After Myles Bailey went down at the beginning of ACC conference play in late March, it seemed impossible for Florida State baseball to be in the conversation to be a top-eight national seed, with a sweep at the hands of Stanford last month compounding the feeling that the Seminoles would be on the outside looking in when it came down to Selection Monday.
Now the No. 3 seed in the ACC tournament after finishing the regular season strong, the Noles are on the doorstep of their second top national seed in the last
three seasons, an incredible testament to Link Jarrett, his staff and the player-led leadership on the 2026 team.
FSU, at the moment, controls its own destiny. Everything goes out the window if the Seminoles fail to take care of business against Pitt on Friday and go one-and-done in the ACC tournament, but even if the Noles do not win the ACC tournament, a couple of wins in Charlotte and a little bit of help around the country, Florida State should be on the right side of the numbers on Monday.
The Seminoles currently sit at 38-16 with 19 ACC wins, their most since 2014. FSU also ranks well in the analytics that the NCAA Tournament committee uses, sitting seventh in RPI and eighth in DSR. That said, this year is a tight one at the top and it appears four teams (Texas A&M, Florida, Alabama and FSU) will battle it out for the final two spots.
Assuming FSU notches a win over Pitt on Friday (which would give the Seminoles a Quad 2 win), here are the teams Florida State should root against and for.
Root against
- Alabama
The Crimson Tide are red hot since the end of April, winning their last three SEC series and putting themselves right in the mix for a top-eight seed after winning 18 games in the SEC. Some would say that number, along with series sweeps over Auburn and Florida, should be enough to lock them into a potential Super Regional hosting spot. However, it is not that easy. Alabama and FSU have been flip-flopping in RPI, between sixth and seventh, but the UA’s DSR is in the double digits. If Alabama goes one-and-done in the SEC tournament with a loss to Florida, it is likely that they would finish with a worse RPI, DSR, and overall record than Florida State with only two more wins in Quad 1 and 2 games (again assuming FSU beats Pitt). It may be hard to root for the Gators, but it is critical for FSU that Alabama has a short stay in Hoover.
- Texas A&M
The Aggies have a profile similar to Alabama’s: they recorded 18 SEC wins, come into Thursday with 19 combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, and took massive series wins over Texas, Florida, and Mississippi State. Again, some would argue that those metrics should be enough, no matter what happens in the conference tournament. Once more, though, the TAMU’s resume is not ironclad. On Thursday morning, Texas A&M ranks seventh in DSR, 12th in RPI, and 24th in strength of schedule. D1 Baseball also had TAMU as the eighth seed in its latest bracket projections. A win over Auburn might be too much for FSU to overcome without winning the ACC tournament, but a one-and-done defeat to the Tigers opens the door for the Seminoles.
Root for
- Florida
This may sound counterintuitive to most, but Florida State should want Florida to keep winning in the SEC tournament. For one, if the Gators defeat Alabama, it would be the Crimson Tide square on the top-eight bubble. Two, if UF wins, that almost guarantees them a top-eight spot. It would be better for Florida to be in a different tier than Florida State, because if the final spot came down to UF or FSU, the Gators own the head-to-head with a series sweep. Someone else has to fill the other top-eight slot, and it would be beneficial if that other team were Florida.
- North Carolina
One of the largest blemishes on FSU’s resume and what may hold them back from getting a top-eight seed is its lack of Quad 1 wins. The Seminoles have only seven on the year, compared to 15 from Alabama and Florida and 10 from Texas A&M. In some ways, Pitt’s defeat of Wake Forest took away another Quad 1 opportunity from FSU, depending on where the Panthers end up in the RPI. So, with that in mind, Florida State should hope North Carolina beats Virginia Tech to set up a mammoth matchup in the ACC tournament. A win over the Heels would be the Noles’ best of the season and would provide one final data point that the committee would have to take into consideration. A win over VT does not move the needle, a win over UNC does.
- Someone besides Southern Mississippi to win the Sun Belt
The way the Sun Belt runs its conference tournaments is complicated, so the easiest way to do this is to root for someone other than Southern Miss to win the conference. USM gets overlooked because it is not in a major conference, but all the Golden Eagles have done this year is win. Southern Miss is 11th in RPI with 41 wins heading into Thursday and was the ninth seed in D1 Baseball’s most recent tournament projections. If USM wins the Sun Belt, it would be hard to keep them off the eight-line. But a loss will almost certainly ruin their chances in a smaller conference.
All stats are courtesy of D1 Baseball.
