Game location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
Game time/channel: 4:30 PT/7:30 PM ET (ESPN2)
Spread: -7.5 (BYU)
Matchup History: ECU, 2-1
You read that right. East Carolina not only has won two of the three matchups with BYU, but they have won two straight. Granted, when ECU defeated the Cougars in Greenville in 2017, that was one of the worst BYU teams of the last 50 years. In 2022, ECU upset the Cougars as the Cougars defense allowed the Pirates to hang around long enough for a game-winning field
goal as time expired. The Cougars’ only win against ECU came in 2015, when they rode 332 passing yards and three touchdowns from Tanner Mangum to a 45-38 shootout win.
Head coach: Blake Harrell (2nd Year)
2025 Season Thus Far
ECU has shown impressive fight in all three of their games so far. They began the season at rival NC State and acquitted themselves well on the road against an ACC squad that is currently 3-0. ECU then smoked FCS-foe Campbell before shutting out Coastal Carolina on the road, 38-0. ECU sits at 2-1, with BYU arguably their toughest opponent remaining on the schedule.
SP+ Ranking: 69th (66th on offense, 74th on defense)
BYU ranks 28th overall in SP+, with the offense sitting at 48th and the defense at 21st.
When ECU Has the Ball
When I think of ECU, I think of passing it all over the yard. Last year, they averaged 264 passing yards per game, good enough for 27th in the FBS. This year, it’s more of the same. Their 346 yards per game through the air is currently 11th in college football and they rank 10th in passing attempts. Needless to say, BYU’s defense needs to be on high alert for the passing game. ECU quarterback Katin Houser leads the American Athletic Conference with 973 yards passing. The Pirates have a three-headed monster at receiver, with Anothony Smith, Yannick Smith, and Brock Spalding. Tight end Jayvontay Conner leads the team with 23.1 yards per reception.
This will be an excellent test for a great BYU defense. Safeties Tanner Wall and Faletau Satuala need to make sure nobody gets behind them as the Pirates take deep shots. Evan Johnson, Mory Bamba, and Therrian Alexander III will certainly be busy at cornerback. But if the Cougars can slow down the passing attack, ECU doesn’t run the ball well. Hitting deep shots is basically the only way the Pirates can put up enough points on this Jay Hill defense to contend for the win. One thing to watch for is whether or not defensive tackle Justin Kirkland returns to the lineup for BYU. The Oklahoma State transfer is yet to play for the Cougars but would instantly provide some bulk along the interior defense.
When BYU Has the Ball
How this game goes feels like is a decision for the BYU offense. The defense is good enough to slow down ECU. The Cougars offense under Aaron Roderick needs to do their part. This is true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier’s first road start. And it’s a doozy- two time zones away along the east coast. It’s the farthest trip BYU will make this season. The best thing BYU can do is rely on the running game led by LJ Martin, who leads the Big 12 with 9.3 yards per attempt. The good news is veteran left guard Weylin Lapuaho is set to return after an injury before the season. That should boost the run game as well as pass protection.
The perfect scenario is BYU controlling the game on the ground enough to where Bachmeier doesn’t need to air it out much. One thing to watch is that ECU actually has a good run defense, ranking seventh in the FBS with under 59 rushing yards allowed this year. However, they haven’t faced a front like BYU’s. The Pirates have a pair of productive linebackers in Samuel Dankah and Dameon Wilson. Cornerback Jordy Lowery is someone to target for the Cougars. He has allowed a 145.3 passer rating when targeted. Between Chase Roberts, Cody Hagen, and Carsen Ryan, there are some soft spots to take advantage of in the passing game. Even if they have to move on without the injured Jojo Phillips.
How BYU Can Win
BYU cannot afford to do what it did against Stanford. That is, rely on ECU to make plenty of mistakes to bail out a lackluster offense for the Cougars. ECU is better than Stanford and this is in Greenville. They must get the running game going with Martin and sprinkle in some runs for Bachmeier to keep the defense on their heels. Even if ECU lands a few punches in their passing game, BYU’s defense is good enough to contain it over four quarters so long as they are not facing short fields due to BYU’s offense not doing their part.
BYU needs to rely on their lines. The Cougars have bigger, more talented players on both sides of the trenches. If they stay out of their own way by avoiding penalties and mental mistakes, they should not only win, but cover the spread.
Prediction: BYU 30, ECU 20
