Mat Ishbia is confident about the Phoenix Suns escaping the first round of this year’s playoffs. Is this fake-it-till-you-make-it internet bluster or are the Phoenix Suns built for playoff success?
It wouldn’t be the first time Ishbia expressed his confidence in the potential of the Phoenix Suns. To open the 2025-26 season, The Ringer predicted the Suns’
defense to finish at the bottom of the league, an assertion that Ishbia vehemently rejected. The Suns stamped his words with an exclamation point, finishing in the top 10 in defensive rating. Can the Suns do it a second time and deliver Phoenix its first playoff series win after three years of disappointment?
The answer to that may depend on who they play.
The following are my predictions of how the Suns might fare against the presumptive top 6 teams in the Western Conference in a seven-game playoff series.
Suns 0 – Thunder 4
The Thunder are the team that the Phoenix Suns are building to be. It was very clear in last year’s playoff matchups that the Thunder consistently turned aggressive defensive pressure on the perimeter and active hands into turnovers that sparked eight- to twelve-point runs. That’s exactly what the Suns have described this iteration of the roster to become over the course of the remaining years of Booker’s contract. I don’t think they get there this season. If the Suns want to avoid another first-round exit, they must avoid the play-in and the Thunder.
Suns 2 – Spurs 4
If there’s anything the preseason has shown us, it’s that the Suns have the Spurs number. Despite this, I think handling Wemby, in the manner in which the Suns have been able to contain him, takes its toll, and the supporting cast of Castle, Harper, Fox, and the refs are going to prove to be too much for the Suns to take down. However, I don’t think they go quietly into the night in this scenario and score at least two wins in a six-game scuffle.
*In the event of a Wemby-less Spurs. Suns 4, Spurs 1. Last year, Victor Wembanyama played a total of 1,866 minutes in the regular season. He went on to play an additional 750 minutes in the Spurs’ Finals run, totaling 2,616. In his rookie year, he totaled 71 games played and 2,106 minutes. He followed up with 1,527 minutes and 46 games played his sophomore season. If Wemby struggles to stay on the court, expect a very different playoff experience from the Spurs this season.
Suns 1 – Rockets 4
Houston is a team the Suns don’t match up well against. They have athletic defenders on the perimeter, size inside, and elite scorers that can close out games in the clutch. The Suns struggled in their regular season matchups against the Rockets last season, losing all four. The Rockets are in a similar position to the Suns, where they are leaning on a second year of continuity and improved injury luck to improve off last season’s disappointing finish. While I don’t think Houston is necessarily better than teams that I’ll discuss as possible series wins for the Suns, I do think they are one of the worst postseason matchups the Suns could face.
Suns 4 – Nuggets 3
Nikola Jokic has done his time with the Nuggets, and it shows. By this time next year or the year after, he will be teaming up with Luka on the Lakers and the Nuggets will sink back into the depths of the Western Conference.
Until then, I think the Suns, like every team in the league, will have their hands full with Jokic. This year with Maluach and possibly a healthy Mark Williams, the Suns will have the length and strength to at least make things difficult for the two-time MVP. Denver is, at the end of the day, a finesse team, and the Suns’ new physical defense could give Denver’s potent offense problems they haven’t been able to give them in past matchups.
Still, I think the Suns will need to run the total up when Jokic hits the bench, and the role players will have to deliver an outsized performance for that to happen. Add to that the altitude, and this is a series that screams out for the Suns to secure a 3-4 seed if they want to advance against the Nuggets.
Suns 4 – Lakers 3
The Lakers are retooling for life after Bron, but by the time the playoffs roll around, they should have most of the kinks worked out. There are questions about the defensive acumen of the Lakers’ starting guards, and the Booker/Green backcourt may prove too much for even the best defensive efforts of Luka and Reeves.
Answers to Luka Doncic on offense are hard to come by, and as the Suns saw in ‘22, home-court advantage doesn’t guarantee anything, but if the Suns sneak into a 5 or 6 seed, I like their chances against the Lakers better than a potential matchup against the Rockets or Nuggets.
Suns 4 – Timberwolves 1
Close your eyes and repeat after me. Suns first-round matchup against the Timberwolves. Now say this seven times in the mirror every morning until the playoffs start. This is the clearest path to backing up Ishbia’s bold claim. They moved off of the size that made Minnesota a difficult matchup in hopes of Lamelo being something he hasn’t proven to be in the NBA: a winner. If the Timberwolves make it through the regular season without completely unraveling, the Suns will mop them up in the first round.
There are still a lot of questions to be answered about who each of these teams are going to be by the time the playoffs roll around. There may be some young upstart teams, such as the Jazz or Trail Blazers, that sneak into the top 6. But it seems to me significant that Ishbia and the Suns organization feel optimistic internally. He didn’t set any expectations for the 45-win Suns team to win a playoff series last season. Mat Ishbia is always confident, but never full of expletive. If he says it will happen. I give it a 60 percent chance that it will. That’s a number.
To me, it all depends on who we play, but others might think differently. Let me know in the chat what teams you think give the Suns the best chance to advance, or which teams you think the Suns need to avoid at all costs.
