The big things that came to mind when I sat down to analyze Anthony Davis were negatives: he misses a lot of games, and he’s aging — he’ll turn 34 in March.
As Southern Utah University sports economist and author of Wages of Wins David Berri has written, NBA players age like milk.
A few other things stand out about Davis, though — mainly how frigging terrific he is when he does play. For example, Davis has six seasons with a PPA of 200 or higher. That’s six more than the Washington Wizards/Bullets
franchise has posted since 1977-78.
Reminder: PPA is my all-around statistical production metric, which accounts for rule, pace, and defense. In PPA, average is 100 and higher is better. A score of 200+ for a full season in PPA would typically merit All-NBA honors and make the individual an MVP candidate. Davis, by the way, is five-time All-NBA, five-time All-Defense, and likely would have another of each if he’d been healthier in his final season with New Orleans.
Has Davis been great? You bet. Will he continue to be? That’s a tougher question. Athletes at Davis’ age tend to do two things reliably: get worse and get hurt. Davis got the jump on the whole “getting hurt” thing. And, he has been getting worse too — his last 200+ PPA season was 2019-20, though he did get close in 2022-23 (195) and 2023-24 (188).
Last season, his PPA was 157, which is very good. He managed just 20 games and 626 minutes, though he likely would have returned to the court if he’d been with a team that had any inclination to attempt winning. Which was not the Wizards, of course.
The Wizards want to compete this season, and their hope is that Davis will be able to show The Way to Alex Sarr. And it might work if Davis is healthy and motivated enough to practice, play in most of the games, and travel with the team regularly.
When I ran Davis’ 2025-26 season through the Statistical Doppelganger Machine, I confess that I hoped to get a few throwbacks. I wanted Robert Parish, who posted a 170 PPA at age 39 and didn’t play fewer than 72 games in a season until his age 43 season, or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (184 PPA at age 38), but neither showed up high on Davis’ similar list. I do really like some of the comps Davis did get from The Machine.
Here’s the top five:
- Pau Gasol | 2013-14 | Los Angeles Lakers | Age: 33 — At this point in his career, it looked like Gasol — who was a great and criminally underrated player — was in the age-related decline portion of his career. He posted a 205 PPA at age 30, a 171 at 31, and then followed it with injury-riddled years — 126 (and just 49 games) at 32 and a 138 in this comp season (only 60 games). And then, 189, 179, 166, and 165 from ages 34-37. Not bad at all.
- LaMarcus Aldridge | 2018-19 | San Antonio Spurs | Age: 33 — This was effectively the end of the road for Aldridge, who’d been very good throughout his career (though a bit overrated, in my opinion). His health and production fell off a cliff after this season.
- Derrick Coleman | 1999-00 | Charlotte Hornets | Age: 32 — Talented power forward who had questionable attitude and commitment and never really achieved his full potential. This was one of his better seasons (151 PPA). His best had been 6-7 years previous when he was with the New Jersey Nets. He had a couple more better than average (though not by a lot) seasons at ages 34 and 35.
- Tim Duncan | 2009-10 | San Antonio Spurs | Age: 33 — I LOVE this comp for Davis, in part because Davis can have a similar defensive impact, and in part because what Duncan was able to do in his mid-to-late 30s. Duncan posted a 219 PPA in this season, which is one of five 200+ PPA seasons past 30 years old. He also posted a 199 PPA at age 32, at 197 at 34, and a 191 at 35. His last 200+ season was at 38. In full, Duncan produced 10 200+ PPA seasons, plus another six of 190 or better. He had three seasons below 190 — rookie year (187), age 37 (186), and age 39 (161). Davis isn’t of that stature, but he isn’t that far off.
- Kevin McHale | 1989-90 | Boston Celtics | Age: 32 — Well, I wanted a 1980s era throwback. For the kids out there, look for some highlights on YouTube. McHale was a postup wizard — he had exquisite footwork, superb moves, counters to what defenders would typically do, and then counters to the counters. He was also a great shot maker with a killer jump hook. He even exhibited some three-point shooting later in his career. McHale was a seven-time All-Star, six-time All-Defense, two-time Sixth Man of the Year winner, and joined Davis on the NBA’s 75th Anniversary Team. This season was also near the end of the line for McHale — he posted a 158 PPA at 32 (playing in all 82 games), a 140 in 68 games the following season, and then a 106 and a 72 to round out his career.
The honorable mentions are a similar mix of good-to-great players at various stages of their age-related decline, and include 0ver-age-30 seasons from Al Jefferson, David West, Rik Smits, Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, and Kevin Garnett.
Media reports indicate the Wizards will wait to engage Davis in contract extension talks. That’s smart. Smarter would be to showcase a healthy Davis for half a season and trade him for player assets with a future rather than awarding him a major contract. His injury history suggests the next contract will be painful for the team. Plus, the Wizards have a young Davis type already on the roster (Sarr) who may be able to benefit from the example and then thrive in the role.
