Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, November 28 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: DATCU Stadium — Denton, TX
- Spread: North Texas (-20.5)
- Over/under: 65.5
- All-time series: North Texas leads, 2-0
- Last meeting: North Texas 24, Temple 17 — November 30, 2024
- Current streak: North Texas, 2 (2023-24)
Setting the scene
Everything changed for North Texas. The Mean Green were bracing for a College Football Playoff run, likely needing to win out to qualify for the 12-team bracket. The only blemish on North Texas’ résumé
is an October loss to South Florida, but in late November, Oklahoma State handed the team another loss — the loss of its head coach Eric Morris.
Morris accepted the job at Oklahoma State three days prior to North Texas’ regular season finale, which the Mean Green must win to solidify a spot in the American Conference Championship Game. Despite the move, he will continue to coach North Texas for the remainder of the season.
The underdog Temple enters this road matchup with significantly fewer distractions. At 5-6, the Owls can qualify for their first bowl since 2019, hoping to record the signature win they’ve been searching for in K.C. Keeler’s debut season.
Temple Owls outlook
Temple was in prime position for its first bowl game of the 2020s, sitting at 5-3 with four games remaining on the schedule. However, the schedule greatly amplified in difficulty and the Owls ride a 3-game losing streak heading into the regular season finale. Temple dropped lopsided results to Tulane and East Carolina and lost a 14-13 heartbreaker to Army, unable to control the ball for the final 9:53 of action for its second 1-point loss of the year.
After three-straight games scoring 14 points or fewer, the Owls aim to bounce back offensively. Temple does one thing extraordinarily well offensively, and that’s refrain from turnovers. Against Tulane last Saturday, the Owls committed just their third turnover of the year — ranking second to only UConn in the category on a national scale. Quarterback Evan Simon features an exceptional ratio of 24 touchdowns to one interception, serving as the model of efficiency with completion rates of 60 percent or better in eight of 11 starts.
Temple needs more verticality and explosiveness in the passing game, however, after three-straight games under 170 passing yards. Simon proved capable earlier in the season, and he’ll look toward wide receivers Kajiya Hollawayne and JoJo Bermudez, as well as tight end Peter Clarke to bolster an offense back to its October levels.
The Owls struggled mightily in the run game last week with 20 yards on 20 attempts. Fifth-year senior Jay Ducker hopes to prevent Friday from being his last collegiate game, aiming for his third 100-yard game of the season — and his teams are 4-0 when he rushes for 100 over the last two seasons.
Defensively, Temple has been excellent against the pass but has struggled against opposing backfields. Playing Army and Navy certainly skewed the numbers, but the run struggles persist beyond the service academies. A week ago, Temple allowed Tulane its first 100-yard running back of the year, and the Owls rank 122nd nationally in run defense. The back end is much more formidable, holding teams to a 59.3 completion rate with Ben Osueke and Jaylen Castleberry tallying seven pass breakups apiece.
North Texas Mean Green outlook
North Texas has not named an interim head coach as Eric Morris is currently expected to coach the remainder of the season. Despite the obvious obstacle, the Mean Green still have history to accomplish in the midst of their best season ever. This is the first season they’re ranked in the AP Poll since 1959, they have a program record 10 wins, and an American Conference Championship and the College Football Playoff are still in play.
North Texas ranks first nationally in scoring offense (46.3 points per game) and total offense (503 yards per game), showing virtually zero weakness on that side of the ball. Heisman-caliber quarterback Drew Mestemaker leads the FBS in passing yards at 3,469, and he’s throwing all over the yard with insane efficiency. The redshirt freshman’s completion percentage is 70.1 (highest among the 12 QBs with 3,000 yards) and his touchdown to interception ratio is 26-to-4 — finishing nine starts without a pick this year.
Mestemaker only needed 23 throws to hit 469 yards last game, and his wide receivers are YAC monsters. Wyatt Young is fourth in the FBS in receiving yards after a 295-yard explosion — the most yards in a game by any receiver this year. But Mestemaker doesn’t just target Young. He takes what the defense gives him, frequently involving Cameron Dorner, Landon Sides, Miles Coleman, and even tight end Tre Williams in the nation’s third-ranked passing attack.
Another target in the receiving game is Caleb Hawkins, who has 26 receptions for 306 yards and three touchdowns. But the true freshman tailback is even more renowned for his backfield prowess, producing 1,030 rushing yards on a 6.1 average and accruing an FBS-best 19 rushing touchdowns — scoring 12 in his last three games alone.
That trio aims to produce North Texas’ seventh 50-point outing of the year. The other side of the ball hunts takeaways. North Texas is fifth nationally with 24 turnovers produced, with nine different players recording an interceptions and nine recovering a fumble. The Mean Green are sound tacklers as well with one of the lowest missed tackle rates in the country. Linebackers Ethan Wesloski and Trey Fields embody that well, each producing at least 80 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss on the year. But not everything is perfect, as the team’s run defense is fifth-to-last in the FBS — one area where opponents can gain a significant edge.
Prediction
It’s an uncharacteristic week for North Texas, given its coaching situation and the players’ reactions. It’s not a situation you can replicate in practice, but the Mean Green can at least gain comfort in the fact Eric Morris plans to coach for the remainder of the season.
North Texas’ defense may let up some ground production to Temple in this regular season finale, but Morris’ offense is virtually unstoppable at this point. Its lone defeat to South Florida featured five turnovers, and the Mean Green still churned out 36 points in that game. Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins, and Wyatt Young will leave their footprints on this one, handling Temple to qualify for the American Conference Championship Game.
Prediction: North Texas 42, Temple 24
