Hopefully you’ve fully recovered from Carolina’s rollercoaster of a win over Ohio State on Saturday, because the Tar Heels are right back in action tomorrow against ECU.
It will only be the fourth men’s
basketball game between these in-state schools. Carolina faced ECU in the first round of the 1993 NCAA Tournament, and hosted the Pirates twice during Jeff Lebo’s tenure as their head coach. The most recent matchup was a 108-64 win for UNC during the 2014-15 season, and all metrics suggest Monday’s game should be similarly lopsided.
ECU is ranked #267 in KenPom and #288 in NET, making the Pirates one of the lowest-rated teams Carolina has faced this season (only NC Central is below them in both rankings). They’re 5-7, and only one of their wins is rated above Q4 by NET.
With that in mind, here are three things to watch in the Tar Heels’ nonconference finale.
Will Jarin Stevenson remain on the bench?
Obviously, somebody was going to have to vacate their starting spot once Seth Trimble returned. I just figured it would be Luka Bogavac, who stepped into that spot after Trimble’s injury, rather than Jarin Stevenson, who had started every game for Carolina this season.
Bogavac had a day to forget against Ohio State, shooting 0-of-3 from the field (all 3-point attempts) and only playing 13 minutes. He checked out for the final time less than five minutes into the second half. Meanwhile, Stevenson played 27 minutes, scored six points, and made some big plays – none bigger than the steal with 23 seconds left that likely saved the game.
While Stevenson is making an atrocious 17.6% of his threes (he went 0-of-4 against Ohio State) and has taken some ill-advised shots, his defensive abilities and size are enough to compensate for that. I’d really like someone to get an explanation from Hubert Davis if Stevenson isn’t back in the starting lineup against ECU.
Will Seth Trimble stay hot?
It’s not unusual for players to be a bit rusty after missing extended time with an injury. Thankfully for the Tar Heels, their veteran leader was just as effective in his first game back as he was six weeks ago, putting up 17 points (including 3-of-5 from deep) and helping to limit one of the top scorers in Division I. Ohio State’s Bruce Thornton entered Saturday’s contest averaging just under 22 points per game. He finished with 16.
It’s now glaringly apparent just how much better Seth Trimble makes this team on both ends of the floor. With little time to rest after playing 36 minutes on Saturday, it will be a great sign if he can deliver another strong performance on Monday.
Will Carolina play a full 40 minutes?
Carolina hasn’t had a true wire-to-wire win since its season opener against Central Arkansas, when it built a double-digit lead in the first five minutes and led by 20 at the first half under-12 timeout. In subsequent games against mid-major opponents, the Tar Heels have allowed them to hang around for a bit before gaining separation. Against Ohio State, they failed to put the game out of reach after leading by 11 midway through the second half.
With ACC play right around the corner, I just want to see Carolina come out with its foot on the gas against ECU – and keep it there. The Tar Heels avoided disaster on Saturday, but an inability to put a complete game together will eventually cost them in their quest for a conference title.
