ESPN has a prediction system called Football Power Index, which uses a bunch of metrics and projections to simulate and predict outcomes. They use this system to create probabilities for the season, sometimes based on thousands and thousands of simulations. For example, their FPI system project the Detroit Lions to make the playoffs 71.4% of the time and produce an average of 10.5 wins this season—good for fourth-most.
Every year, ESPN takes one of those thousands of simulations and zeroes in on it.
How they select which of those simulations to dissect is not clear, but it’s presumed to be random. And this year’s simulation is one Detroit Lions fans would dream of.
The simulation—labeled simulation No. 9,187 by author Seth Walder—not only has the Lions producing an NFL-best 13-4 record (tied with the 49ers), but it has Detroit winning the Super Bowl over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Despite producing the best record, Detroit earned the NFC’s No. 2 seed, while the 49ers got the first-round bye. From there, the Lions won three straight games to get to the Super Bowl.
- Defeated the Packers 27-24 in the Wild Card round
- Defeated the Cowboys 27-20 in the Divisional round
- Defeated the Rams 20-17 in the NFC Championship Game
Talk about an absolute dream route to the Super Bowl. First, Detroit gets to take out their biggest rival in the opening round. Then they take out a Dallas team that has been an annoying thorn in their side for decades. Then, Jared Goff gets one more slice of revenge against the franchise that jettisoned him, while Detroit also potentially ends Matthew Stafford’s career.
A fun side-note from that game, Walder notes that Aidan Hutchinson wins Defensive Player of the Year over Myles Garrett.
Then, in the Super Bowl, the Lions take down a Chargers team in a thriller. Here’s Walder explaining what happened in the simulation.
Back and forth the game swung, with Cameron Dicker hitting a 55-yard field goal to put Los Angeles up 31-30 with 90 seconds left. But that was too much time for Goff.
After a chunk passing play to Jameson Williams, the Lions found themselves in field goal range with plenty of time remaining. They handed the ball to Gibbs several times to inch closer and burn Los Angeles’ timeouts. Jake Bates connected on a 42-yard field goal as time expired to win the title.
And as a sweet cherry on top, all the hype that the Chicago Bears are getting? It resulted in a 6-11 record for Ben Johnson and company.
Alas, the simulation is meaningless in the grand scheme of things. But here’s hoping the reality we live in isn’t too far from from Simulation No. 9,187.
