and considering he shoots 49% from the field despite shooting 32% from three suggests that he is more efficient than his percentage indicates. I think the most impressive aspect of Lopez’s offensive game is his poise; many players at this age play with one speed, often too quick than they are capable of.
Lopez plays a little slower, but he also plays as if the game has already slowed down for him. In the NBA, you can see when a player has matured and plays with poise. Jalen Johnson is a great example: his offensive game comes a lot more naturally to him now, and while he could — and can — go above players and finish with authority, more often than not in the half-court, he’s more patient now, and you see it as it happens. Lopez, similarly, plays with a poise beyond his years, and you’ll see that as we look at his scoring inside the arc.
Grabbing a rebound off of a miss, Lopez takes the ball up the floor at a leisurely pace, uses the screen, drives inside, creates contact, and finishes at the rim despite a late change of hands from right-to-left and back to right again:
Lopez loves to initiate contact; you’re just going to see it consistently as we move through these clips.
Lopez is able to utilize hesitation dribbles/drives to great effect, which he uses to a smaller degree on this play before being quite aggressive in creating contact, not once but twice, and while he carves out space against his own defender, the help arrives to contest Lopez, who is still able to hit and draw a foul for the ‘and-1’:
On the perimeter, Lopez sizes up his man, and he uses his combination of hesitation and stutter-steps before driving, finding the space and finishes at the rim:
Coming off of the pick-and-roll, Lopez is really good at controlling his pace, hesitating before accelerating, creating contact and finishing in the lane:
Coming off of a pin-down, Lopez receives the ball heading to the paint and uses his physicality to clear out space from the defender and hits the runner over the defense:
Lopez can demonstrate good patience, and again, he plays at his own speed and doesn’t really allow others to speed him up. On the catch inside the paint, he waits for the defense to commit, before laying the ball in from close-range:
Lopez can be described as a crafty player, picking up the loose ball here on this play, spins, swivels and ducks back to his left and lifts the left-handed layup for the basket:
Some of these swivels really look like travels at times, Lopez is certainly able to use his footwork to get himself into advantageous situation, as he does on this play where he swivels — probably gets away with a travel — before dunking at the rim:
Other methods that can see Lopez score efficiently inside can include offensive rebounds (of which he secured two a game):
Catches in the paint/post where he can finish over defenders:
This play was a particularly heads up play; Lopez recognizing when he has the defender at his back and able to establish superior position inside for an entry pass.
On the catch inside the paint, Lopez bangs, and hits the shot over the defender in the lane:
Lopez also has underrated athletic abilities in his arsenal, and he can certainly use this to punish defenses in transition when he runs the floor:
Lopez can also provide an option close to the rim on an out-of-bounds scenario:
Lopez was excellent at not just initiating contact but as we’ve looked at so far he’s been able to finish plays where he’s fouled, and he’s able to get himself consistently to the free throw line.
On the drive from the corner, Lopez hesitates before driving, getting away with a hook in the process, and draws the foul and free throws:
Coming off of a screen this time, hesitates before shifting gears to get to the baseline under the rim where he draws the contact on the layup attempt and is sent to the free throw line:
After intercepting the lob attempt, Lopez brings the ball up the floor, recovers on the stumble and rises into an attempt at the rim, drawing contact and free throws:
This next play highlights Lopez’s activity off the ball; a mix of a cut, attempting to establish post-position, and finally retreating to three-point line, where he receives the ball and drives, splitting the defenders and drawing a foul:
Lopez can also draw fouls and free throws on the offensive glass:
Lopez also does well to draw fouls in the post, as he establishes deep position inside against former Hawk John Jenkins, before bumping and creating contact, drawing a foul and more free throws:
Again, Lopez gets into the paint and gets his man at his back in the post, and when he receives the entry pass he swings and rises, initiating the contact and drawing the foul and free throws:
On this action, Lopez ends up almost using a little slip into the defender into an opportunity to back him further down into the paint before receiving the ball, where Lopez drifts inside for a shot attempt, drawing contact and free throws:
The only major criticism I have of Lopez’s game is a lack of consistency with his three-point shot right now, but 32% is certainly workable at just 19 years old. Let’s take a look at a couple of makes and misses just for reference.
Here, Lopez hits a deep catch-and-shoot three above the break:
Coming off of the pin-down, Lopez gets a look at an open three and he sinks a deep three:
In transition, Lopez receives the outlet pass before jab-stepping and stepping back, and rising into the three-pointer:
On the catch on the wing, Lopez misses the catch-and-shoot three-pointer:
In the corner, Lopez takes a few exploratory jab-steps before rising into a missed three:
On a give-and-get back possession with his teammate — followed by a screen to free up space — Lopez misses a three above the break:
Passing/playmaking
Lopez has some playmaking ability as part of his game too, averaging 1.9 assists per game. These arrived in a few differing scenarios, let’s take a look at them.
In the pick-and-roll, Lopez loops a pass over the top of the defense for the assist on the roll:
On the slipped-screen this time, Lopez delivers another pass over the defense for another assist at the rim:
This theme of Lopez being able to pass over the defense continues, this time in transition as he delivers a satisfying touch pass for a shot opportunity which is blocked:
When a teammate cuts to the rim, Lopez delivers another pass over the defense for another assist:
Operating in the pick-and-roll, Lopez comes off the screen and drives into the paint before kicking to the corner for the three-point attempt:
A dribble so slow that it looks like a carry.
In another pick-and-roll, Lopez finds the shooter away from the screen for a three-point attempt. When this is missed, Lopez grabs the offensive rebound and kicks out to the three-point line for an assist on the three:
Defense
Lopez’s defensive stats certainly suggest that he is a hive of activity capable of mixing it up in both steals and blocks, averaging 1.1 steals and one block per game.
Near the end of the shotclock — and with the dribble of the offensive player spent — a fadeaway attempt is blocked by Lopez, who has the reach to block the fadeaway:
After the spin move appears to free up on the offensive player, Lopez is able to recover to block the shot at the rim:
This time as the help defender, Lopez rotates to contest and block the shot at the rim:
Again as the help defender, Lopez rotates and blocks the shot from behind at the rim:
At the end of a third quarter, Lopez sprints over from the weakside to block another shot at the rim:
Initially, Lopez is beaten on the drive but is in place to collect the steal on the alley-oop:
As the help defender on the drive, Lopez reaches in down low and he knocks the ball away for the steal:
On an out-of-bounds play, Lopez is able to reach down low to disrupt the inbounds pass and collect the steal:
Looking outside of blocks and steals, Lopez can offer some good defensive moments.
On this possession, he does well to prevent penetration after initially looking as though he was beaten, and demonstrates some good defensive activity which prompts a pass elsewhere:
However, I didn’t always enjoy some of Lopez’s defensive work, which I think can be inconsistent.
On the drive from the three-point line, the defensive effort from Lopez is poor and the basket is scored:
In transition, Lopez trails the play, and while it’s understandable when he’s run off the three-point line, he falls for a fake at the free throw line, and it leads to a more open shot, which he is fortunate is missed:
Lopez can be quite foul prone, averaging just under three fouls a game with a five foul limit.
On this play, Lopez commits to the steal attempt, and in trying to get back in front of the play he commits the foul on the drive:
On this play, Lopez picks up the drive from half-court, doesn’t keep his man in front of him, and ends up committing the foul at the rim on the block attempt as the basket is scored:
When the catch inside is made, Lopez initially maintains his verticality but is called for the bump as the basket is scored at the rim, plus the foul:
On the beginning of a drive attempt, Lopez is called for the foul as he cannot keep his man in front:
In closing…
Karim Lopez is a player who is offensively mature beyond his age. He plays as though the game has already slowed down, almost like an old-man game; very few things are going to rush Lopez offensively. He has his own rhythm offensively and he utilizes his drives/dribbles/stutter-steps really well to get inside as frequently as he does despite not having an elite burst.
What speed he does have, Lopez does a good job of shifting gears. Now, this isn’t a massive third gear to top gear kind of shift. Lopez is really effective in the third to fourth gear shift, if that makes sense. It’s not fast, but Lopez is able to make this small shift in pace work to his advantage to work an opening on a drive. He just has a really good feel for the game offensively and plays with a maturity and pace you just don’t see in 18-year-olds (he was 18 for the entirety of this last season). To add to this young age, Lopez is an underrated athlete on the court — he doesn’t jump out the gym, but you see the moments where he can certainly rise high, and he posted very impressive figures at the NBA Draft Combine (which we’ll touch on soon).
Elsewhere, Lopez is comfortable working from the post or in entry-pass scenarios where he’s able to do a good job finishing over defenses. Lopez is a crafty offensive player, and has this knack for getting away with hooks, travels, and drawing free throws. He’s crafty, and he’s able to create his own offense and his own shots, and that should hold some value. However, the three-point shooting isn’t quite there yet, but having just turned 19 years, old age is on Lopez’s side — there’s plenty of time to further develop Lopez’s already refined and efficient offensive game. There is also playmaking potential to expand on with Lopez too, particularly in the pick-and-roll — nothing elite, but enough that he can create off the bounce and spot a pass or make connecting plays that may not lead to assists but would be considered secondary assists.
Defensively, there’s no doubt that Lopez can make plays. He has this knack of contributing multiple blocks and steals in a game, particularly blocking shots which he can do in one-on-one situations and as a help defender. He has great physical tools, measuring at 6 foot 8.75 inches without shoes, and a wingspan of 6 foot 11 inches, all to go along with a 38-inch vertical jump at the NBA Draft Combine. However, Lopez’s defensive effort can be inconsistent, and he can struggle to stay in front of his man, and he can be quite foul prone on these drives, or on block attempts.
Overall, there’s a lot to like when it comes to Lopez. His offensive skillset partnered with his physical tools and his age means that there’s high upside here, especially if the shooting comes along. Now, with all that said, let’s look at how other outlets view Lopez’s stock ahead of the draft.
ESPN rank Lopez 13th overall among their ‘Best Available’, and Jeremy Woo, similarly, mocks Lopez at 13th overall with this to add on Lopez as a prospect:
Lopez is drawing interest from a number of teams in the lottery, including the Clippers, Nets, Bucks and Warriors, with rival teams viewing him as more of a trade-back candidate later on in the case of the Clippers and Nets.
He was helped by his combine measurements, affirming his size to play both forward positions capably and massive hands. He continues to improve and has positioned himself as an intriguing development bet coming off a strong second season in the NBL
Many teams are intrigued by Lopez’s mix of size, skill and toughness but want to see him improve as a shooter and get a better sense of how well he can create offense for himself. These are things he can display in workouts as he gets in front of teams in the coming weeks to help firm up his position.
A playoff team in need of retooling would benefit from the maturity Lopez brings, but would they have the patience needed to play him in order him to develop? Woo notes that the combine has helped Lopez’s draft stock, which is worth noting as his posted well physically at the combine.
The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie mocks Lopez 20th overall with this to say of Lopez:
Lopez’s numbers look in line with past lottery picks coming out of Australia’s NBL Next Stars program, as he’s averaging 12 points, six rebounds, two assists, a steal and a block per game. He has excellent hands, is very skilled with the ball and often operates as essentially a mismatch hybrid forward for the Breakers. He’s a physical bowling ball who can play in screens and short rolls. He can attack in a straight line from the perimeter, and he is a solid finisher.
The 3-point shooting has been up and down in his two years in New Zealand (32 percent), but he looks to have good touch and should work through any concerns there at some point. The bigger questions come on defense, as his lateral speed isn’t particularly good. He doesn’t have much shake on the ball offensively; on defense, his hips don’t flip quickly enough, and he can be beaten by faster guards. If he improves in those two areas as he ages, he’ll be an excellent rotation player.
Kevin O’Connor of Yahoo Sports mocks Lopez as high as 12th overall, outlining Lopez’s strengths and weaknesses:
STRENGTHS
Physical tools: López is already built like a veteran at 6-foot-8 and 222 pounds with a 7-foot wingspan. He isn’t a twitchy athlete and he doesn’t sky over opponents, but his broad shoulders and functional strength let him hold his ground against grown men in a professional league as a teenager.
Interior finishing: López is a bowling ball on his drives to the basket. He bodies opponents with his shoulder and invites contact once he elevates. He draws a ton of fouls as well. But there’s a finesse to him as well with the way he can extend his arm and hand for touch finishes from unusual angles.
Role player skills: He runs the floor on the break, he cuts, he screens, he does all the little things you want from a non-star. He’s a super aware cutter who’s always looking for cracks in the defense. He’ll bully smaller defenders under the rim as well to make himself available for finishes in the paint. Even if a simple layup or dunk isn’t available, he has the skill to hit some turnaround jumpers while fading away. With his ability to handle, he could ideally be paired with a perimeter-shooting guard that can free up López to eat on short rolls to the basket.
Connective playmaking: He’s not a primary initiator, but he can keep an offense flowing by making smart reads out of pick-and-rolls, handoffs, and short roll situations. He has a flair to his game. He’ll toss wrap-around passes when a big man commits to him to find cutters, he’ll throw bullseye lobs to cutting bigs, and he rewards guys who run the floor when he brings it up himself.
Defense: With his size, length, and strength, López has the traits to become a highly versatile defender who can switch across positions and make an impact as a help defender. He slides his feet well on-ball, whether defending players at his size or quicker guards. And off-ball, when he’s locked in, he’s a useful weakside rim protector who can fly in for blocks.
Just to chime in at this point of O’Connor’s assessment, there appears to be a consensus that Lopez is more likely to carve out a role on the fringes than as a starter. I would push-back somewhat on Lopez’s effectiveness as an on-ball defender, but would agree that he is impactful as a help shot-blocker. The rest of Lopez’s strengths we’ve examined previously. Let’s continue:
CONCERNS
Shooting: López made 33% of his catch-and-shoot 3s and 73% of his free throws in two NBL seasons, which isn’t a disaster, but he hasn’t shown an ability to be a knockdown shooter yet. He rarely takes 3s off movement. But his shooting has progressed. He was closer to a non-shooter when he was younger, and he went from having zero bag off the dribble to hitting six dribble-jumper 3s this past year. With his soft touch near the rim, he might just need time and the right coaching to unlock a reliable jump shot.
Shot creation: Most of his unassisted shots come as a result of bumping off defenders and using pump fakes to generate space. He doesn’t have a quick first step or burst in the lane, and he doesn’t have a dynamic handle either. He rarely ever uses his left hand when finishing at the rim. It doesn’t impact his ability to score in the NBL, but certainly could in the NBA. His handle is also notably looser with his left than his dominant right hand. Against NBA athletes, that physicality might be more neutralized than it has been at lower levels.
Off-ball defense: He gets a bit spacey when defending away from the ball. He’ll be late on rotations. Sometimes it seems like his effort comes and goes, which can’t happen for a player that projects as more of a role player than a superstar.
I’d argue that it is a testament to Lopez’s offensive skill that he can be efficient and effective despite not having an elite first step or burst; he makes it work for his game. It is a fair concern that things would look very different against NBA athletes, and it’s fair to take that into account in assessing Lopez as an NBA prospect.
Kyle Mann of The Ringer is significantly lower on Lopez than we’ve seen so far, projecting Lopez 28th overall with this to add:
I’ve had more of a “pumped brakes” mentality when it comes to López, because I think where he lands will be really important. The ability to pinpoint useful skills and maximize them is an advantage that some organizations have and some don’t. We’ve seen what Boston has done with Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, and Sam Hauser, and I think that López—a power wing whose rim pressure makes him an intriguing prospect—would similarly benefit from the time and structure that the Celtics could give him. If they tidied up the details surrounding his downhill strength and helped his percentage from 3 climb a few points, López could become an asset.
I completely agree that ‘where’ Lopez is selected is really important. Were he to land on a playoff team with a G League affiliation, it could prove a great selection and infusion of talent in a few years. Lopez would likely be too high for the Hawks to consider at eight, but in a trade-back situation, Lopez could be helpful off the bench. Karim Lopez is an intriguing prospect whose ceiling I think can be a productive starter, a solid rotation player off the bench in a less than ideal scenario.
Time will soon tell…
