The ceiling for Alabama is as high as anyone in the SEC

It might be hard to fathom this but most people will consider last season a disappointment for Alabama. In the context of ‘Only March Matters’ it was a step back from the heights the Crimson Tide achieved

in 2024. No matter how many times you shout about the tournament being a crap shoot, Alabama did not make the Final Four one year after making their first Final Four in team history, thus a disappointment.

But the season overall was a huge success. Going into the season Alabama was the favorite to win the conference, and they fell short of that. Mostly due to the fact that the rest of the league was brutal, and rival Auburn took the top spot while Florida captured the National title.

Alabama’s season was upended with an Elite 8 loss to Duke, but it shouldn’t be overlooked that Alabama had their second best statistical season ever, and yes they were even better than the year before when they went to the Final Four. They were better offensively, defensively, all around. Losing 9 games might sting, but they lost to a lot of good teams! The worst team they lost to was Oregon, who finished 27th in KenPom. They also lost to Purdue (15th) on the road, Missouri (19th) on the road), and Ole Miss (22nd) at home. Otherwise their losses were to all top 5 teams: Auburn, Duke, Tennessee, Florida.

Yes, it was a great season for Alabama. If anything it speaks to how hard it is to make it to the Final Four.

Other SEC Previews:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Last season: 28 – 9 (13-5 in conference) #6 overall
The Masses Prediction: 2nd in conference, 12.86 – 5.14
SEC Media Pick: 4th in conference
Analytics Average: 4th in conference, 16th overall

HEAD COACH: Nate Oats | 7th Season, 145-63

When Nate Oats took over in Tuscaloosa, fans were used to a middling level of competence. Tide Hoops was really pretty good in the 1980s, and again in the early 2000s. But Anthony Grant and Avery Johnson were not able to consistently get Alabama to the NCAA Tournament during a time when SEC basketball was an afterthought. Meanwhile Nick Saban was wrecking shop on the football side so it kept the heat off those guys, but eventually the program needed a big change.

There are much loftier expectations in T-town these days and that is nearly all because Oats has raised the bar. After a bumpy first season, Alabama has now made 5 straight NCAA Tournaments with the lowest seed being a 6. In four of the last five years, they have finished in the top 10 of the AP Poll, and in three of those seasons finished top 10 in KenPom. Oats record in SEC conference play is 67-23, or an average of 13.5 wins per year.

For all the issues he’s missed with off the court, Oats has Alabama running at an elite level for at least a half of a decade. Offensively they play fast and get up a lot of shots. Defensively they sit in gaps and protect the rim. The only question is if Tuscaloosa is Oats last stop in his coaching tenure. There will be other jobs to come open in the near future, programs with existing hall of fame coaches calling it a career or historically great programs looking for some new blood. Will Oats look at those jobs? Or even look at the NBA? That wouldn’t surprise me in the least. For now, he’s got Alabama humming.

Pre-Nate Oats things were just in a flatline. Perfectly mediocre. Alabama never had a problem recruiting and landed good talent, but Oats changed turning that into more wins. As Alabama has elevated so has the rest of the SEC, which has made winning so many games a bit more difficult. But Bama’s KenPom rating has flatlined in a much better direction.

LOST PRODUCTION

8th in % minutes, 69.61% | 5th in % points, 68.76% | 5th in % possessions, 69.21% | 3rd

It’s going to look a little different for the Tide without Mark Sears on the floor for the first time in three years. Sears became the driver for the Alabama offense each of the past two seasons after playing more of a role in his first season. Sears averaged 12.5 points in his first year, then jumped to 21.5 as a Senior and 18.6 as a Super Senior last year. He was far and away the leader of the program, and replacing not just the production but the floor presence won’t be easy.

Grant Nelson also moved on, along with Jarin Stevenson, Mouhamed Dioubate, and Derrion Reid. Each of those players were multiple year rotational guys or a former 5-star recruit in the case of Reid. But in all seven of the top 9 in the rotation are gone, which includes one year rentals Cliff Omoruyi and Chris Youngblood. Alabama is going to have a whole new look, without looking all that different.

Nate Oats received a giant gift when Labaron Philon opted to return to College after really testing the NBA Draft waters. Philon was even quoted in the press as being locked into the draft until he withdrew just hours before the deadline, ultimately taking (likely) a payday to be the star for the Crimson Tide this season.

Philon is a rangy and lanky 6’4 lead guard who chipped in 10.6 points per game in 37 games, including 29 starts. That production came in just 24.7 minutes per game while deferring much of the offensive possessions to Sears. On a per 40 basis Philon was the third most productive offensive player for the Tide behind Sears and Nelson, so becoming the primary option should be obvious for what’s left with the rest of the roster.

Aden Holloway was great as a floor spacer and reliable ball handler, but he’s not a shot creator. He will occaisionally run the pick and roll, when he does he’s looking to create space for a three or drive for a kick out for a three. He took twice as many threes as he did twos last year, expect more of the same. It remains to be seen what, if anything, Alabama will get from Latrell Wrightsell who missed all of last season with an achilles injury is expected to be ready for opening day. If healthy Wrightsell is an excellent hyper efficient, low-usage guard.

The recruiting class is good, but not great. There’s no sure fire freshmen who’s a lock to be high in the rotation, but there’s quality there which should help them next season.

The transfer portal is a mixed bag, depending on what happens with Jalil Bethea, a former 5-star wing who flatlined on a terrible Miami team last year. Both Taylor Bol Bowen and Noah Williamson should help in the front court.

As usual, Alabama is starting with a lot of quality depth. But despite the routine depth, Oats rarely plays past 9 consistently, at least when the games are tighter.

Philon was a starter last year, and Wrightsell started 5 of the 8 games he played in before getting hurt. Holloway played last season off the bench, but he played more than 50% of the minutes and was incredibly efficient when on the floor. A healthy Wrightsell, Philon and Holloway are likely to get the bulk of the ball handling duties. Maybe freshman Davion Hannah can factor in as well, but it will be hard to keep Philon and Holloway off the floor.

There’s a bit of a question on where things in the front court end up, but betting on a second year jump from the talented Aiden Sherrell over Noah Williamson feels safe. Bol Bowen’s versatility should help him get on the floor a lot. And Keitenn Bristow is making a big jump from the WAC where he was one of the top freshmen in the conference, but you never know how a guy will fit in.

On the wing things are interesting because of what could be potentially with Bethea. Houston Mallette was projected to be in the rotation last year before getting hurt. London Jamison was the highest rated incoming freshmen as a bigger wing and could see some early action as well.

Alabama has a lot of long and bouncy athletes, but there’s a lot less certainty on their roster than recent years past.

Credit Nate Oats for his scheduling, frankly it would be nice if more coaches scheduled as aggressively as he does. Schedule more games that won’t affect whether or not you make the tournament, just where you’re seeded. One warm up against North Dakota, and then four top 15 games. UNLV is the second game in the Players Era tournament, and Bama will get one more but the opponent is unknown. If they beat both Gonzaga and UNLV it’s likely to be another Quad 1 game as Kansas, Maryland, Creighton, Oregon, Houston and Syracuse are all lined up to play.

And if five guaranteed Q1 games wasn’t enough, Alabama will get 15 of their 18 conference games in Q1 as well (projected of course). There are no breaks.

THE RULING

With fewer knowns outside of Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway, betting on Alabama is betting on Nate Oats to figure it out.

That bet has been safe in four of the last five years.

For the Tide, the easy thing for them is the offense. They step on the floor and are already 8 points up just with how fast they play and how many field goals they attempt. And not just the attempts, but the type of shots also. With Alabama it’s nearly all shots at the rim and threes. Last year was the lowest of the Oats era when Alabama finished just 35th in 3-point field goal attempts as a percentage of their overall field goal attempts. But it didn’t harm their effectiveness as they still finished 10th in eFG%, and 4th in overall offense.

Yes expect Alabama to score.

The key for them has and will always be the defensive side. When Alabama guards, they’re elite. In 2021 they fielded the 3rd best offense by efficiency and finished 16-2 in the league. The next year it was 92nd and they finished 9-9. Back to 3rd in 2023 and again they went 16-2. Last year the defense was good, but far from great. Some of the concessions on defense involved playing smaller with guards like Holloway and Sears. Philon as a freshman was athletic but pretty wiry and not a good defender. Alabama made up for it by having elite rim protection.

With another year in the weight room, Philon’s defense should be improved. He’s added weight and should stand up for at the point of attack. Holloway’s size is what it is, but he can be better also. Oats pack line style doesn’t ask much of them most of the time, but it will ask the wings and front court to be more stout.

This projection feels like the floor. Philon should play like a lottery pick, Holloway should be solid, the front court at least should be not bad. But where the ceiling takes off is with Bethea, or perhaps another wing stepping up and being elite. If Bethea hits on his development and turns into the player most thought he would be last year, Alabama will again contend for the top of the league.

My Results: Alabama Crimson Tide — 5th in Conference, 10-8

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.