Game notes
- Time and date: Tuesday, November 18 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Huskie Stadium — DeKalb, IL
- Spread: Western Michigan (-6.5)
- Over/under: 38.5
- All-time series: Western Michigan leads, 27-23
- Last meeting: Northern Illinois 42, Western Michigan 28 — November 6, 2024
- Current streak: Northern Illinois, 3 (2022-24)
Setting the scene
The Western Michigan Broncos (6-4, 5-1 MAC) control their destiny for their first MAC Championship Game appearance since that magical 2016 season, where they started 13-0 under P.J. Fleck and qualified
for the Cotton Bowl. In order to qualify, they must simply win out against a pair of 7-loss teams.
One of those teams is the Northern Illinois Huskies (3-7, 2-4 MAC), which plays longtime MAC West rival Western Michigan for the final time Tuesday night before fleeing to the Mountain West this summer. NIU is barred from bowl eligibility, but when has that mattered? Just six years ago, Western Michigan was win-and-in for the MAC title game, and a 7-loss Huskie team derailed the Broncos’ journey in DeKalb.
Western Michigan Broncos outlook
Western Michigan has won six of seven in a poised response to an 0-3 start. The Broncos collected several crucial conference victories on their pathway to wielding the MAC’s best record, defeating preseason favorite Toledo and reigning champion Ohio along the way.
The reason for Western Michigan’s success? Defense. The Broncos rank 17th in scoring defense and 13th in total defense on a national level, surrendering 18.4 points and 294 yards per game. First-year defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary, a former Notre Dame and Los Angeles Chargers assistant, made this unit equally dangerous against the run and pass, and both facets of the defense are built on the foundation of line of scrimmage dominance.
Western Michigan’s assertive front ranks 10th in the FBS in sacks at 3.1 per game, and Nadame Tucker is a significant reason behind that success. Tucker is first in the country with 16 tackles for loss and his 10.5 sacks are tied for fourth overall. The Houston transfer defensive end looks like bona fide NFL talent on a weekly basis, and he has also forced three fumbles in a spectacular season.
Another Bronco defender that makes this unit click is strong safety Tate Hallock. The seventh-year senior is on track to collect another All-MAC selection in a season with 43 tackles and two interceptions for one of the nation’s best defenses. Outside linebacker Sefa Saipaia Jr. (the team’s leading tackler), cornerback Jarvarius Sims, and defensive tackle Marcel Tyler are among the other assertive contributors on a defense which has held five opponents to 14 points or fewer.
Offensively, the Broncos won’t blow you away with 40-point outbursts, but the unit is steadily becoming more effective. They only reached 30 points in regulation once this year vs. FBS competition, shutting out Ball State 42-0 back in October. The offense relies heavily on the dual-threat abilities of quarterback Broc Lowry, and the QB draw is the bread and butter play of the offense.
Lowry rushed for north of 80 yards on five-straight MAC opponents, often taking 15 to 20 attempts per game. The 6’1”, 210 pounder is a commanding goal line presence, punching in nine rushing touchdowns for the Broncos this year — exactly half the team’s touchdowns on the ground. Lowry is the leading rusher by a considerably amount, and Western Michigan continues to search for a spark in regard to Jalen Buckley and the running backs.
It was a slow passing start to the season for the Broncos, but they’ve picked it up lately in conference play. Lowry averages 176 passing yards per conference matchup, and he’s 2-0 when crossing the 200-yard threshold. But most importantly, he refrains from turnovers. He owns a 7-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio, effectively finding targets like Tailique Williams (team-highs with 33 receptions and 474 yards) without coughing it up to the defense.
Northern Illinois Huskies outlook
Northern Illinois is fresh off a very cathartic win. The Huskies bashed the FBS’s worst team in UMass 45-3, letting out loads of frustration from a season filled with offensive struggles in their first road win of 2025.
Prior to last Wednesday, NIU never recorded more than 21 points in a single game. Yet, the Huskies had 31 by halftime and 45 by the 8-minute mark of the third quarter, finally enjoying a stellar offensive outing to the tune of 433 yards. Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock made a major adjustment prior to the UMass game, inserting Jalen Macon as the new starting quarterback.
Macon’s first career FBS start went swimmingly. The former FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff transfer completed 3-of-4 passes for 73 yards and a touchdown while showcasing his mobility. As a runner, he picked up 98 yards and three touchdowns on 12 carries, unlocking a new degree of NIU’s offense by offering that element. Macon will see his second start Tuesday night, hoping to cause fits for a typically stout Western Michigan defense.
As suggested by Macon’s stat-line, Northern Illinois only really passes when it has to. The Huskies prefer to pound the rock, owning the seventh-fewest passing attempts in the FBS. NIU uses its own thunder and lightning running back duo of Chavon Wright and Telly Johnson Jr., where the former picks up the tough yardage to maneuver downfield and the latter excels on breakaway runs. Freshman Lazaro Rogers also joins the mix at times, and he’s fresh off a career-high in touches.
The other skill position name to watch in this offense is DeAree Rogers, who has a near-monopoly on the receiving game with 473 receiving yards (next closest teammate has 141) on 42 receptions (next closest teammate has 15). But overall, there is a lot to improve on offense as NIU ranks fourth-to-last nationally in scoring (15.5 points per game), fifth-to-last in total yardage, and third-to-last in passing.
However, Northern Illinois is exceptional on defense. There is the occasional rough outing, such as the Ohio and Toledo games, but NIU consistently records stops and forces offenses off schedule. Despite a 3-7 record, NIU is 48th in scoring defense at 22.2 points allowed per game and 51st in total defense.
The centerpiece of this unit is inside linebacker Quinn Urwiler, who is four stops away from becoming the nation’s leading tackler. Urwiler has 118 tackles on the year, and the omnipresent force reached 10+ tackles in all but two starts this year. He is also the team leader in tackles for loss, receiving assistance in his backfield endeavors from outside linebacker Filip Maciorowski.
NIU produces stops consistently without a heavy hand in the turnover battle. The Huskies average just one takeaway per game, and the safeties Jasper Beeler and Muhammed Jammeh look to add to their interception totals to provide the offense favorable field position in what’s expected to be a defensive struggle.
Prediction
The over/under is set to 38.5 points, and for good reason. These are two of the MAC’s top defenses, and neither team is renowned for its offensive production. It’s hard to believe last year’s matchup produced a 42-28 score, but that will be far from the case Tuesday night.
Western Michigan enters with the edge on both sides, but Northern Illinois’ defense can muck up a game and make an offense look unrecognizable. Even San Diego State’s offense, which scored 40+ three times this year, only managed a mere six points at Huskie Stadium earlier this season. Turnovers and special teams will play significant factors in this one, as the defenses are slated to produce routine stops and punts all night.
The Broncos’ consistent defense should stifle Northern Illinois’ struggling offense to 14 points or below, and that should be enough leeway for the offense to escape DeKalb with a key piece to the MAC Championship puzzle.
Prediction: Western Michigan 17, Northern Illinois 9
