When | 7:00 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | SEC Network +
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
Kenpom prediction | Mizzou -22
ESPN win probability | 98.3% chance
The Starters
Mizzou
G: Anthony Robinson II (JR, 9.6 PPG)
G: Annor Boateng (SO, 6.0 PPG)
F: Jevon Porter (SR, 6.8 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 18.4 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips, Jr. (SR, 8.9 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jacob Crews (GR, 13.8 PPG)
Alabama State
G: Asjon Anderson (SR, 17.9 PPG)
G: Micah Simpson (SR, 16.9 PPG)
G: Cameron Palesse (GR, 6.2 PPG)
F: R’Chaun King
(R-FR, 7.2 PPG)
F: Jerquarius Stanback (R-FR, 7.7 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Tyler Byrd (JR, 9.4 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Alabama State: the defending SWAC tournament champions
From Sam Snelling’s preseason preview:
It’s rare to get these types of buy games in back-to-back seasons, but here we are! Just last year Missouri played Alabama State in late December and got a pretty spicy game from the Hornets. But few could have predicted that season would be Alabama State’s best since 2016. The Hornets ended up making the NCAA Tournament, and won their first round game against another 16th seed, Saint Francis, in dramatic fashion.
Alabama State lost five of its top seven rotation members to graduation or the portal, including its top two scorers in Amarr Knox (now at Eastern Kentucky) and CJ Hines (Temple). That’s the reality of coaching a successful low-major program these days. Head coach Tony Madlock responded by bringing in eight transfers, and the group he put together has made a major impact on the team. Queens College transfer Asjon Anderson leads the Hornets in scoring, and two other starters — Cameron Palesse and R’Chaun King — transferred in during the offseason.
Northeast Mississippi Community College transfer Tyler Byrd also plays a key role for Alabama State, serving as the team’s sixth man and averaging roughly 19 minutes a night. A few of the team’s returners stepped into larger roles, most notably Micah Simpson, who is a close second to Anderson in scoring output after making just one start last season. Jerquarius Stanback also made a big jump, moving directly into the starting lineup after he redshirted his freshman season.
Madlock’s reshaping of the roster this offseason gave SWAC coaches enough confidence to put Alabama State fourth in the conference’s preseason poll, including three first place votes. Whether or not the Hornets have lived up to those preseason expectations… well, the jury is still out. The team enters Thursday’s game with a 3-6 record, and one of those wins came against Virginia University of Lynchburg, which plays in the NCCAA.
Alabama State holds a quality mid-major road win over UAB, 77-74, and the Hornets also handled IU Indy 101-80 on a neutral court. Most of the team’s losses have come to fellow low-or-mid-majors, including a close 66-64 loss to Air Force. Alabama State lost road games to SIUE, New Mexico and UT Martin by 10 points or less, but have been unable to keep up against power conference competition. The Hornets dropped games to Florida State and Colorado by 37 and 28 points, respectively, and allowed an average of more than 97 points between the two contests. This sets Thursday’s game up as one where Dennis Gates and the Tigers can focus more on themselves and the issues they need to fix than what Alabama State specifically brings to the table.
3 Keys to the Game
Space the floor and knock down your shots
Mizzou managed to keep its offense humming after Jayden Stone’s injury due to the large talent gap between the Tigers and their mid-major opponents, but the car completely broke down last week in losses to Notre Dame and Kansas. MU went just 13-of-48 from three-point range over those two games after shooting 39 percent from beyond the arc in its first eight contests. The team’s three-forward lineups of Mark Mitchell, Jevon Porter and Shawn Phillips Jr. have hindered offensive production by clogging up the interior, making it difficult for Mizzou’s guards to effectively drive into the lane and generate open looks from three. Gates nodded to the issue Tuesday at Tiger Talk:
“Jacob [Crews]’s, you know, a floor spacer. I have to make sure he’s getting on the court more with Mark Mitchell to cause some gravity to the sidelines, versus having guys in that paint. The other thing is being able to play Luke Northweather. Obviously, with Jayden Stone out, another three point shooter that we are missing, and obviously Trent Pierce out, who has been able to stretch the floor a little bit. We’ve got to have guys on that court to be able to knock down open looks. And that’s where percentages like Jevon Porter – it’s the lowest he’s ever shot in his career right now.”
The Tigers’ jumbo lineup has worked facing overmatched mid-major opponents, but three games of data against power conference teams show the team needs a revamp as it approaches conference play. Thursday’s game provides Mizzou with the opportunity to reconstruct its lineups and get its perimeter shooting back up in the process. This is not only the biggest key to the game for MU against the Hornets, but the biggest key for the Tigers over the final weeks of the non-conference slate.
Feed Mark Mitchell early and often
Mitchell has easily been the Tigers’ best player this season, again performing at an all-conference rate and leading the team in both scoring and rebounds. He’s displayed an elite ability to finish contested shots in the paint and been one of the few Mizzou players to thrive offensively against power conference competition. Mitchell is the clear top name on the opposing scouting report, but mid-major teams have been unable to stop him even when they know what’s coming.
I’d expect that to be the case again Thursday. Alabama State’s tallest starter (and tallest player receiving notable minutes) is Jerquarius Stanback, a redshirt freshman getting his first taste of playing time in college. And the rest of the team’s players that have appeared in at least eight games are 6-foot-7 or shorter. The Hornets may know how Mark Mitchell will try to score, but I doubt they will be able to stop him, anyway. The Tigers should establish a quick lead — and create some more much-needed spacing — by feeding Mitchell early and often.
Get the train back on the tracks
Mizzou’s performance over its first eight games was not an overwhelming positive, but the team appeared to be operating relatively smoothly despite some recurring issues. The reality has dramatically shifted over the last week, with those issues coming to the forefront against higher-level competition in consecutive losses. The Tigers certainly have problems to fix, but many of them may be addressed by a shift in the team’s rotations and a few key players returning to health.
Mizzou has two games before its next big test against a top-15 Illinois team, then nearly two weeks before MU starts its SEC schedule with games against Florida and Kentucky. That’s a tough three-game stretch, and the Tigers could use a win to build momentum entering a weaker-than-expected conference slate. Mizzou will need to get its offensive rhythm back over the next two games if the team wants to get that win, and two comfortable victories heading into Braggin’ Rights would provide a much-needed reset.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Mizzou 98 – Alabama State 72
This game comes at the perfect time for the Tigers. MU needs a reset on offense, and Alabama State struggled to keep up defensively against its previous two power conference opponents. I’d expect to see Mizzou tinker with some different lineups in an effort to create more spacing like Gates alluded to on this week’s Tiger Talk, and the switch could provide a major offensive boost. Thursday’s game is a crucial opportunity for the Tigers to start building back momentum heading toward an uptick in quality of opponent and respond to a bad week. I’m expecting Mizzou to take advantage of that opportunity and snap its losing streak.
