The Michigan baseball team’s postseason hopes are on hold for right now. The Wolverines put together a strong regular season, but as a school from the north, that doesn’t always translate to a guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan was on a roll the latter half of the season, putting itself in a good spot to earn a tournament bid. The margin for error was slim, but it wasn’t hard to imagine this year’s team could be postseason bound.
Then, the final week of the season happened. Originally,
Michigan was scheduled to play Ohio in its midweek game (the MAC’s worst team), but took the risk of rescheduling the game against a much stronger opponent in Kent State to boost its resume. Unfortunately, Michigan lost, 5-3, and then was swept at home by Ohio State, a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Ten. The Wolverines ended the regular season 32-22 overall and with a big hit to their postseason chances.
With one more chance to impress the committee in the Big Ten Tournament, the Wolverines still left some doubt by going 2-2 on the weekend.
The NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed on ESPN2 at noon ET, and it seems like the odds are pretty slim for Michigan to earn a bid. In recent projections from Baseball America and d1baseball.com, the Wolverines are right on the doorstep, being listed as one of the first four teams out.
Given the Big Ten’s level of competition, finishing with more than 20 regular-season losses makes it tough for northern teams to make the tournament. For perspective, when Michigan reached the College World Series in 2019, it had only lost 18 games in the regular season and wasn’t really looked at as a contender going into the opening weekend of the tournament.
Still, Michigan does have a pretty solid resume. Although it has dropped slightly, the Wolverines are No. 53 in the NCAA’s RPI metric, which still puts them in the pack. Additionally, Michigan has wins over Oregon State (No. 18 in RPI) and Louisville (No. 87), and series wins over Oregon (No. 16), Maryland (No. 83) and Minnesota (No. 92).
Looking at some of the other bubble teams, Purdue is essentially in the same position as Michigan, having lost in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. The Boilermakers have a better record than Michigan (37-20) and similarly have a win over Oregon State this season, matching Michigan’s best achievement in non-conference play. Pittsburgh also sits on the bubble at 33-24 after losing in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on Saturday, but has two wins over Louisville and one over Georgia Tech.
Kent State is also a bubble team after losing in the MAC Tournament. No. 6-seeded Ball State ended up winning the tournament, stealing a bid and pushing Kent State into at-large territory. The Golden Flashes would undoubtedly get the nod over Michigan thanks to their head-to-head victory.
At this point, it certainly isn’t impossible for the Wolverines to make the tournament, but they certainly face a much steeper climb than what they did just two weeks ago. As we’ve seen with all college sports, getting hot at the right time is important when it comes to tournament selection. Unfortunately, Michigan did just the opposite and its season hangs in the balance.
