The San Francisco 49ers have a 90 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN’s FPI. As it stands, the Niners are projected to finish with 11 wins and the fourth-best record in the NFC. The bad news is that there are two other teams above San Francisco in their own division.
Let’s take a look at how the playoff picture in the NFC looks after Week 12.
NFC Playoff picture after Week 12
Here are the current standings in the NFC:
1) Los Angeles Rams 9-2 (4-2 in the NFC) 2) Philadelphia Eagles 8-3 (7-2) 3) Chicago Bears 8-3 (5-2)
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-5 (4-3) 5) Seattle Seahawks 8-3 (4-3) 6) Green Bay Packers 7-3-1 (5-2-1) 7) San Francisco 49ers 8-4 (8-2) 8) Detroit Lions 7-4 (4-3) 9) Carolina Panthers 6-6 (4-3) 10) Dallas Cowboys 5-5-1 (3-4-1)
These are the teams fighting for playoff spots, and the only reason we’re entertaining Carolina is because of how banged up Tampa is. Let’s continue that theme and work from the bottom up.
Dallas looks dangerous. They were down 21-0 to the Eagles on Sunday, but never felt out of the game. That is a lethal offense with weapons, and not a team you want to play in the postseason.
For a couple of weeks in a row, we’ve been talking about how Detroit is among the NFC’s elite. Eh. Losing Sam Laporta looks to be a bigger deal than anticipated. That defense is suffering from injuries, and it showed as they struggled to slow down Jameis Winston. The Lions have the most dangerous offensive weapon in Jahmyr Gibbs, but they’ve shown enough cracks in recent weeks to be concerned.
There’s no shame in winning ugly in the NFL. The 49ers’ Week 12 win looks ugly due to multiple turnovers. A month from now, if the Niners are still on a winning streak, not a single soul will care about what happened on Monday night football. Now, if the offense continues to stall, questions will arise. Either way, playoff teams aren’t signing up to face Kyle Shanahan in the postseason. Good luck with that.
The Packers have replaced the Lions as one of the teams to beat in the NFC for me. They didn’t have to do much of anything against the Vikings, but they did show what a potent pass rush looks like. Getting Jayden Reed back should make their offense look better than it has. Green Bay is legit.
Seattle’s score looked closer than it was, with the Titans scoring with no time remaining on the clock. You still are sitting back and waiting for Sam Darnold to turn into a pumpkin. He doesn’t throw the ball nearly enough to make a mistake. The defense is good enough to keep the Seahawks in every game. It’s the best defense in the conference.
The Bears have the quarterback and head coach to make some noise, and they are starting to figure out which offensive weapons they have. But Mason Rudolph moved the ball and scored more than anybody would have expected. What happens when Chicago plays a quality offense? Their schedule is as difficult as it gets going forward. So, we’ll find out.
The Eagles are who we thought they were: Flawed. The offense is lousy. The defense is good, but they have holes where you can’t have holes, which is in the secondary. They lost their rookie safety, and that could come back to bite them in January.
The Rams remain the class of the conference. The offense is unbelievably good. The defense looks better than it is because it is rarely forced to play with a neutral script. There are still questions about their secondary, too, but we may never find out if Matthew Stafford and company never punt.
We will not be discussing any of the other teams. You can guess why.
