According to the New York Times/The Athletic playoff simulator, there’s only a 60 percent chance of the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears getting a rubber match in Chicago for the wild card round, despite the Packers being locked into the NFC’s seventh seed and the Bears currently holding onto the NFC’s second seed.
Here’s how the second seed math works right now, according to The Athletic.
If the Bears beat the Detroit Lions on Sunday, Chicago will lock in the second seed. If they lose, the Bears only
have a 13 percent chance of being the second seed because of how likely it is that the Philadelphia Eagles will beat the Washington Commanders.
The only way for the Packers to play anyone but the Bears in the playoffs is if Chicago loses and Philadelphia wins in Week 18. But in the mind of the playoff simulator, that’s not an unlikely outcome. In that scenario, a seventh-seeded Green Bay would go and visit the second-seeded Eagles in the wild-card round, just like last season.
Basically, if you’re a Packers fan rooting for a Bears rematch this postseason, you’re either going to be a Lions fan on Sunday or a Bears AND Commanders fan for the late slate.
The Bears are just 1.5-point favorites at home against the Lions on DraftKings, while the Eagles are 7.5-point favorites at home over the Commanders. Interestingly, the Packers are 6.5-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings, a sign that books believe that Green Bay will sit their starters, despite head coach Matt LaFleur saying the decision has yet to be made.
The Packers will play at noon CT, while both the Bears and Eagles will kick off at 4:25 pm CT on Sunday.
