For our season preview this year, we decided on something different at Into the Calderón.
(This was Ryan’s idea. If you don’t like it, it’s his fault!
Blame him!)We asked our staff writers to predict the outcome of 11 distinct scenarios, like where Atlético would finish this season in LaLiga, whether the Colchoneros would reach a home Champions League final, which player would be the season’s big disappointment and so on. The voting went down as such:
LaLiga: 3rd (4 votes), 2nd (1 vote) 4th (1)
Copa
del Rey: Semifinals (3), Quarterfinals (2), Winners (1)
Champions League: Quarterfinals (2), Semifinals (2), Winners (1), Play-off round (1)
Supercopa de España: Semifinals (3), Final (2), Winners (1)
Top scorer: Alvarez (3), Lookman (2), Sørloth (1)
Most assists: Baena (3), Grimaldo (2), Lookman (1)
Player of the season: Barrios (2), Llorente (2), Romero (2)
Disappointment: Baena (2), Giuliano (2), Alvarez (1), Johnny (1)
Signing of the season: Romero (4), Grimaldo (1), Kang-In (1)
Breakout player: Arnau (3), Barrios (1), Cubo (1), Kang-In (1)
Madrileño player of the year: Domínguez (3), Castillo (1), Sergio Esteban (1)
For a more detailed breakdown, here are each writer’s picks and their explanations for their choices.
Adam Saladino
LaLiga: 3rd
Copa del Rey: Quarterfinals
Champions League: Semifinals
Spanish Super Cup: 🏆
Top scorer: Julián Alvarez
Most assists: Alejandro Grimaldo
Player of the season: Marcos Llorente
Disappointment: Álex Baena
Signing of the season: Cuti Romero
Breakout player: Lee Kang-In
Ryan McCain
LaLiga: 2nd
Copa del Rey: semifinals
Champions League: semifinals
Spanish Super Cup: winners
Top scorer: Alvarez
Most assists: Grimaldo
Player of the season: Llorente
Disappointment: Baena
Signing of the season: Romero
Breakthrough player of the season: Arnau Ortiz
Madrileño player of the season: Jorge Domínguez
The pressure on Diego Simeone is higher than ever following a campaign in which Atleti finished fourth in LaLiga, lost in the Copa del Rey final, lost to Arsenal in the Champions League semifinals and lost to Real Madrid in the first round of the Supercopa de España. Expectations have shifted from being happy to compete for trophies to needing to win them.
Through their offseason transfers, Atleti made improvements in key areas of need. Morten Hjulmand and Cristian Romero were brought in to bolster the midfield and defense, Alejandro Grimaldo arrived to provide much needed support at left wing back and Kang-in Lee arrived as an Antoine Griezmann “replacement” and competition for Giuliano Simeone.
Overall, I’d say that Atleti are better than they were last season. I expect them to win a trophy this season and end their five-year trophy drought.
Jeremy Beren
LaLiga: 3rd
Copa del Rey: semifinals
Champions League: quarterfinals
Spanish Super Cup: finalists
Top scorer: Ademola Lookman
Most assists: Baena
Player of the season: Pablo Barrios
Disappointment: Johnny Cardoso
Signing of the season: Kang-In
Breakthrough player of the season: Miguel Cubo
Madrileño player of the season: Jorge Castillo
Atlético have cleared out a lot of deadweight to construct a leaner squad that — if healthy — should be competitive into April.
Cuti Romero’s arrival brings flexibility and leadership to a defense that will benefit from Grimaldo’s elite playmaking and Marc Pubill’s continued growth. Hjulmand brings balance to a midfield that needed Marcos to fill in as a pivot in practically every big game last season. Kang-In could miss all of January due to Asian Cup participation, but his creativity will go some way toward patching the Griezmann-sized hole between midfield and attack. Baena and Barrios both face “prove it” years: one must stay fit, the other must put a bad debut season behind him.
While Atleti should be stronger defensively, the Rojiblancos have major questions in attack. It’s hard to see Alvarez regaining his best form amid the damage done to his image from Barcelona’s bruising pursuit of his services. Alexander Sørloth will drain far too many resources to score 15 goals or so. Lookman appears primed for a big year, and Arnau could be a pleasant surprise, but Cholo Simeone desperately needs another starting-caliber player up top.
Have Atleti improved this summer? Yes, although we’ll have to see how the transfer window ends.
Will that improvement convey in the tangible form of a first trophy since 2021? The odds remain against it.
Sam Leveridge
LaLiga: 3rd. In one-off fixtures, the Colchoneros can beat Barcelona and Real Madrid. Over 38 games balancing with other competitions? That’s going to be tricky. But the chasing pack of Villarreal, Real Betis and Real Sociedad all look weaker or similar to last season, so third should be well within reach.
Copa del Rey: Winners. Semi-finals two years ago. Beaten finalists a year ago. This year is when Simeone’s men put an end to the trophy drought and get their hands on silverware again.
Champions League: Quarter-finals. This team is good, but the luck of the draw matters. Atleti aren’t one of the best four teams in Europe. Simeone is capable of performing miracles like last year’s destruction of Barcelona, but we can’t rely on that happening every year.
Spanish Super Cup: Semi-finals. We all know that the RFEF’s hot balls in the draw will ensure that Atleti face one of Barcelona or Real Madrid, and at peak injury season, there’s no need for Atlético to push the boat out on this competition.
Top scorer: Alvarez. Who else? Julián’s left himself no choice but to try to reintegrate and rebuild his career here. Fans won’t be forgiving, but the only way to make amends is by scoring goals, as Griezmann showed. It’s a big ask, but somebody needs to be scoring this season.
Most assists: Lookman. His creativity and positioning, timing his runs well, will get him in the danger areas to be an option.
Player of the season: Barrios. It has to be make or break for Pablito. Injuries hit hard in the second half of last season, but this looks almost certain to be Koke’s last season at the club, and an heir is needed. In Cardoso and Hjulmand, Barrios faces arguably the strongest competition he has had since he broke through, which is exactly why he needs to step up.
Disappointment: Giuliano. Saying this as one of the biggest Giuliano Simeone fans around, it hurts. A switch to a wing-back system won’t help Cholito, who most definitely is not a defender, and a game based on intensity and physicality will be feeling the hangover of only six weeks of rest in the last two years between the Club World Cup and the World Cup.
Signing of the season: Grimaldo. The only arrival who will be a guaranteed starter all season long. The ceilings of Kang-in or Romero may be higher, but the potential to upgrade from Matteo Ruggeri or Javi Galán is clear.
Breakthrough player: Arnau Ortiz. Simeone gets criticised for not giving enough minutes to youngsters, but when they deserve it, they often get them. Arnau operates in a position where he should get minutes, and his confidence to take players on in pre-season has shown that he can make an impact.
Madrileño player of the year: Domínguez. His minutes in pre-season have shown what he can become, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him more regularly on the fringes of the first team. Even so, he must first become a key figure in Fernando Torres’ side in defence, where his team have been crying out for someone to step up with some real quality.
Oliver Cores
LALIGA: 4th. I don’t see us improving on last season, and I imagine it will follow a similar path too: a slow start followed by a great October to January before it all unravels in the crunch part of the season.
Copa del Rey: Quarter-finals. After reaching the final last season, there will be calls for Atleti to push for the cup once more. However, coming across an in-form LALIGA side at the poorly timed quarter-final stage is sometimes enough to end a run.
Champions League: Play-off round. My sincerest apologies for continuing the least-inspirational predictions of 2026, but I don’t think we’re in any sort of position to compete for the biggest prize in club football this season.
Supercopa de España: Final. Atleti will have to get past Barcelona, but they will have their best chance at a trophy in Istanbul.
Top scorer: Sørloth. I find it hard to see where the goals will come from this season, and although he may not play regularly, somewhere between 15-20 goals may be enough to end up as the top scorer.
Most assists: Baena. I trust Baena to carry through his World Cup form through to this season and regain his superior chance creation he possessed at Villarreal.
Player of the season: Romero. Once the anti-Argentine smoke clears amongst the local fanbase, it will become clear that Atleti have a complete warrior on their hands, someone whose innate competitiveness will instantly have him defending the badge as if he came through the academy a decade ago.
Disappointment: Alvarez. Whether or not a player who underperforms whilst having no interest of being at Atlético Madrid can be classed as a disappointment, I see la araña biting very little this season.
Signing of the season: Grimaldo. He may be an addition made a couple of years too late, but Grimaldo is still the guy that Cholo Simeone wants in that position of the pitch, allowing him to revert to a back five. He’ll provide some handy assists and pop up with a fair few goals, including free-kicks.
Breakthrough player: Barrios. The logical option would be to say someone from the academy, like a Javi Boñar or Arnau Ortiz who has been promoted from the B team. However, I’m going to look a level above and predict that Barrios is going to hit the level of a player who is internationally recognised as one of the current best in his position — meaning MVP performances in Champions League, regular international appearances and nine-figure bids from the Premier League in January or next summer.
Madrileño player of the season: Sergio Esteban. He may not be officially part of the squad just yet, but it will only be a matter of time before Esteban is called up from Atleti C to replace the goals that Ortiz has left behind.
Ashwin Ballal
LaLiga: 3rd
Copa del Rey: Semifinals
Champions League: Winners
Spanish Super Cup: Semifinals
Top scorer: Lookman
Most assists: Baena
Player of the season: Llorente
Disappointment: Giuliano
Signing of the season: Romero (Grimaldo a close 2nd)
Breakthrough player of the season: Arnau
Madrileño player of the season: Domínguez
Will Diego Simeone sign a new contract?: Yes.
Yes, you did read that right, but I want to clear one thing up — this prediction is heavily dependent on the fitness of the squad. I know it is not wise to bank on the likes of Romero staying fit the whole year, but it is hard for me to not get excited about the defense and midfield when everyone is healthy.
Grimaldo is the strongest left-back signing since Filipe Luís. It surprised me that Atleti kept 14 clean sheets last year, just one shy of Barcelona who had the most in the league, but the potential to bump that number up to 18 (2020/21 season high) is significant.
The only reason why I do not have Simeone’s side finishing 2nd is because, with the lean squad, I believe his focus will quickly shift to the evasive big-eared trophy. It’s always one of those things that happens when you least expect it.
Will the attack be up to the task? I am not in a confident mood over Julián, but elsewhere I am very upbeat about both Lookman and Kang-In. The latter fills a void left by Griezmann but arguably has more legs in him to be more impactful across a whole season. His departure for the Asia Cup will hurt, but not to the extent that it derails the season. If Cholo can trust Lookman enough to be his new talisman, then we are in for a treat. He has already shown that he can come in clutch, especially in Europe.
I also think Baena kicks on from the World Cup — if the afterparty is anything to go by, he looks determined to break out. His creativity will be much needed to squeeze every bit of threat out of this attack. My only real worry is for Giuliano, whose role only becomes more confusing the more he plays. Unless there’s a (re)-transformation on the cards, it could be a tough year for Cholito.
You would think Simeone picked up a thing or two from Arsenal last year, who showed that a strong defense can take you very far in the Champions League even without the most potent strike force. With the right luck of the draw, a juicy final at the Metropolitano will be in Cholo’s sights.
As for his contract, I believe Atleti’s squad overhaul is only now coming to fruition, and this side still looks a year or two away from challenging for La Liga again. It would need a near calamitous season for Cholo to walk away from this at the end of the year. He has also maintained that his only other managerial aspiration is at Inter, but it is hard to see them moving on from Chivu after the Scudetto and a contract renewal at the end of last year. It may not be for much longer, but I think we get at least another year after this one.
