Oftentimes, debates about major individual awards in sports can become debates about semantics.
What does it mean to be or do the “most”?
The 2026 Most Improved Player (MIP) race is illustrative of the mushy malleability of “most,” and how one’s definitional parameters could produce a different, deserving winner. Let’s break it down.
A quick MIP shout out to NaLyssa Smith
For example, had she not suffered a season-ending injury, I think the Las Vegas Aces’ NaLyssa Smith was building a credible MIP case.
Focus only on the top-line numbers,
and her candidacy might seem confusing. This season, Smith averaged 11.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, numbers lower than those posted in her rookie and sophomore seasons with the Indiana Fever in 2022 and 2023.
Improvement, however, isn’t always about increasing. It can be about adapting and optimizing.
Instead of insisting upon being a primary option, Smith has accommodated her game to a supporting role, redirecting her energies and talents as a hard-working, highly-efficient post partner for A’ja Wilson since arriving in Vegas last season. At the time of her injury, Smith had converted 63.8 percent of her shots, the best mark in the league.
Since joining the Aces, Smith hasn’t necessarily been doing less—no one who was going as hard on the glass as Lyss was can be categorized that way—but she was doing less of what’s usually considered when assessing improvement.
NaLyssa’s improvement isn’t reflected in raw stats, but in the overall refinement of her game.
Carla Leite and Marina Mabrey still deserve MIP credit
That said, players who fit the typical notions of improvement—bigger roles and bigger numbers—still stand as the leading candidates to be the WNBA’s 2026 MIP.
At midseason, Edwin Garcia identified three players who were thriving with increased opportunities: the Dallas Wings’ Jessica Shepard, Toronto Tempo’s Marina Mabrey and Portland Fire’s Carla Leite. Recently, Zack Ward also highlighted Leite’s growth for the Fire. (Zack also foresaw Mabrey’s special season in Toronto.)
I agree that Leite, as well as Mabrey, still deserve consideration, although Mabrey’s injury issues over the second half of the season weaken her candidacy. Zack detailed Leite’s statistical leap. Mabrey likewise has maintained career-best offensive numbers, scoring almost 21 points per game, making over three 3s per game at 38.5 percent and getting to the line 4.5 times per game.
That both players have enjoyed vastly improved 3-point shooting seasons does raise some skepticism about their degree of improvement. Most advanced basketball analysts argue it takes about 750 attempts for 3-point shooting to normalize. That means a high volume of attempts is required to determine if a player has actually improved from deep, or is just on an extended hot streak.
In the WNBA, Leite hasn’t come close to taking 750 3s, shooting 17.3 percent on her 75 attempts last season as a Golden State Valkyrie before hitting 40 percent of her 85 attempts this season. Over her career, Mabrey’s efficiency from 3 has been a roller coaster. However, I buy that she has become more consistent from deep; she is a high-volume shooter who made it a point of emphasis to raise her fitness level during her offseason at Unrivaled, with that extra endurance making her long-distance efforts more reliable.
Dissecting the 3-point “improvement” of Leite and Mabrey isn’t intended to diminish them or their seasons; rather, it’s necessary to attend to such distinctions when trying to determine who improved the “most.”
Should Jessica Shepard still be the MIP favorite?
The third player Edwin analyzed at midseason, Shepard, arguably has been the leading candidate for much of the season, with her leap from Minnesota Lynx reserve to Dallas Wings All-Star starter serving as an illustration of how she has maximized her increased opportunity.
An eight-point scorer who grabbed 7.3 rebounds and tossed 2.6 assists in her just under 21 minutes per last season, Shepard now logs over 32 minutes per game, averaging a 14.2-point and 11.4-rebound double-double, while also dishing 5.2 assists.
Yet, it is worth asking if Shepard has actually “improved” or, as expressed above, “maximized her increased opportunity.”
Her efficiency has decreased, dropping from last season’s stellar 63.8 percent shooting to a still-strong 58.6 percent this season, although that dip is understandable with her increased usage. More critically, Shepard hasn’t really expanded her game. Her shooting range has not extended beyond the arc, nor even to the midrange. She also hasn’t she become more adept at getting to the line. Her defensive playmaking also remains a weak point.
I think Shepard has improved, but not as much as her raw stats might suggest.
Why the MIP trophy should go to Shakira Austin
All this leads me to the late entrant into the MIP race: the Washington Mystics’ Shakira Austin.
Austin, arguably, has both been optimized and maximized as she has steadily improved over the course of the season for the ascendant Mystics. As part of a crowded and talented Mystics’ frontcourt, Austin has received less usage compared to her past two seasons, but she’s scoring more efficiently and more often, registering a career-high 16.8 points per game on 48.9 percent shooting.
That offensive output has acquired an extra oomph because Austin also has stretched her game beyond the arc, becoming a credible 3-point shooter as she takes 1.3 3s per game and converts them at 34 percent. Her 5.7 free throws per game, another career high, also have elevated the threat she poses as an offensive player. At the line, she’s even upped her free throw percentage to a more respectable 72.6 percent.
The growth in Austin’s game hasn’t been limited to the offensive end, as she’s grabbing a career-best 9.4 rebounds per game, in addition to swatting a career-high 1.3 blocks. It’s defensive side of the ball, in particular, that distinguishes Austin and her improvement from that Shepard.
Austin’s improvement has been all-encompassing and escalating. She’s improved every aspect of her game, with that improvement occurring throughout the course of the season. The breadth and trajectory of Austin’s growth suggests it can’t be cast as an unsustainable streak of stronger play, but is the more permanent product of real, well-earned development.
At least, I’m convinced by Kira’s leap toward superstardom.
In the comments, let us know if you see Austin, Shepard or someone else as the WNBA player who has a improved the most, and be sure to tell us why.
