TCR Bracketology 10.0: Illini enter March searching for answers

On Friday, the Illini got a look at what an Elite Eight matchup would look like and came up depressingly short. Michigan played with an intensity and toughness that the Illini did not come close to matching and did not shoot well enough to overcome it. After being competitive in every other loss this year, Michigan put in perspective what a real title contender looks like. Of course, after a loss like that, the frustration leads a portion of the fan base to completely lose perspective.

• “Brad Underwood will never get us to a Final Four, much less win a National Championship, he needs to go.”
• “This team is going to get upset the first weekend.”
• “We beat the mediocre teams but lose to anyone with a pulse.”
• “Jake Davis needs to shave his head spaghetti after we lost on Jake Davis wig night, the team is suffering from bad juju.”

All of these,

except perhaps the last one, are complete overreactions. This team is still very good. They can and should at least make the second weekend, with a very good shot at the Elite Eight. Anything further than that might take a bit of bracket luck and A+ performances at just the right time, but all is not lost because we were outclassed by perhaps the best team in the country. It is frustrating that an obnoxious school like Michigan is better than us, but they (and Duke and Arizona) are almost certainly spending more money on their roster than us, that is just how college basketball works now.

Thanks to some carnage around them on the 2/3 line, Illinois is still a 2-seed at this point. Take care of business against bad Oregon and Maryland teams and win the first Big Ten tourney game, likely against either Purdue or Wisconsin, and Illinois would most likely stay on the 2-line and get a big home crowd feel in their first two rounds in Saint Louis. In the Big Ten tournament, if the Illini can get past that first game, it would most likely set up a rematch with Michigan in the semifinal, where we can see how the team adjusts to Michigan’s size and pressure the second time around. Do you think Illinois could fare better in a rematch?

East (Washington D.C.)

1. Duke (Greenville)
2. Michigan State (Buffalo)
3. Alabama (Tampa Bay)
4. Texas Tech (San Diego)
5. Tennessee
6. North Carolina
7. BYU
8. Villanova
9. UCF
10. Mizzou
11. Miami (OH)
12. Stephen F. Austin
13. Liberty
14. UNC-Wilmington
15. Navy
16. UMBC/Bethune-Cookman

Notes on the Region:

I caved and moved Duke above Michigan as the top seed overall like everyone else has, despite Michigan getting their best win of the year at the expense of the Illini. Michigan’s stranglehold on the metrics has slipped as Duke has surpassed them in BPI, NET, and KENPOM, which pushes me towards Duke considering they have the head-to-head win and Michigan’s quad 2 loss at home against Wisconsin. If things go chalk, Duke will have the opportunity to pull off the Michigan sweep with an Elite Eight victory over Michigan State.

Speaking of Sparty, Michigan State moves up to the 2-line after sweeping an Indiana road trip this week. Assuming BYU takes care of Mizzou, it sets up a rare 2-7 matchup where the lower seed is almost undoubtedly the more talented team. AJ Dybantsa will have to be careful to keep his NBA draft stock safe when going against the dark arts of Jeremy Fears.

On bubble watch, Miami (Ohio) needed a buzzer beater against a bad Western Michigan team to maintain their undefeated season this year. If they slip up in the MAC tournament, a very real possibility as John Groce’s Akron team is a very good mid-major again, it will bring up one of the more interesting bubble cases we have ever seen. No team with fewer than three losses has been left out of the tournament since it went to 64 teams. However, Miami has only beaten one top 100 opponent all year (Akron), has the 347th best Strength of Schedule and has predictive metrics in the seventies and eighties. Personally, I will put them in the bracket, most likely in the first four in Dayton, but I have no idea how the committee will handle it. Here is hoping that if they make the bracket as either an at-large or an automatic qualifier, that they do the world a favor and take out a team like North Carolina.

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Michigan (Buffalo)
2. Florida (Tampa Bay)
3. Purdue (Greenville)
4. Virginia (Philadelphia)
5. Saint John’s
6. Louisville
7. Saint Louis
8. Miami (FL)
9. Georgia
10. Ohio State
11. Texas A&M/New Mexico
12. South Florida
13. High Point
14. Troy
15. East Tennessee State
16. Merrimack

Notes on the Region:

Ohio State finally broke through with a signature win over Purdue on Sunday and created a little breathing room, with six teams between them, the cut line, and a tourney-less career for Bruce Thornton. If they can beat Penn State and Indiana this week, they will probably be locked in regardless of what happens in the Big Ten tournament. Lose either of those and they are in trouble. They get a first-round matchup here that could be a different kind of loser leaves town matchup: if Saint Louis beats Ohio State, maybe Ohio State considers firing Jake Diebler in favor of Josh Schertz.

Florida was looking like an 8-seed in early January but have probably been the second-best team in the country behind Duke in 2026 and have a realistic chance of catching UConn as the last 1-seed. To get back to the Final Four, they could take out a third of the Big Ten tourney teams, potentially getting Ohio State, Purdue and Michigan in succession. Florida and Michigan in particular would be a great match up between the two biggest frontcourts in the country.

West (San Jose)

1. Arizona (San Diego)
2. Illinois (Saint Louis)
3. Iowa State (Saint Louis)
4. Gonzaga (Portland)
5. Vanderbilt
6. Utah State
7. Kentucky
8. Iowa
9. NC State
10. SMU
11. UCLA
12. Belmont
13. Hawaii
14. Austin Peay
15. Wright State
16. Howard/Tennessee State

Notes on the Region:

This is the deja vu bracket for the Illini. The path starts out with the Mike LaTulip Bowl, as Illinois draws the walk-on turned analyst’s other alma mater. Wright State lost their only games to power conference teams Cal and Butler, neither of whom are likely tourney teams, by double digits, so I would not expect them to scare Illinois too much.

The second round is a rematch of last year’s second round. Otega Oweh is the key returnee, a strong guard who gets to the basket very well. If Kylan Boswell is locked in defensively, and Zvonomir Ivisic is wired to play his former school, that should sway the game in the Illini’s favor as the orange and blue have much more consistent scoring options. Still, Kentucky is a scary team as a 7-seed.

In the Sweet Sixteen, we get a rematch of the Sweet Sixteen from 2024, just with the seeds flipped. Iowa State will be aggressive defensively, putting two on the ball in ball screens. David Mirkovic and Tomi Ivisic will be the key making decisions after Keaton Wagler is forced to give it up. Tomi in particular needs to play much better than he did against Michigan if Illinois wants to pull this one out. While Illinois only has the injured Ty Rodgers remaining from that game two years ago, Iowa State has sniper Milan Momcilovic and point guard Tamin Lipsey still around, looking to avenge that loss.

Lastly on the deja vu tour, Illinois gets their third Elite Eight meeting with Arizona. I am looking at the backcourts in this one, as Illinois will need freshman phenom Keaton Wagler and savvy vet Kylan Boswell to outplay freshman phenom Brayden Burries and savvy vet Jaden Bradley in order to have a chance to make the Final Four.

South (Houston)

1. UConn (Philadelphia)
2. Houston (Oklahoma City)
3. Nebraska (Oklahoma City)
4. Kansas (Portland)
5. Arkansas
6. Saint Mary’s
7. Wisconsin
8. Clemson
9. Santa Clara
10. Texas
11. TCU/San Diego State
12. Yale
13. Utah Valley
14. North Dakota State
15. Portland State
16. Long Island

Notes on the Region:

TCU work their way into the bracket with six wins in their last seven games, while teams like Indiana, USC, and Auburn have self-destructed down the stretch and fallen out of the bracket. In fact, USC has fallen apart so much that star player Chad Baker-Mazara has decided to just quit the team after the loss to Nebraska. TCU has former Iowa point guard and guy-on-every-episode-of-Maury Brock Harding leading the team. They draw San Diego State, who could make a run from last team in to the Elite Eight and lose to UConn for the third time in four years potentially.

Wisconsin and Texas both loom as dangerous teams for a 2-seed to play. Wisconsin lives and dies by the three, using that formula to pull upsets against Michigan, Illinois and Michigan State. Texas has a potent offense powered by bullying their way to the free throw, with over 20 made free throws a game. Dailyn Swain and Matas Vokietaitas lead the charge down low, and if they can get Jojo Tugler and Chris Cenac into foul trouble, Houston does not have great interior depth.

First Four Out: VCU, Indiana, Auburn, USC

Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Cal, Seton Hall, Cincinnati

Bids By Conference:

SEC: 10

Big Ten: 9

Big 12: 8

ACC: 8

Big East: 3

West Coast: 3

Mountain West: 3