Item List: A very good offense against an average defense. A lousy offense versus a lousy defense. A rivalry game. Belichick’s last shot at home to win back some goodwill from UNC fans who’ve grown increasingly
pessimistic about this experiment. Let’s preview what Duke’s bringing to Chapel Hill and how it might all shake out.
Duke’s Offense
Here’s a list of the FBS quarterbacks that UNC has faced and their QBR. Wins are in bold. For context, Gio Lopez’s QBR is 47.3
- Josh Hoover, TCU, 70.9
- Connor Harrell, Charlotte, 41.2
- Tayven Jackson, UCF, 49.1
- Cade Klubnik, Clemson, 62.7
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, California, 50.3
- Chandler Morris, Virginia, 68.5
- Joseph Filardi, Syracuse, 2.1 (!!!!)
- Elijah Brown, Stanford, 40.1
- Robby Ashford, Wake Forest, 43.7
Darian Mensah’s is 74.6. Objectively, Mensah is the best QB UNC will face this season. Slowing down that passing attack will be a necessity for UNC to have a hope in this game.
Duke’s passing attack spreads the ball around to a number of pass catchers, both wide receivers and tight ends. Six of them have 20+ receptions on the year, and five of those average better than 12 yards per receptions. Their depth in pass catchers and Mensah’s ability to find the mismatch, play by play, drives their offense. Count on Duke being very aggressive against this secondary and especially testing UNC’s linebackers’ ability to cover.
Duke’s been tremendously effective on so-called “standard downs,” downs in which run or pass are both clearly on the table. Think 1st and 10, 2nd and 6, downs like that. In fact, Duke’s faced only 121 third down attempts on the season, one of the lowest totals in the country. Virginia, by contrast, has faced 179 third down attempts. UNC’s only faced 131, but it also averages 18.7 points a game. Virginia and Duke average 33+.
UNC’s linebackers will be tested in this game in ways only Clemson and TCU could test them up to this point. Duke’s Nate Sheppard averages 6.25 yards per rush on the season and 5.85 in conference play. The back-up, Appalachian State transfer Anderson Castle, averages about a yard less. Tight ends Jeremiah Hasley and Landen King average 14 yards a catch when the linebackers get too focused on filling run gaps. Duke’s offense hopes to have opposing linebackers worrying about running plays, RPOs, and short crossing routes all game.
Duke’s offensive line has allowed 22 sacks on the season, which puts them in the middle of the pack on that front. Stanford was one of the worst in the country at allowing sacks, and UNC racked up nine. Wake Forest has been one of the best in the country, and the Deacs only allowed UNC two. UNC’s wins have two clear contributing factors: the Tar Heel defensive line controlling the line of scrimmage and an opposing QB no better or worse than Lopez. Virginia was almost the exception to that formula.
If UNC’s defensive front can disrupt the Duke backfield the same way it disrupted Virginia’s, then a win becomes much more possible. Forcing Duke to rely on Mensah to win the game Drake Maye style (almost all by himself) isn’t a guarantee of a win, but a comfortable Mensah likely means a game over in the third quarter.
A word of warning on your expectations for the UNC defense: the strength of schedule for the defense only ranks 109th. We’ve faced one of the weakest collections of offenses in the country. Half of UNC’s opponents have had more issues at QB than the Heels. If your eye test likes what it’s seen from the defense since the Clemson game, then you should happily lean into it — all those sacks happened, and they’ve been the lone bright spot for this team this season. Just understand that the last offense we faced with this sort of ranking went crazy. If progress has indeed been made, we should see it Saturday.
Duke’s Defense
Conversely, Duke’s defense has faced a run of potent offenses. Their collection of offensive opposition ranks 29th in the country, so looking at their raw numbers (total defense, scoring defense, etc.) can be a bit misleading. Only California, ranked 89th in FEI on offense, and Syracuse, ranked 101st, can be called bad offenses on their schedule. California scored 21 and Syracuse 3, both in Blue Devil wins.
Duke’s last four games have been against offenses ranked by FEI 24th (Georgia Tech), 47th (Clemson), 50th (UConn), and 49th (Virginia). Those teams rushed for 726 yards and passed for 1,222 more. Duke surrendered an average of 7 yards a play and 41 points a game over that stretch.
The one stat where Duke’s defense stands out is tackles for loss (TFL). They’re 9th in the country in that category, and as noted, they’ve done it against a collection of good offenses. They’ve also been burned a lot by those offenses, and looking at the big picture, that seems a bit by design. With an offense like Duke’s, the strategy of going for broke on defense rather than letting opponents work against a “bend but don’t break defense” makes sense. Duke doesn’t want opponents consuming clock and limiting the number of times Mensah touches the ball. Duke calculates that more possessions for Mensah only means more points, so they roll the dice on defense to force the issue.
Most of Duke’s TFL production comes from their three defensive linemen, Vincent Anthony Jr., Aaron Hall, and Wesley Williams. Most of that also comes against the run game. When it comes to pass rush, Duke’s weak. The team has 20 sacks on the season and only 36 pressures, and that again comes mostly from Williams and Anthony. Duke’s two leading tacklers are safeties, and that’s exactly what to expect from a defense taking big chances and hoping the safeties can keep the misses out of the end zone.
Summary
This could be a long day for UNC. Duke loses games when opposing offenses can outpace Duke’s, and that doesn’t really sound like anything to expect from Belichick’s offense. Duke’s defense suffers when accurate QBs pick apart their secondary against a weak rush; that doesn’t really sound like Lopez. Carolina’s defense looks great when the opposing QB stinks, and that’s not Mensah.
More worrisome, the UNC defense looked increasingly dispirited during the second half of the game against Wake Forest. They have to know by now that a certain level of scoreboard deficit means “game over.” If Duke jumps out to a lead early — the same sort of game flow we saw against TCU, UCF, and Clemson — things could get genuinely ugly.
On the other hand, Carolina once had a point guard named King Rice who was booed by UNC fans in the Smith Center for poor results. And somehow, King rose to the occasion against Duke, dominating Bobby Hurley in their match-ups and leading UNC to wins. Rivalry games breed strange heroes and strange outcomes. If Lopez can trust himself and his receivers, Duke’s defense will give them plenty of opportunities to make plays. And if that happens, UNC just needs a break on a turnover — the opposite of what the Heels got against Wake — to send the Blue Devils home empty-handed.
Go Heels. Beat Duke.
