Does game four of the American League Championship Series feel like a must win for the Tampa Bay Rays?
100% yes.
Will the weather affect the game?
Also, 100% yes.
The Rays and Guardians are at the mercy of mother nature in Cleveland and thus far, she has not been benevolent to the two teams.
Game three’s start time was moved up to 1pm on Thursday, making the earliest LCS game since the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets played at 12:20 at Shea Stadium. The earlier start time did little to help wake
up the Rays sluggish offense as they only mustered two runs and struck out 13 times during the 3-2 loss.
Junior Caminero in particular had a rough game as he went to the plate four times and returned back to the dugout each as a strikeout victim. Caminero has only once in his big league career struck four times in a single game and that was back in 2025, when he went 0-4 with 4 K’s against the San Francisco Giants. The rest of the starting lineup didn’t fare much better as they only collected three hits during the game; Chandler Simpson provided the only runs when he laced a two-run triple down the right field line that actually gave the Rays the lead at the time.
The Rays postseason offensive production continues to be miniscule as they are now collectively hitting .197/.249/.314 with a 56 wRC+. The Rays touted big three of Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, and Junior Caminero have combined to hit .221/.284/.324 with just 1 HR over 75 PA, registering a 71 wRC+. During the regular season, those three hit .281/.359/.469 with 86 HR over 2026 PA, registering a 130 wRC+.
On the mound, the pitchers have done their part, with the staff holding a 2.72 ERA over their six postseason games. But there isn’t much margin for error when the offense has only averaged exactly three runs a game.
Tonight, it will be up to Nick Martinez to keep up the valiant pitching effort thus far from the Rays staff.
The 35-year old veteran makes his return to the mound after last starting during game three of the ALDS against the New York Yankees. Martinez was shaky during the outing but the overall results were fine. He surrendered five hits — all singles — while he walked one and struck out three over 3.2 innings of work. He left the game after getting drilled by a line drive off of the bat of Anthony Volpe, though the hit likely would have spelled the end of Martinez’s outing anyways.
Over the course of an All-Star season, the now 36-year old Martinez compiled a 3.10 ERA | 3.96 FIP with a 15.1 K% and league leading 3.6 BB% over 180 IP.
The Rays bullpen was exceptional during game three as Tyler Wells and Steven Matz provided the Rays with a total of four scoreless innings while racking up six strikeouts.; it was Matz’s first time pitching since September 26th. This allowed Kevin Cash to provide an extra day of rest to his top relievers, while also shielding them from being seen by the Guardians hitters more than needed; plus, they kept the game close enough to where the Rays still had a chance to mount a comeback.
Thus, all of the Rays top bullpen arms should be available today should Kevin Cash need to call upon them.
The Guardians meanwhile are thus far undecided on their pitching plans.
Speculation right now points to southpaw Joey Cantillo providing the bulk of the innings with Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi also appearing as options. Manager Stephen Vogt relied on his top relief arms during game three’s victory so there’s a question as to the availability of Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, and Daniel Espino although I’m sure if the moment calls for it, any of that foursome would eagerly pitch.
Joey Cantillo has been an under-the-radar solid thrower for the Guardians since making his big league debut in 2024. The 26-year old mainly worked as a starting pitcher this season for Cleveland while splitting the 2025 season between the rotation and bullpen. Overall during the 2026 campaign, Cantillo compiled a 3.62 ERA | 3.98 FIP with a 24.9 K% & 11.8 BB% over 159 IP.
As for the weather.
The local news in Cleveland is reporting dreary miserable weather conditions for the weekend. It is likely to rain almost for the entirety of Friday, almost surely leading to a rain delay or possible postponement. The wind will wreak havoc on fly balls while the cold and rainy atmosphere will make for horrendous on field conditions. Memories of BJ Upton sloshing around on a muddy infield are at the forefront of my mind.
The sun will reemerge on Saturday but won’t bring warmth with it as the high is forecasted to to be around 46 degrees during the first pitch.
First pitch tonight is currently slated to be thrown at 8pm
