As the Diamondbacks enter the final week of the season, their needs to make the postseason are quite simple. They need to win both two games more than the Reds, and one more than the Mets. It’s not going
to be easy, but the mere fact they are still playing games that matter, is a pleasant surprise, and quite remarkable. As has been well-recorded, they held an “EVERYTHING MUST GO!” sale at the deadline, and who can blame Mike Hazen? For the D-backs were nine games out of a playoff spot, and needed to pass five team to get there. But since then, their record in the NL is the best of any wild-card contender.
The offense has continued to do their thing, averaging 5.2 runs per game since the start of August. Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno have all posted OPSs in excess of .900. However, if anything has been key to the turnaround, it has been the pitching, in particular the rotation. Zac Gallen has been reborn, with a 2.82 ERA and the surprising success of Nabil Crismatt (2.53 ERA across 32 innings) was an unexpected treat. Eduardo Rodriguez (3.36 ERA) has also been much better. That trio have gone 16-3 post-deadline. The bullpen has continued being consistently inconsistent, but enough reliable arms have emerged to hold things together, more often than not.
Let’s see at what remains for the three teams chasing the final spot.
The contenders
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Record: 79-77
- Last ten: 7-3
- Remaining series: vs. LAD, @ SDP
- Tie-breakers: win vs. NYM, loss vs. CIN
- Odds: FG 6.3%; BP 6.6%;
Arizona might be the hottest team, having lost only one series (in San Francisco) since August 17, going 8-1-1 in the time. But have they left it too late? They will be facing two teams ahead of them in their own division, though realistically, neither have very much to play for.
Cincinnati Reds
- Record: 80-76
- Last ten: 6-4
- Remaining series: vs. PIT, @ MIL
- Tie-breakers: win vs. NYM, win vs. ARI
- Odds: FG 41.5%; BP 37.5%
It feels like the Reds have come out of nowhere, but they’ve basically been at or above .500 since early June. It’s just that the bar for a playoff spot has been dropping, while Cincinnati has held its own. They have won their last five, including a four-game sweep of the Cubs, propelling them to a spot where they would make it in, if the season ended today. The Reds haven’t won a playoff game since 2012, or a series since before the D-backs existed. So the pressure is certainly on. They have the easiest schedule among this trio: the final series in Milwaukee would be tough under normal circumstances, but the Brewers’ thoughts will be on the postseason. Though with a first-round bye, they shouldn’t need to rest anyone.
New York Mets
- Record: 80-76
- Last ten: 4-6
- Remaining series: @ CHC, @ MIA
- Tie-breakers: loss vs. ARI, loss vs. CIN
- Odds: FG 51.9%; BP 53.3%
The odds still have the Mets as favorites for the final spot, but I doubt you’ll find a single fan who feels that confident. They have been in a free-fall for more than three months, after they peaked on June 12 with an MLB-best 45-24 record. Since then, the Rockies are the sole NL side with fewer wins (and only by four!). If New York misses out, it will be one of the most spectacular falls from grace ever. As recently as September 19, Fangraphs had them at over 90% for a playoff spot, and they were at 96.6% earlier in the month. If they’re going to make it in, the Mets will have to do so away from New York. That might be an issue, since only four MLB teams have fewer road wins than their 31.
A rotten Apple
Looking back at the 156 games already played, there are plenty of “if only” candidates – losses which would have massively improved Arizona’s chances, had they managed to prevail. The one in Chicago where they scored ten runs in an inning. The contest against the Rockies where they led 7-2 at the seventh inning stretch. Any of the MLB worst seven defeats where the D-backs led going into the ninth. But if a single game in particular looms large right now, it’s probably the one on June 6th in Cincinnati. For there is currently a very real chance that the biggest reason Arizona will miss the postseason could be… Apple TV.
It was Friday night at the Great American Ball Park, part of MLB’s lucrative deal with Apple, where they get $85 million a year for two Friday night games. Arizona had a 3-2 lead when it began to rain, steadily growing harder until it was a deluge. The game deserved to have been called as a win for the Diamondbacks after five innings. Neutral observer Dalton Feely of Jomboy Media said, “Game should’ve been delayed in the 5th. The infield looked like a lagoon before the beginning of the 6th inning.” But the umpires carried on. While I was going to say “inexplicably”, it’s hardly tin-foil hat thinking to believe business came first, with MLB and/or Apple pushing for their previous broadcast to continue, regardless of credibility or even player safety.
“I was pissed. I spent more time screaming at the home plate umpire. I went out to the third base umpire on a couple of occasions between innings. I just said this is unacceptable and somebody is going to get hurt. You guys gotta be smart. It’s not in my hands, it’s not in anybody’s hands, no matter how much I kick and scream, it doesn’t change.” — Torey Lovullo
In the sixth, with pitcher Cristian Mena blatantly unable to grip the ball, the Reds tied the game on a home-run. Later in the inning, he spiked a pitch, which caught catcher Gabriel Moreno on his throwing hand. The tarpaulin then came out (surprise!), but the damage to Arizona had been done. With the scores now even, it was suspended rather than called. Cincinnati won in extra innings the next day, and Moreno ended up missing 58 games with a fractured right index finger (probably costing the Diamondbacks another win there). The dubious victory was the difference in the season series between the clubs, and gave Cincinnati the tiebreaker. Otherwise, it would have gone to divisional record, where the D-backs currently have the edge, with 25 wins to the Reds’ 23.
Conclusion
Obviously, the D-backs need to win as many of their final six games as possible. I’d say an absolute minimum would be taking both series and going 4-2. But even that would rely on the Reds having a losing record over their final six games, and the Mets being no better than 3-3. It really feels like 5-1 is more likely to be the target: certainly possible, especially if the Dodgers and Padres are distracted. Still definitely an uphill climb, and we will need all aspects of the team to be at or near their best for that to be a possibility. There’s precious little room for error, or off nights from our rotation. Even a single bullpen meltdown could prove a stake to Arizona’s heart.
Still, if you had told me at the trade deadline that the Diamondbacks would be playing meaningful baseball games in the final week of the season, I’d have looked at you very oddly. The manager comes in for a lot of criticism – some justified, some not. But all credit is due to Torey Lovullo for holding the team together, when it would have been perfectly understandable for the clubhouse to have fallen apart. Regardless of what happens, we have learned a lot about the team’s ability to compete, and it will hopefully put Arizona in a better position to compete again next year.
