Aroldis Chapman was warming up in the top of the ninth inning with the Red Sox down a run just in case he was needed for the bottom half of the frame; but with the way this offense has performed all season, that felt like ownership drawing up World Series parade routes for the fall, just in in case.
Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox went down like church mice for the final three outs to fall to:
- 11 games under .500 for the first time since 2020
- 0-27 on the season when trailing by three runs or more at any point in the game
- 0-35 when trailing after eight innings
Perhaps the most surprising stat to go along with that last bullet is that the Red Sox actually lead all of baseball
in runs scored in the ninth inning in 2026 with 40. They just never score when they actually need the runs to tie the game or take the lead. Yes, the offense is bad, but it’s specifically abysmal when the game is on the line in a way that’s all but mathematically impossible.
Tonight was just another verse in the same rancid, repeating song that is the 2026 Red Sox season. The twist on this particular stanza is that the bottom third of the lineup actually performed pretty well while the top six guys when 2-24 with zero walks.
Nowhere was this more evident than in the bottom of the eighth inning when right after a Marcelo Mayer double cut a 4-1 Rays lead to 4-3. In this moment, the first three guys of the inning reached, the top of the order was coming up, and the Rays still had six outs to negotiate before the end of the game. How did the top six guys in the Sox lineup handle the opportunity? They went 0-6 and blew a golden opportunity to avoid all three deadly bullet points above.
I know I’ve mentioned this before, but I’ve never seen a team quite like this one. It’s not just that they’re the worse offense in baseball in high leverage situations (batting .214 with a .609 OPS), it’s that they’re 11th in baseball in medium leverage spots to go along with that. For instance, they actually have a higher OPS than the Yankees in medium leverage spots, but are almost 200 points behind them in high leverage situations.
One of the reasons this season feels like such a joyless slog is because there’s never any nights where they randomly come through in a big spot and mix in a comeback win amid the flood of loses and other deficiencies. Those are the beautiful breaths of fresh at the surface that keep you coming back in a season where you’re otherwise drowning. Even most bad teams with bad lineups find a way to sprinkle them in every once in a while, but not this group.
I keep thinking this has to change somewhat just by random chance, but maybe I’m just an idiot.
Three Studs
Marcelo Mayer: One nice thing about tonight is that there’s more signs Marcelo Mayer’s new toe tap might be paying dividends. Not only did he follow up yesterday’s home run with a big eighth inning double, but he also had a nice at bat in the third inning with a runner in scoring position where despite making an out, he got the ball in play with 107mph exit velocity.
Caleb Durbin: 1-3 at the plate, and he also made this wonderful double play in the first inning, which felt really important in the moment:
Isiah Kiner-Falefa: The only man in the Red Sox lineup with a multi-hit game, which pretty much feels like an automatic ticket into the stud section of the game wrap in 2026.
Five Duds
Ceddanne Rafaela: 0-4 with the lowest WPA in the lineup tonight.
Willson Contreras: 0-4 with the second lowest WPA.
Masataka Yoshida: 0-4 with the third lowest WPA (and boy has he looked awful over the last month).
Mickey Gasper: 0-4 with the fourth lowest WPA.
Together, these four went 0-20 and had a -0.58 WPA.
NESN: They didn’t get back in time from commercial to show the first pitch of the bottom of the third inning. Under no circumstance can this be allowed to slide!
