The Commanders approached the 2025 season with high expectations, raised by the team’s unprecedented championship round playoff finish in the first year of a total franchise reset. It is fair to say that
the team’s performance through Week 8 has been disappointing.
The team opened the season with a sloppy win over the New York Giants, marred by mistakes and penalties, with a lackluster performance by star QB Jayden Daniels. Things started to go seriously sideways with a rash of injuries in the Week 2 game against the Packers, including season-ending injuries to starting DE Deatrich Wise and RB Austin Ekeler, and a knee injury that kept Daniels sidelined for two weeks.
In the following weeks, the injury toll continued to mount with starting S Will Harris, WRs Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, and Deebo Samuel, and promising second-year DE Javontae Jean-Baptiste all missing time or out for the season. Dorance Armstrong’s season-ending injury in last week’s loss to the Cowboys stretched the team’s depth at DE to the breaking point, with few viable replacements on the roster. The roster depth was stretched even further on Monday Night when LT Laremy Tunsil left the game with a hamstring injury.
The depletion of the starting roster by injuries has coincided with rising concerns about apparent lack of preparation, poor discipline and play calling. Fans are becoming increasingly concerned that the season could spiral out of control. Personally, I don’t think we are quite there yet. But the window to turn things around is rapidly narrowing.
I remain hopeful that Dan Quinn can right the ship when Jayden Daniels returns from his most recent hamstring injury. But I have to admit my confidence took a hit when what looked like successful adjustments in the first half on Monday Night gave way to more mistakes and missed opportunities when play resumed after the break. And if there are any more serious injuries to key players, we may soon reach a point where there’s not much the coaches can do.
The Commanders missing the playoffs would be a bitter pill to swallow, following last season’s overperformance. However, some good could come from it in the long term. The silver lining to the cloud of a disappointing regular season is, of course, improved draft position.
While I am not ready to throw in the towel on the 2025 season just yet, I thought this might be a good time to ask what it could mean for the long-term rebuilding project if the Commanders did fail to return to the playoffs this year.
If the Season Ended Today
According to Tankathon, if the season ended today, the Commanders would pick 11th in the draft order. There are six teams who only have three wins, but all the NFC teams have less losses. Washington has the same record as the Bengals and Ravens, but their higher strength of schedule gives them the 11th pick instead of the 9th or 10th.
An 11th place finish would represent an 18-place improvement over last year’s draft position. This is important, because there is a steep drop-off in success rate in the first round of the draft. While there are no guarantees at any point in the draft, historically, players picked in the first half of the first round have the greatest chance of becoming impact starters. It is possible to pick a future hall of famer at any point in the draft and post-draft free agency, but the probability of doing so falls steeply from the first overall pick, and hits an inflection point around the 16th pick, after which the decay curve becomes shallower.
Failing to make the playoffs could therefore move the Commanders into the upper echelon of first round draft picks, as well as improving their position in each round where they have their original pick, thereafter.
Certain “franchise” positions are highly sought in the draft, resulting in the top prospects coming off the board early. The Commanders had to pick from second tier options at OT with their first pick in the last draft. Just a little bit of tanking this season, intentionally or otherwise, could give them access to elite prospects at premium positions.
The Commanders do not need a first round QB this year, and might seem to be set for OTs. The usual runs on those positions, in what is shaping up to be a deep QB class and a reasonably strong OT class, is likely to push high-end prospects at other premium positions down the board toward the Commanders’ pick.
That could be great news for a team with a pressing need for an edge defender with ability to impact the passing and running games. They could also benefit from the addition of an elite talent at CB, DT or S. And it’s always possible that GM Adam Peters might have a player at the top of his board who doesn’t align with what fans feel is the team’s top need or analysts consider to be the highest position value.
The Spoils of Tanking
So, in the spirit of hoping for the best while preparing for the worst, here are some draft prospects who could become available to the Commanders if our playoff dreams do not materialize, but are likely to be off the board if they do, based on current projections. Draft prospect rankings, were gleaned from the Mock Draft Database Consensus Big Board.
4-3 Defensive Ends
Rueben Bain Jr., Junior, Miami (FL)
6’3” | 275 lbs | Age 21
2025 Key Stats: 7 games | 2 sacks | 39 pressures | 17.8% Pressure Rate | 3.5 TFL | 20 stops | 1 FF | 1 INT | 1 PD
Consensus Rank: 2
Bain is a thickly-built power rusher, with good quickness and impressive movement skills. He excels at collapsing the pocket with a bull rush and has great change of direction skills for a power rusher. He is strong at the point of attack, with the ability to set the edge against OTs and strength to get off blocks to stop the run in the backfield. He could be the impact player the Commanders need in both phases on defense.
Bain is currently projected to be a top 5 pick. But it’s possible that a few QBs getting picked near the top of the draft and an early run OTs, combined with concerns about his lack of ideal length, could potentially push him out of the top 10. Realistically, he only comes into play if the Commanders’ season falls off the cliff.
Keldric Faulk, Junior, Auburn
6’6” | 285 lbs | Age 20
2025 Key Stats: 8 games | 2 sacks | 23 pressures | 10.6% Pressure Rate | 4 TFL | 14 stops | 1 FF | 3 PD
Consensus Rank: 9
Faulk has the length, athleticism, power and aggression to get defensive coordinators excited. At just 20 years old, he is already an elite run defender, with strength to set the edge and get off blocks to make plays behind the line.
He is still developing as a pass rusher, with flashes potential in that phase as well. During the 2025 offseason, he sought out, and worked with, elite pass rushers to hone his craft, including Von Miller. That should give the Commanders an inside track on scouting him.
Faulk has versatility to play on the edge or interior. While some teams might view him as a tweener, his skillset should be particularly appealing to Dan Quinn. He is also reported to be a great kid, and turned down big NIL money offers to stay with Auburn. He is the kind of player who might receive a Commander tag.
T.J. Parker, Junior, Clemson
6’3” | 265 lbs | Age 21
2025 Key Stats: 7 games | 2 sacks | 19 pressures | 10.9% Pressure Rate | 6 TFL | 16 stops | 1 PD
Consensus Rank: 14
Parker’s production has dipped in 2025, following his mammoth sophomore season (11 sacks, 19.5 TFL, 6 FF). But he remains a disruptive force on the edge. Parker is another power rusher who plays with a nasty, competitive demeanor. While lacking elite burst, he wins with violent hands and refined pass rush technique. Against the run, he sets a firm edge with good length and functional strength to control blockers. He is another player who would benefit from playing in a hybrid defensive front.
Safety
Caleb Downs, Junior, Ohio State
6’0” | 205 lbs | Age 20
2025 Key Stats: 7 games | 34 comb tkl | 2 TFL | 19 stops | 1 INT | 0.44 Y/Cov Snap
Consensus Rank: 5
Downs is the brother of Colts WR Josh Downs. He is one of the top ranked prospects in the draft class, but could drop to the Commanders because he plays an undervalued position. If he does, Adam Peters would be wise to pick the best player available, who happens to address one of the team’s top needs.
Downs is a versatile safety, with the ability to play wherever he’s needed. He plays with elite speed and football IQ to diagnose and anticipate plays. He uses cornerback-like movement skills to blanket receivers in coverage and is able to take on tight ends. He shows great instincts and takes perfect angles in run support, and is a punishing hitter.
Downs was also an elite punt returner in his first two years in college, averaging 18.5 YPA, with two return TDs.
Early runs on QBs, OTs and Edge rushers could drop Downs into Adam Peters’ waiting arms, particularly if the Commanders underperform in the second half of the season.
Defensive Tackle
Peter Woods, Junior, Clemson
6’3” | 310 lbs | Age 20
2025 Key Stats: 7 games | 21 comb tackles| 1.5 TFL | 1 sack | 9 pressures | 15 stops | 1 PD
Consensus Rank: 8
Woods ranked #5 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List. He has exceptional first step quickness for a player his size, and matches his speed with power. According to Feldman, he benched 490 lbs, squatted 700, and ran a 4.86 40 yd dash, and vertical jumped 33 inches at 310 lbs.
Woods’ strength shows when he walks OTs back to the QB. He plays with violent, yet refined hand usage, combined with rare athletic fluidity for his size. Woods is an advanced run defender, who plays with exceptional instincts to diagnose blocking schemes, while maintaining gap integrity. His pass rush is still a work in progress. That could make him too much of a project for an early first round pick in some teams’ eyes. But his natural abilities and upside to develop into an elite interior defender will be to enticing for others to pass up.
Cornerbacks
Jermod McCoy, Junior, Tennessee
6’0” | 193 lbs | 4.52 sec 40 | Age 20
2024 Key Stats: 12 games | 4 INT | 9 PD | 0.98 Y/Cov Snap
Consensus Rank: 16
McCoy tore his ACL in the offseason after a stellar sophomore season for the Vols. His rehab appears to be going well, but he has yet to see the field in 2025. Even so, he still ranks in the top half of the first round on most analysts’ boards. The reason why is that he’s a scheme-versatile corner with elite instincts and advanced technique in press-man or zone coverage schemes. His ball skills and dog mentality to win contested catches translate to any team. He might be the ballhawk Washington needs to tilt the turnover differential in their favor.
Mansoor Delane, Senior, LSU
6’0” | 190 lbs | 4.44 sec 40 | Age 21
2025 Key Stats: 8 games | 1 INT | 7 PD | 0.39 Y/Cov Snap
Consensus Rank: 18
While McCoy is the premier ballhawk, Delane is the top shutdown corner in the draft class. In 8 games, he has allowed just 8 receptions for 100 receiving yards. His worst game of the season was against Ole Miss, when he allowed 2 receptions for 41 yds. That was his only game this season allowing more than 23 yds in coverage. He shut down Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Southeast Louisiana, and allowed 4 yds against Louisiana Tech and 11 against Florida.
Mansoor is a sticky man-cover corner who provides a physical presence on the outside. He will be hard for Dan Quinn to resist if he’s on the board when the Commanders pick.
Wide Receiver
Jordyn Tyson, Senior, Arizona State
6’2” | 200 lbs | Age 21
2025 Key Stats: 7 games | 57 rec | 628 yds | 8 TD | 63.3% rec| 11.0 yd ADOT | 2.27 Y/RR | 1.7% drops
Consensus Rank: 6
The analytics crowd frowns on picking wide receivers near the top of Round 1. But just suppose an early run on QBs pushes the top WR in the draft class to the Commanders picking later in the top 15. Tyson might be too tempting to pass up. He is a skilled technician with exceptional ball skills. Tyson could provide a big target lined up across from Terry to stretch defenses to the breaking point.
Linebacker/Edge
Arvell Reese, Junior, Ohio State
6’4” | 240 lbs | Age 20
2025 Key Stats: 7 games | 6.5 TFL | 23 stops | 5.5 sacks | 19 pressures | 31% pressure rate | 2 PD
Consensus Rank: 12
While opinions are split about taking WRs early in the draft, there is close to consensus on off-ball linebackers. The exception is off-ball linebackers who can rush the passer. Reese is a super-athletic do-it-all linebacker with sideline-to-sideline speed to cover tight ends and running backs, and play strength to take on offensive linemen in the pass rush and run defense. He’s also a quick processor and film junkie.
In 2025, Ohio State has deployed Reese as an edge defender on 144 snaps, and in the defensive backfield on 172 snaps. His rate of pressure on blitzes and edge rushing is off the charts. He is a rare player who can upgrade all facets of a team’s defense. Reese appears to be one of the big risers in the early draft process.
Offensive Tackle
Francis Mauigoa, Junior, Miami (FL)
6’6” | 335 lbs | Age 20
2025 Key Stats: 7 games | 438 off snaps | 2 sacks/7 pressures allowed | 3.1% Pressure Rate
PFF Run Block Grade: 84.8
Consensus Rank: 10
Given how Kliff Kingsbury gushed over Josh Conerly Jr last year, he might have an even bigger man crush on Utah OT Spencer Fano in this draft class. But suppose Adam Peters decides to go a different direction to solidify the long-term future of the Commanders’ front line. Mauigoa is a towering, yet surprisingly nimble right tackle who plays with grip strength and leg drive to generate movement on running downs and an elite-level anchor to stall bull rushes in pass protection.
He would be an immediate upgrade at swing tackle to start his career, if he doesn’t force his way into the starting lineup in camp, and allow Conerly to move to his natural position at LT in the long term. He is only ranked two spots behind Fano, and they’re both Samoan, so there’s really no wrong choice if Peters decides to surprise everyone by continuing the youth movement at OT with a top-15 pick.
